SIO : EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-EDZANI (07S)

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Re: SIO : VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE EDZANI (07S)

#121 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 08, 2010 9:01 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 75.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 75.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.0S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.5S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.1S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.6S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.1S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.4S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.6S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 75.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1155 NM
EAST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY SPEED AND
DIRECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE HAS
BECOME BEEN ON A STEADY WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS
WELL, BECOMING CLOUD FILLED AROUND 082200Z. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 07S AND WILL CAUSE A MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 96. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING THE STR TO BEGIN BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF TC
07S AROUND TAU 96, PUSHING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. A SECONDARY
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07S WILL BEGIN TO
CAPTURE THE LLCC KEEPING IT ON A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWARD TRACK EVEN
AS THE STR RE-DEVELOPS. COMPLETE CAPTURE OF THE LLCC IS NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL AFTER TAU 120. DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BEYOND TAU 60 WILL CAUSE TC
07S TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND
100300Z.//

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#122 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 08, 2010 9:03 pm

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#123 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jan 08, 2010 10:20 pm

Combination of an ERC and shear it seems. Looks to be about 115 kt (weakened greatly the last 15 hours). Peak intensity was probably at 08/1200Z (150 kt).
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#124 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 09, 2010 12:16 am

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Re: SIO : VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE EDZANI (07S)

#125 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 09, 2010 6:49 am

ZCZC 333
WTIO30 FMEE 090647
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/8/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/09 AT 0600 UTC :
17.6S / 74.7E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 /W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 925 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 10 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 340 SO: 240 NO: 170
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/09 18 UTC: 18.9S/72.7E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/01/10 06 UTC: 20.2S/71.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/01/10 18 UTC: 21.7S/69.9E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/01/11 06 UTC: 23.2S/69.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2010/01/11 18 UTC: 23.6S/69.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2010/01/12 06 UTC: 24.5S/68.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0+. CI=6.0+
SATELITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVES DATA SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING, WITH A
LESS
DEFINED EYE. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE UNDERGONE AN ERC (AQUA
08/1959Z,
SSMIS 09/00005Z).
EVEN IF ENVIRONMENTAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN STILL VERY
FAVOURABLE
UP TO TAU 24 WITH A SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUILDING POLEWARD ON AND
AFTER TAU 24H, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COOLER SSTS AND
THEREFORE
OVER A LESSER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT (26.5 TO 27 CELCIUS DEGREES)
EDZANI SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITHIN THE
NEXT
24 HOURS THEN RECURVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), TEMPORARILY SLOW DOWN AS A NEW FAST TRACKING
STR
REBUILDS IN THE SOUTHWEST, THEN ACCELERATE BEYOND 60H AND START TO
EVACUATE.
THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVALAIBLE DETERMINIST NWP MODELS
WHICH ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND THE SYSTEM
MOTION.=
NNNN

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#126 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 09, 2010 7:20 am

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Very small storm
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Re: SIO : INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE EDZANI (07S)

#127 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 09, 2010 8:27 am

ZCZC 027
WTIO30 FMEE 091230
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/8/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/09 AT 1200 UTC :
18.3S / 73.6E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 925 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 10 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 340 SO: 240 NO: 170
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/10 00 UTC: 19.6S/71.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2010/01/10 12 UTC: 21.1S/70.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/01/11 00 UTC: 22.7S/69.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/01/11 12 UTC: 23.7S/69.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2010/01/12 00 UTC: 24.2S/68.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/01/12 12 UTC: 25.4S/67.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0+
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS ABORTED (TRMM 09/0539Z) AND ON THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM HAS STOPPED DEEPENING.
ENVIRONMENTAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER SSTS (26.5 TO 27 CELSIUS
DEGREES)
, LEADING TO A LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.
EDZANI SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITHIN THE
NEXT
12 HOURS THEN RECURVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), TEMPORARILY SLOW DOWN AS A NEW FAST TRACKING
STR
REBUILDS IN THE SOUTHWEST, THEN ACCELERATE BEYOND 48/60H AND START
TO
EVACUATE.
THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINIST NWP MODELS
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND THE MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM.=
NNNN

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Re: SIO : INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE EDZANI (07S)

#128 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 09, 2010 10:03 am

WTXS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 73.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 73.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.7S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.4S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.0S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.3S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.1S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.0S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 34.0S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 73.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1030 NM
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A WELL-DEFINED, 12-NM EYE AND A 091239Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DIFFUSE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WANING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH HAS CAUSED TC 07S TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC EDZANI WILL START TO
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH RE-ORIENTS
THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY
TAU 96, TC 07S IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF ANOTHER PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WITH DECREASING OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SYSTEM
INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
DESPITE PERIODS OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS FORECAST WAS
BASED ON THE JTWC CONSENSUS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF, GFS,
GFDN AND NOGAPS MODEL AIDS. THE UKMO SOLUTION IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER
TO THE WEST AS IT CALLS FOR A MORE ZONAL MID-LATITUDE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

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#129 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 09, 2010 2:49 pm

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#130 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 09, 2010 2:50 pm

ZCZC 840
WTIO30 FMEE 091809
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/8/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/09 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0S / 73.1E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 10 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 340 SO: 240 NO: 170
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/10 06 UTC: 20.3S/71.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/01/10 18 UTC: 21.9S/70.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/01/11 06 UTC: 23.2S/69.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/01/11 18 UTC: 24.0S/69.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2010/01/12 06 UTC: 24.8S/67.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2010/01/12 18 UTC: 25.8S/66.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0- AND CI=5.5+
INFRARED METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS A FLUCTUATING PATTERN WITH A LESS
DEFINED
AND COOLER EYE FROM 1400Z TO 1630Z THEN WARMING AGAIN ON THE LAST
INFRARED PICTURES (1700Z AND 1730Z).
1350Z TRMM SWATH CONFIRMS THE LESS DEFINED EYEWALL'S CONFIGURATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER SSTS (26.5 TO 27 CELSIUS
DEGREES)
, LEADING TO A LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.
EDZANI SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITHIN THE
NEXT
12 HOURS THEN RECURVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), TEMPORARILY SLOW DOWN AS A NEW FAST TRACKING
STR
REBUILDS IN THE SOUTHWEST, THEN ACCELERATE BEYOND 48/60H AND START
TO
EVACUATE.
THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINIST NWP MODELS
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND THE MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM.=
NNNN


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#131 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 09, 2010 6:09 pm

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Re: SIO : INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE EDZANI (07S)

#132 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 09, 2010 9:24 pm

ZCZC 715
WTIO30 FMEE 100033
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/8/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/10 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1S / 72.2E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 10 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 340 SO: 240 NO: 170
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/10 12 UTC: 21.9S/71.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/01/11 00 UTC: 23.1S/70.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/01/11 12 UTC: 24.1S/70.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/01/12 00 UTC: 24.9S/70.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/01/12 12 UTC: 25.6S/68.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2010/01/13 00 UTC: 26.6S/67.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+ AND CI=5.5
DESPITE INFRARED METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS AN TEMPORARELY IMPROVING
PATTERN
FROM 1730Z TO 2130Z, EYE IS COOLING AGAIN SINCE 2130Z.
2043Z AQUA 85GHZ SWATH REVEALS AN ERODED AND OPENED EYEWALL IN ITS
SOUTHERN PART.
EDZANI IS WEAKENING BUT SHOULD HOWEVER KEEP ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, SLOWLY WEAKENING ON COOLER WATERS (26.5 TO 27
CELSIUS DEGREES), LEADING TO A LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.
IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN
THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ON AND AFTER TAU24 SOUTHWESTWARDS AGAIN UNDER
THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
BEYOND TAU 48H, WEAKENING SHOULD BE CLEARLY UNDERGOING A NEW WESTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT.
AVAILABLE DETERMINIST NWP MODELS ARE NOT IN SO GOOD AGREEMENT THAN
PREVIOUS ONES WITH MORE SPREAD OUT AT MEDIUM RANGE.=
NNNN

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Re: SIO : INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE EDZANI (07S)

#133 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 09, 2010 9:38 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 72.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 72.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.8S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.2S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.6S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.6S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.0S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.0S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 34.9S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 72.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER VISIBLE IN
INFRARED IMAGERY, BUT WAS IDENTIFIABLE IN A 102043Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE
PASS. THE MOST RECENT DVORAK FIX FROM PGTW INDICATED THE EYE FEATURE
HAD WEAKENED TO SPIRAL BAND CURVATURE. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AS TC 07S TRACKS SOUTHWARD SEA SURFACE TEMP-
ERATURES (SST) ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF
DECREASING OUTFLOW AND COOLER SST VALUES HAVE CAUSED THE CURRENT
WEAKENING TREND IN THE INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SST
VALUES DECREASE FURTHER AND INCREASED INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES CAUSES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES TO INCREASE.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THE DOMINANT
STEERING SOURCE, HOWEVER, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS
GOING TO CAUSE TC 07S TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND ITS INFLUENCE IS LOST.
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO CAPTURE TC 07S,
RATHER AN EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL BUILD BACK IN TO THE SOUTH OF TC
07S AND CAUSE A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND TAU 36. A SECOND MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07S BETWEEN TAU 72 AND
96 AND IS EXPECTED TO CAPTURE EDZANI. THIS WILL LEAD TO TC 07S
STARTING TO MAKE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AROUND TAU 96,
WITH FULL ET EXPECTED BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN

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#134 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 09, 2010 10:55 pm

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#135 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 10, 2010 12:55 am

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#136 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 10, 2010 12:56 am

ZCZC 715
WTIO30 FMEE 100033
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/8/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/10 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1S / 72.2E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 10 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 340 SO: 240 NO: 170
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/10 12 UTC: 21.9S/71.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/01/11 00 UTC: 23.1S/70.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/01/11 12 UTC: 24.1S/70.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/01/12 00 UTC: 24.9S/70.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/01/12 12 UTC: 25.6S/68.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2010/01/13 00 UTC: 26.6S/67.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+ AND CI=5.5
DESPITE INFRARED METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS AN TEMPORARELY IMPROVING
PATTERN
FROM 1730Z TO 2130Z, EYE IS COOLING AGAIN SINCE 2130Z.
2043Z AQUA 85GHZ SWATH REVEALS AN ERODED AND OPENED EYEWALL IN ITS
SOUTHERN PART.
EDZANI IS WEAKENING BUT SHOULD HOWEVER KEEP ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, SLOWLY WEAKENING ON COOLER WATERS (26.5 TO 27
CELSIUS DEGREES), LEADING TO A LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.
IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN
THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ON AND AFTER TAU24 SOUTHWESTWARDS AGAIN UNDER
THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
BEYOND TAU 48H, WEAKENING SHOULD BE CLEARLY UNDERGOING A NEW WESTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT.
AVAILABLE DETERMINIST NWP MODELS ARE NOT IN SO GOOD AGREEMENT THAN
PREVIOUS ONES WITH MORE SPREAD OUT AT MEDIUM RANGE.=
NNNN


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Re: SIO : INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE EDZANI (07S)

#137 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:22 am

ZCZC 687
WTIO30 FMEE 100639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/8/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/10 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 71.7E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 947 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 13 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 360 SO: 190 NO: 270
50 KT NE: 055 SE: 055 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/10 18 UTC: 22.7S/70.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/01/11 06 UTC: 24.1S/70.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/01/11 18 UTC: 24.8S/70.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2010/01/12 06 UTC: 25.5S/70.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/01/12 18 UTC: 26.3S/68.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2010/01/13 06 UTC: 28.0S/67.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+ AND CI=5.5-
SLOW WEAKENING IS STILL ON THE WAY. EDZANI CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A
FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED EYE PATTERN CURRENTLY. MEAN DT OVER THE LAST 6 HRS IS AT
4.8
WITH SOME 5.5 RAW DT AT 01:30Z, 02:30Z AND 03Z, SO THE CURRENT T IS
WITHIN THE 4.5+/5.0-. CONSEQUENTLY, CURRENT INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN
LOWERED OF 5 KT F
ROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
EDZANI IS WEAKENING BUT SHOULD HOWEVER KEEP ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS (COOLER WATERS 26.5 TO 27 CELSIUS DEGREES).
IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS STR REBUILD
SOUTHWARDS. TRACK SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY TAKE A TEMPORAL
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS
COMPONENT AND THEN MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS.BEYOND 72H, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE MID-LAT.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT, UKMO AND
ALADIN-REUNION THAT STRONGLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AT TAU 24 AND THEN
BRING
IT ON A WESTWARDS TRACK=
NNNN


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#138 Postby Crostorm » Sun Jan 10, 2010 6:58 am

ZCZC 687
WTIO30 FMEE 100639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/8/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/10 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 71.7E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 947 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 13 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 360 SO: 190 NO: 270
50 KT NE: 055 SE: 055 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/10 18 UTC: 22.7S/70.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/01/11 06 UTC: 24.1S/70.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/01/11 18 UTC: 24.8S/70.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2010/01/12 06 UTC: 25.5S/70.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/01/12 18 UTC: 26.3S/68.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2010/01/13 06 UTC: 28.0S/67.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+ AND CI=5.5-
SLOW WEAKENING IS STILL ON THE WAY. EDZANI CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A
FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED EYE PATTERN CURRENTLY. MEAN DT OVER THE LAST 6 HRS IS AT
4.8
WITH SOME 5.5 RAW DT AT 01:30Z, 02:30Z AND 03Z, SO THE CURRENT T IS
WITHIN THE 4.5+/5.0-. CONSEQUENTLY, CURRENT INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN
LOWERED OF 5 KT F
ROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
EDZANI IS WEAKENING BUT SHOULD HOWEVER KEEP ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS (COOLER WATERS 26.5 TO 27 CELSIUS DEGREES).
IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS STR REBUILD
SOUTHWARDS. TRACK SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY TAKE A TEMPORAL
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS
COMPONENT AND THEN MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS.BEYOND 72H, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE MID-LAT.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT, UKMO AND
ALADIN-REUNION THAT STRONGLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AT TAU 24 AND THEN
BRING
IT ON A WESTWARDS TRACK=
NNNN
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Crostorm
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#139 Postby Crostorm » Sun Jan 10, 2010 7:01 am

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#140 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 10, 2010 8:12 am

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