SIO : EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-EDZANI (07S)

[HURAKAN]

Continues to get even more impressive

[Ptarmigan]

Quite an impressive tropical cyclone! El Nino is more favorable for the Southern Hemisphere.

[HURAKAN]

Visible coming in!

[HURAKAN]

In the middle of nowhere

[HURAKAN]

TPXS10 PGTW 072344

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI)

B. 07/2330Z

C. 15.2S

D. 78.3E

E. TWO/MET7

F. T7.0/7.0/D4.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE W/ CDG SURR YIELDING 6.5
W/ 0.5 EYE ADJ YIELDING 7.0 DT. PT YIELDS 6.0+. MET YIELDS 4.0.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/2002Z 14.9S 78.7E AMSU
07/2036Z 15.1S 78.6E AMSU


GATES

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JAN 2010 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 15:17:49 S Lon : 78:14:08 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 907.1mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.1 7.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -7.6C Cloud Region Temp : -78.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 291
WTIO30 FMEE 080031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/8/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/08 AT 0000 UTC :
15.2S / 78.3E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 923 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 10 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 350 SO: 320 NO: 300
50 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/08 12 UTC: 15.5S/77.2E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2010/01/09 00 UTC: 16.1S/75.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2010/01/09 12 UTC: 16.9S/73.9E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2010/01/10 00 UTC: 17.8S/72.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2010/01/10 12 UTC: 19.1S/70.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/01/11 00 UTC: 20.1S/69.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.0+
SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION WAS SLOWER OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
A DEEP CONVECTION BAND HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN SECTIR. EYE WAS
ELONGATED DURING FEW HOURS AND BECAME SMALLER ON THE LAST INFRA-RED
PICTURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY FAVOURABLE UP TO 36TAU
(PARTICULARLY, WITH A PERSISTING EQUATORWARD UPPER OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND A
POLAR ONE APPEARING BETWEEN 24 AND 36 TAU).
EDZANI HAS ENCOUNTERED VERY FAVOURABLE ENERGETIC CONTITIONS WITHIN
THE
LAST 18 HOURS. SST SHOULD LOWER SLOWLY NOW ACCORDING TO THE
FORECASTED
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM : EDZANI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MORE THAN
27OC
SST UNTIL TAU 48 (WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT) AND BEYOND SST SHOULD
LOWER
MORE RAPIDLY (S
OUTH-WEST MOVEMENT).
CONSEQUENTLY, EDZANI IS EXPECTED TO STAY STEADY OR WEAKEN SLOWLY
UNTIL
TAU 36 TO 48, BEYOND ITS INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY.
THE STEERING CURRENT IS A DEEP RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
AT
THE END OF THE RANGE FORECAST, A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD
STEER
IT MORE SOUTH-WESTWARD.
THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS WHICH ARE IN
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looking great. NRL - 125 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CrazyC83]

Looks more like 135 kt.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 78.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 78.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.9S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.7S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.6S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.7S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.9S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.5S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.9S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 77.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON HIGH
CONFIDENCE SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 125 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS
OF 6.5 FROM PGTW AND 6.0 FROM FMEE. TC 07S HAS CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. A 15 NM DIAMETER EYE IS EVIDENT IN 080000Z INFRARED
IMAGERY AS WELL AS RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A
POLEWARD STAIRSTEP OCCURRING SOMETIME AROUND TAU 72 AS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS THE STEERING
RIDGE SLIGHTLY. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO APPROXIMATELY MAINTAIN
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT PASSES OVER HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES. AFTER TAU 24, A
SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE IN RESPONSE TO
DECREASING ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE UKMET
MODEL SOLUTION (EGRR), WHICH IS DEPICTING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN
ANTICIPATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, IS TRACKING THE CYCLONE WITH
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AS THE SOLE WESTWARD OUTLIER. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

08/0230 UTC 15.4S 78.1E T6.5/6.5 EDZANI -- Southwest Indian

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JAN 2010 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 15:26:19 S Lon : 77:52:15 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 900.7mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.3 7.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +1.8C Cloud Region Temp : -79.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[somethingfunny]

Wow!

[Squarethecircle]

Very impressive storm. Reminds me a bit of Hondo. The eye continues to clear on IR and VIS.

Update: A very low-quality 0830Z VIS suggests a pinwheel eye, but I can't really tell.

[Crostorm]

really impresive cyclone

[Squarethecircle]

Eye is round and quite clear:

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 132
WTIO30 FMEE 080623
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/8/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/08 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 77.7E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 350 SO: 320 NO: 300
50 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/08 18 UTC: 16.0S/76.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2010/01/09 06 UTC: 16.9S/74.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2010/01/09 18 UTC: 17.7S/72.9E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2010/01/10 06 UTC: 18.8S/71.5E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2010/01/10 18 UTC: 20.1S/70.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
72H: 2010/01/11 06 UTC: 20.9S/69.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.5
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY FAVOURABLE UP TO TAU36
(PARTICULARELY, WITH A PERSISTING EQUATORWARD UPPER OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND A
POLAR ONE BUILDING BETWEEN TAU24 AND TAU36 AND SST ARE EXPECTED TO
KEEP
ON STAYING MORE THAN 27OC SST UNTIL TAU 48 (WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT)
AND
BEYOND SST SHOULD
LOWER MORE RAPIDLY.
EDZANI IS EXPECTED THEREFORE TO STAY STEADY OR WEAKEN SLOWLY UNTIL
TAU 36
TO 48, BEYOND ITS INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY.
THE STEERING FLOW IS A DEEP RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AT
THE
END OF THE RANGE FORECAST, A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEER
IT
MORE SOUTHERN
ECMWF ENSEMBLE PRECTION SYSTEM GIVES 2 EQUIPROBABLE SCENARI, ONE WITH
RECURVE MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE TROUGH, THE OTHER ONE WITHOUT.
THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVALAIBLE DETERMINIST NWP MODELS
WHICH ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM.=
NNNN

[Crostorm]

08/0830 UTC 15.8S 77.4E T7.0/7.0 EDZANI -- Southwest Indian

[Crostorm]

TXXS28 KNES 080845


A. 07S (EDZANI)

B. 08/0830Z

C. 15.8S

D. 77.4E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI

H. REMARKS... WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN W AND SURROUNDED BY CMG FOR DT=7.0.
MET=6.5 WITH PT=7.0. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

08/0457Z 15.5S 77.7E TMI


...SALEMI