SIO : INVEST 91S

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 10:25am WST on Thursday the 14th of January 2010
Valid until midnight WST Sunday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak low north of the Pilbara coast is expected to gradually develop in the
next few days as it moves to the west. The low is not expected to produce gales
today or on Friday but may reach cyclone intensity on Saturday or Sunday by
which stage it should be more than 500 km north northwest of Exmouth. It is not
expected to directly impact the coast during the outlook period.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region:
Friday :Low
Saturday :Moderate
Sunday :High


NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.7S 50.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER REGION OF TROUGHING WHICH EXENDS
FROM THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL TO LA REUNION. A 131609Z SSMIS PASS
SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WITH CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER THE LLCC. THIS SUPPORTS THE MSI ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LLCC AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
UNDER A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.7S 113.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED AND HAS BEEN FLARING OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 141319Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE LLCC WERE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS, HOWEVER BASED ON THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOUT THE SAME. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN
25 AND 27 CELSIUS NEAR THE LLCC, PROVIDING MODERATE SURFACE HEATING.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND HAS WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE STR. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS AT MODERATE TO HIGH VALUES TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC, AND
DROP TO LOW VALUES SOUTH OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 12:04pm WST on Friday the 15th of January 2010
Valid until midnight WST Monday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A low north of the Pilbara coast is expected to gradually develop in the next
few days as it moves to the west. The low is not expected to produce gales
during Friday but may reach cyclone intensity on Saturday or more likely on
Sunday by which stage it should be more than 500 km north northwest of Exmouth.
It is not expected to directly impact the coast during the outlook period.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region:
Saturday :Moderate
Sunday :High
Monday :High


NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90 -125E and
south of 10S.

[HURAKAN]

Easterly shear

[HURAKAN]

Sheared!

[Macrocane]

Sheared!

[HURAKAN]

Closer look

[Macrocane]

In the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season it would have been named "Danny" but it really looks bad.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
112.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 112.0E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE CENTER. A 151436Z ASCAT
IMAGE INDICATES A SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS. A 15/12Z
SHIP OBSERVATION FROM VRFN8, JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC, INDICATED
WINDS OF 180/20 AND SLP NEAR 1005.9MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER STRONG EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS. HOWEVER, THE STR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH WITH VWS
DECREASING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING THE LLCC TO CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.