ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[BensonTCwatcher]

Marty Feldman references or not, the ASCAT pass confirmed that the NHC wasn't just rushing things just so they could have the scariest HC name ever...

[HURAKAN]

There wasn't even time for a TCFA to be issued!!! lol

maybe ex-Gaston used them all!!!

[wxman57]

We have IGOR!

TROPICAL STORM IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO
TIAGO...FOGO..AND BRAVA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 23.5W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 23.5W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 23.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.7N 24.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.8N 26.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.0N 29.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.5N 31.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.5N 36.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 16.8N 41.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 18.0N 46.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

[AussieMark]

18N by time it gets 46W is the forcast

sounds like this will be a recurvature.

[HurricaneBelle]

I prefer my Igor to be meaner and more devious looking than the cartoon version...

http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/6421/igordx.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Expect Abby normal weather with this one.

[ConvergenceZone]

18N by time it gets 46W is the forcast

sounds like this will be a recurvature.

Yea, based on it's location, recurving is expected.....

[OverlandHurricane]

Dr. Frankenstein just turned Igor out of the lab to terrorize an unsuspecting Atlantic.

Quite frankly, this name is too good to NOT be a major.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting snip from the discussion...



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WESTWARD MOTION AT AN INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...A TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...FORCING THE STORM TO MOVE
MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SHORT-TERM
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IGOR WILL INTERACT WITH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

[cycloneye]

[JtSmarts]

With the ninth storm named on Sept 8 it's hard to imagine not getting to at least 15-16 named storms at this point.

[StormClouds63]

Just my opinion and not an official forecast:

A system organizing this far out is most likely to feel the tug to the north ... once the pattern of CV storms pulling north was established in 2010, it's been impossible to break. High chance that this storm with the cool name goes out to sea ... a repeat of Ivan in 2004 very unlikely. KWT has been in the re-curve corner all season, and he's been right so far. So, Mr. KWT, will this be a fish with the coolest name ever ... or does Igor break the mold and push on to the west a bit further?

[HURAKAN]

6th named system since August 22nd, a period of 17 days or a named system every 2.83 days!

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think this has 60/40 chance of recurving vs. getting trapped based on the long term globals (which are just that long term) but I will be watching for the trend in the models to keep going that way. climo says low chance of crossing all the way across the pond which can't be discounted this far out either. ity will be days before we know though. There is still a pretty fair chance of it getting trapped though. Igor will demand attention apparently.

[Ikester]

But Bonnie, Colin and Gaston were big name wasters.

[Annie Oakley]

Such a frightening name! But I have to admit I love it. (The name that is)

[HURAKAN]

But Bonnie, Colin and Gaston were big name wasters.

If it's a tropical storm, it's a tropical storm. 35-knot storm still counts!

Every season you get a few "name wasters"

Like Lee in 2005, TS for 6 hours. That's a waste!

[ColinDelia]

I go into a meeting and come out and here is Igor. errr ... wow. Didn't expect that for a few days with all that shear

[jlauderdal]

With the ninth storm named on Sept 8 it's hard to imagine not getting to at least 15-16 named storms at this point.

well next week is the peak and its all downhill from there based on climo so really its not that hard to imagine although they have the itchy trigger finger over there this season

[RL3AO]

Should curve east of Bermuda, although if the ridge builds in, I guess it could make it all the way to Bermuda, or worst case, the NE Islands.

[jaxfladude]

IMAGE

Not enough of a curve there!
Hopefully Igor will be not too much of a problem for the CV islands and safely spins it's life out over open waters.....