TIMOR SEA : INVEST 99S

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 1:14 pm CST [11:44 am WST] Sunday 3 January 2010

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Kalumburu to Cape Don, including Darwin.

At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
130 kilometres southwest of Darwin and
45 kilometres northwest of Daly River Mouth and
moving west northwest at 14 kilometres per hour away from the coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 36 to 48 hours.

GALES are not expected within coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however
GALES may develop later if the low develops into a Tropical Cyclone.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST]:

.Centre located near...... 13.1 degrees South 129.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1003 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Sunday 03 January [3:30 pm WST
Sunday 03 January].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Sunday 3 January 2010

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A developing Tropical Low, 1003 hPa, is located near 13.1S 129.9E, about 130 km
southwest of Darwin at 9:30am CST on 03 January, and moving towards the west
northwest at 14 km/h. The low may develop by Tuesday in the Timor Sea.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Monday: moderate,
Tuesday: high,
Wednesday: high.

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day...
Very low: less than 5%, Low: 5% to 20%,
Moderate: 20% to 50%, High: Over 50%.

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area between 125E and 142E,
including the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[Crostorm]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [3:30 pm WST] Sunday 3 January 2010

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Kalumburu to Cape Don, including Darwin.

At 3:30 pm CST [2:00 pm WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
135 kilometres west southwest of Darwin and
70 kilometres northwest of Daly River Mouth and
moving northwest at 5 kilometres per hour away from the coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 36 to 48 hours.

GALES are not expected within coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however
GALES may develop later if the low develops into a Tropical Cyclone.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm CST [2:00 pm WST]:

.Centre located near...... 13.0 degrees South 129.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Sunday 03 January [9:30 pm WST
Sunday 03 January].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Track

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [9:30 pm WST] Sunday 3 January 2010

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Kalumburu to Cape Don, including Darwin.

At 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
115 kilometres southwest of Darwin and
45 kilometres northwest of Daly River Mouth and
is currently slow moving over the Timor Sea.

The low may move further into the Timor Sea away from the coast and develop into
a tropical cyclone in the next 30 to 48 hours.

GALES are not expected within coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however
GALES may develop later if the low develops into a Tropical Cyclone.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST]:

.Centre located near...... 13.0 degrees South 130.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Monday 04 January [3:30 am WST
Monday 04 January].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [9:30 am WST] Monday 4 January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Kalumburu to Daly River Mouth.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth to Cape Don,
including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
175 kilometres southwest of Darwin and
90 kilometres north of Port Keats and
moving south southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

The Tropical Low is expected to develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONE on Tuesday
morning in the southern Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h are expected on the coast between Kalumburu and
Daly River Mouth during Tuesday.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may still develop between Daly River Mouth and Cape
Don, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands later on Tuesday if the Tropical
Cyclone forms further north than expected.

HEAVY RAIN is expected in the far north Kimberley region and the western Top
End, extending into the northern Victoria River District later on Tuesday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between WA/NT border and Kalumburu should listen for the next
advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST]:

.Centre located near...... 13.4 degrees South 129.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Monday 04 January [12:30 pm WST
Monday 04 January.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0211 UTC 04/01/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.4S
Longitude: 129.6E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [210 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [25 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1001 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 110 nm [205 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 04/1200: 13.7S 129.5E: 055 [100]: 025 [045]: 997
+24: 05/0000: 14.4S 129.0E: 085 [155]: 040 [075]: 990
+36: 05/1200: 15.7S 129.0E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 996
+48: 06/0000: 17.3S 128.3E: 150 [280]: 020 [035]: 1001
+60: 06/1200: 18.6S 127.7E: 200 [365]: :
+72: 07/0000: 20.0S 127.0E: 245 [455]: :
REMARKS:
Position based on Radar. Expected to become better developed during today in
response to the strong overnight convection near centre. Forecast to just make
Category 1 Cyclone before landfall in the southern Bonaparte Gulf during
Tuesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:1:24:13S130E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 0133 UTC 4 JANUARY 2010

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal four south [13.4S]
longitude one hundred and twenty nine decimal six east [129.6E]
Recent movement : south southwest at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24
hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds to 25 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots by 0000 UTC
05 January.
Rough to very rough seas and rising swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 04 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 13.7 south 129.5 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 05 January: Within 85 nautical miles of 14.4 south 129.0 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.


Next warning will be issued by 0730 UTC 04 January 2010.


DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 10:21 pm CST [8:51 pm WST] Monday 4 January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Kalumburu to Daly River Mouth.

At 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
40 kilometres north northwest of Port Keats and
215 kilometres northeast of Wyndham and
moving south at 6 kilometres per hour.

The Tropical Low is located off the coast and may develop into a TROPICAL
CYCLONE on Tuesday morning in the southern Joseph Bonaparte Gulf if it moves
further offshore.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop on the coast between Kalumburu and Daly
River Mouth during Tuesday.

HEAVY RAIN, which may cause significant stream rises and flooding of low lying
areas, is being experienced in the Darwin-Daly and east Kimberley Districts, and
is expected to extend into the northern Victoria River District later on
Tuesday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between WA/NT border and Kalumburu should listen for the next
advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST]:

.Centre located near...... 13.9 degrees South 129.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Tuesday 05 January [12:30 am WST
Tuesday 05 January].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Track

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S
130.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 129.8E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ORGANIZING MASS OF CONVECTION WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF MID-
LEVEL BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 032241Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE LLCC THAT ARE STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH A STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST. POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATION AND SHORE-BASED RADAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST [12:30 am WST] Tuesday 5 January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for a tropical low for coastal areas from Kalumburu
to Daly River Mouth.

At 12:30 am CST [11:00 pm WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
10 kilometres north of Port Keats and
215 kilometres northeast of Wyndham and
moving south southeast at 7 kilometres per hour.

The Tropical Low has moved onto the coast near Port Keats. As the low is now
expected to remain close to land, it is less likely that the low will be able to
develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONE. However, should the low move back over water,
there is a chance it may briefly develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONE on Tuesday in
the southern Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop on the coast between Kalumburu and Daly
River Mouth during Tuesday, if the system moves further into the Joseph
Bonaparte Gulf.

HEAVY RAIN, which may cause significant stream rises and flooding of low lying
areas, is being experienced in the Darwin-Daly and east Kimberley Districts, and
is expected to extend into the northern Victoria River District later on
Tuesday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between WA/NT border and Kalumburu should listen for the next
advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 12:30 am CST [11:00 pm WST]:

.Centre located near...... 14.1 degrees South 129.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Tuesday 05 January [3:30 am WST
Tuesday 05 January].


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre