SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F (12P)

[HURAKAN]

According to the last JTWC warning Oli has now winds uo to 115 kt that makes Oli the strongest tropical cyclone in SPO since Javier in october 2006.

Fiji says Oli has winds up to 100 knots and a pressure of 925 mb. Xavier reached 95 knots, 930 mb.

Link - http://www.wmo.ch/pages/prog/www/tcp/do ... Report.pdf

[HURAKAN]

Oli is the strongest since Percy, 2005.

Link - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Percy

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 FEB 2010 Time : 145200 UTC
Lat : 19:13:53 S Lon : 152:03:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 925.9mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.7 6.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.2C Cloud Region Temp : -79.3C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Crostorm]

here some video from bora bora storm surge

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUl5k0BNhAw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQ1BKh79Cm4

[Macrocane]

Oli is the strongest since Percy, 2005.

Link - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Percy

It seems that the SPO is getting over the last season's very low activity.

[cycloneye]

Oli is also crashing fast the SOI index as its close to Tahiti.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A19 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 04/1437 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [925HPA] CAT 4 CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 18.7S
152.4W AT 041200 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON GOES IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
WITHIN 480 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND BANDING EYE. OUTFLOW GOOD ALL
QUADRANTS. DVORAK BASED ON B EYE EMBEDED IN W IN YIELDING A DT=6.0,
PT AND MET ALSO AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24 HRS.
CYCLONE STEERED CONTINUES SOUTHEAST BY NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. SYSTEM LIES IN A RELATIVELY LOW-MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
CIMSS INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC NEAR 20.4S 151.5W MOV SSE 10KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC NEAR 22.5S 150.6W MOV SSE 10KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC NEAR 24.6S 149.3W MOV SSE 11KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC NEAR 26.7S 147.2W MOV SSE 12KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 042030 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

04/1422 UTC 19.1S 152.1W T6.0/6.0 OLI -- Southeast Pacific

115 knots

[HURAKAN]

Great microwave image, EWRC in progress?

[tolakram]

floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float6.html

[P.K.]

Now a 100kt cat 4.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A20 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 04/2011 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [925HPA] CAT 4 CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 19.5S
151.9W AT 041800 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 60NM OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200NM OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITHIN 480NM OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 360NM OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. SPIRAL BAND WRAPPING TIGHTLY
AROUND LLCC. TOPS WARMED PAST 3 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD ALL QUADRANTS.
DVORAK BASED ON LG EYE EMBEDDED IN W SURROUND YIELDING A DT=6.0, PT
AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT,
THUS T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24 HRS. CYCLONE STEERED SOUTHEAST BY NORTHWEST
DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. SYSTEM LIES IN A RELATIVELY LOW-MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. CIMSS INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST TRACK.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH SOME FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC NEAR 21.7S 150.9W MOV SSE 12KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC NEAR 24.4S 149.6W MOV SSE 15KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC NEAR 27.2S 147.9W MOV SSE 16KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC NEAR 29.8S 144.8W MOV SE 20KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 050230 UTC OR EARLIER.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A20 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 05/0144 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [925HPA] CAT 4 CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 20.5S
151.2W AT 050000 UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30
NM OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60NM OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 200NM OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 420NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. SPIRAL BAND CONTINUES TO WRAP
TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. COLD TOPS ABOUT CENTRE HAVE COOLED PAST 4 HOURS
AFTER BRIEF WARMING EARLIER. OUTFLOW GOOD ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK BASED
ON DG EYE EMBEDDED IN W SURROUND YIELDING A DT=5.5, PT=6.0 AND
MET=6.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T5.5/6.0/D1.5/24 HRS. CYCLONE STEERED
SOUTHEAST BY NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. SYSTEM LIES IN A
RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. CIMSS INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR
ALONG FORECAST TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND LATER SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION
IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC NEAR 22.9S 150.2W MOV SSE 13KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC NEAR 25.5S 149.0W MOV SSE 14KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC NEAR 27.7S 147.3W MOV SE 14KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC NEAR 29.6S 144.5W MOV SE 16KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 050830 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Becoming disorganized

[HURAKAN]

Looking better organized

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 20.5S 151.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 151.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.0S 150.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.6S 148.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.3S 146.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.5S 143.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 34.3S 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 150.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A 17 NM EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION DECREASING IN
AREAL EXTENT. THIS IS EVIDENT IN A 050012Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A SYMMETRIC EYE WALL WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WITH SLIGHT EROSION OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 12P HAS MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 TO 115 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 12P IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36. BY TAU 72, TC
OLI IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TCLAPS WHICH
RAPIDLY DECREASES THE INTENSITY AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN