SIO : EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-EDZANI (07S)

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JAN 2010 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 15:53:08 S Lon : 77:26:07 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 889.1mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.3 7.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +9.0C Cloud Region Temp : -79.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

Amazing

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Even more impressive

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 731
WTIO20 FMEE 081216
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 08/01/2010
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/01/2010 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI) 905 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 77.1E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING
UP TO
280 NM IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM
RADIUS
FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS
FROM
THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2010/01/09 AT 00 UTC:
16.6S / 75.2E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H, VALID 2010/01/09 AT 12 UTC:
17.2S / 73.4E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
EDZANI KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
THEN UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A POLAR TROUGH SHIFTING IN
ITS
SOUTH, SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS.
OVER THIS FORECASTED TRACK, WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS , SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY , THEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LESS WARM
WATER , IT SHOULD SLIGHLTLY WEAKEN.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

The last "Very Intense Tropical Cycone" was Adeline-Juliet on April, 2005

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JAN 2010 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 16:09:11 S Lon : 76:50:43 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 889.0mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.3 7.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +9.5C Cloud Region Temp : -78.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

Looking at it, my guess is that it peaked at 145 kt.

[Crostorm]

[Ptarmigan]

Quite an intense tropical cyclone!

[HURAKAN]

08/1430 UTC 16.2S 76.7E T7.5/7.5 EDZANI -- Southwest Indian

155 knots. wow

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 135 knots

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 77.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 77.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.8S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.9S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.6S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.7S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.0S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.0S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 26.9S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 76.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON DVORAK EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE
WITH A T-NUMBER OF 7.0 FROM BOTH AGENCIES. TC 07S HAS CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. A 15 NM DIAMETER EYE IS EVIDENT IN 081200Z INFRARED
IMAGERY AS WELL AS RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A POLEWARD STAIR-STEP OCCURRING SOMETIME AROUND
TAU 72 AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE SLIGHTLY. TC EDZANI WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IN
RESPONSE TO DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MOST OF
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS.
THE UKMET SOLUTION, WHICH IS DEPICTING A WEAKER SYSTEM, IS TRACKING
THE CYCLONE WITH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AS THE SOLE WESTWARD
OUTLIER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 846
WTIO30 FMEE 081219
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/8/20092010
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/08 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 77.1E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 7.0/7.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 905 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 120 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 340 SO: 240 NO: 170
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/09 00 UTC: 16.6S/75.2E, MAX WIND=120KT, VERY INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/01/09 12 UTC: 17.2S/73.4E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2010/01/10 00 UTC: 18.3S/71.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2010/01/10 12 UTC: 19.6S/70.0E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2010/01/11 00 UTC: 20.9S/69.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
72H: 2010/01/11 12 UTC: 21.8S/68.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=7.0-
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY FAVOURABLE UP TO TAU 36H
WITH A
SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUILDING POLEWARD ON AND AFTER TAU 24H.
EDZANI KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS THEN UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A POLAR TROUGH
SHIFTING
IN ITS SOUTH, SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS.
OVER THIS FORECASTED TRACK, WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS , SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY , THEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LESS WARM
WATER (26.5 TO 27 CELCIUS DEGREES) , IT SHOULD SLIGHLTLY WEAKEN.
THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVALAIBLE DETERMINIST NWP MODELS
WHICH ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM.
WINDS HAVE BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO THE VERY WELL DEFINED 08/0433Z
ASCAT SWATH.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Going up in scale

[CrazyC83]

Given all that, I would bump it up to 150 kt (blend of all the data), with a pressure around 908mb. But an ERC seems to be starting.

[cycloneye]

http://severe.worldweather.org/tc/swi/

ZCZC 647
WTIO30 FMEE 081818
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/8/20092010
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/08 AT 1800 UTC :
16.4S / 76.2E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/7.0 /S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 905 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 120 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 340 SO: 240 NO: 170
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/09 06 UTC: 17.4S/74.5E, MAX WIND=115KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2010/01/09 18 UTC: 18.4S/72.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2010/01/10 06 UTC: 19.6S/70.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2010/01/10 18 UTC: 20.9S/69.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2010/01/11 06 UTC: 22.0S/68.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/01/11 18 UTC: 23.0S/68.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=6.5+. CI=7.0-
SHOWING A QUITE ANNULAR PATTERN, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE REACHED ITS
MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY, CDO A LITLE LESS SYMETRIC, EYE A LITLE LESS
WARM
SINCE THE VERY LAST HOURS.
HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN STILL VERY FAVOURABLE UP TO
TAU
24H WITH A SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUILDING POLEWARD ON AND AFTER
TAU
24H.
EDZANI KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS THEN UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A POLAR TROUGH
SHIFTING
IN ITS SOUTH, SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS.
OVER THIS FORECASTED TRACK, WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS , SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY , THEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LESS WARM
WATER (26.5 TO 27 CELCIUS DEGREES) , IT SHOULD SLIGHLTLY WEAKEN.
THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVALAIBLE DETERMINIST NWP MODELS
WHICH ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Weakening

[HURAKAN]

2 days ago:

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 301
WTIO30 FMEE 090022
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/8/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/09 AT 0000 UTC :
16.9S / 75.5E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.5 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 910 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 115 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 340 SO: 240 NO: 170
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/09 12 UTC: 18.1S/73.5E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2010/01/10 00 UTC: 19.3S/71.7E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2010/01/10 12 UTC: 20.8S/70.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/01/11 00 UTC: 21.9S/69.3E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2010/01/11 12 UTC: 22.7S/68.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/01/12 00 UTC: 23.6S/67.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+. CI=6.5+
SATELITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVES DATA SHOW WEAKENING SIGNS, CDO A LESS
SYMETRIC, EYE LESS WARM.
EVEN IF ENVIRONMENTAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN STILL VERY
FAVOURABLE
UP TO TAU 24H WITH A SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUILDING POLEWARD ON
AND
AFTER TAU 24H, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE ALREADY SUFFERING FROM DRY AIR
INTRUSIONIN MID-TROPOPHERE.
EDZANI KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS THEN UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A POLAR TROUGH
SHIFTING
IN ITS SOUTH, SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS.
OVER THIS FORECASTED TRACK, WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS , SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SLOWLY, THEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LESS WARM WATER (26.5 TO
27
CELCIUS DEGREES) , IT SHOULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY.
THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVALAIBLE DETERMINIST NWP MODELS
WHICH ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM.=
NNNN