SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE (15P)

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE - LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
300 PM SST FRI FEB 12 2010

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANU'A...

...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2 SOUTH 169.3 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MANU'A...OR ABOUT 80 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUTUILA AT 12 NOON
LOCAL TIME FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. IF RENE CONTINUES TO
MOVE ON THIS TRACK...IT WILL BE AT 14.4 SOUTH 170.0 WEST OR 30 MILES EAST
OF TUTUILA AT 6 PM THIS EVENING...THEN 14.8 SOUTH 171.0 WEST OR 30 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TUTUILA BY MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE RENE WILL BE AT THE CLOSEST
POINT OF APPROACH TO TUTUILA AT ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO
AT 9 PM TONIGHT.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A TUTUILA AND AUNUU.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1200 PM SST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2
SOUTH...LONGITUDE 169.3 EAST OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF MANU'A...OR
80 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUTUILA.

RENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH AND INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES
WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS RENE APPROACHES TUTUILA.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS ON MANU'A SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE HURRICANE EYE PASSES
MANU'A. AS THE EYE PASSES MANU'A...YOU WILL EXPECT CALM WINDS AND FAIR
WEATHER. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS WILL RETURN AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE MANU'A ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DO NOT LEAVE YOUR HOME UNTIL RENE MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM YOUR LOCATION.

ALL RESIDENTS ON TUTUILA AND AUNU'U SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY. PREPARATIONS SUCH AS SECURING TENTS AND LOOSE ITEMS...AND
TYING DOWN AND BOARDING OF HOME SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY NOW.

HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. FOR INTERESTS AT
PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR
HURRICANE RENE. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...YOU SHOULD HAVE SAFELY SECURED
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER
TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER
DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR EMERGENCY
OPERATIONS CENTER MANAGEMENT.

...WIND IMPACTS...
MANU'A...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR 40 TO 55 MPH SATURDAY MORNING.

TUTUILA AND AUNUU...SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INCREASING TO
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 65 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
DANGEROUS SURF HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 18 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH...EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES ON TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 6 INCH TOTAL ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RENE PARTICULARLY OVER TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANU'A.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 600 PM SST FRIDAY.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 13/0132 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [975HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 169.4W
AT 130000 UTC MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND TAU AWS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO
THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST
SEMI-CIRCLE.

COLD CONVECTION PERSISTING AND INCREASING OVER LLCC DESPITE BRIEF
SHEAR AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES. BAND TO EAST CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING
TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND NORTH BUT IMPROVING
ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE LIES UNDER A DIVERGENT REGION WITH RELATIVELY
MINIMAL SHEAR. SYSTEM STEERED BY EAST-NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. DVORAK BASED ON 1.1 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIEDING DT=4.0
PT AND MET ALSO AGREE, THUS T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 30C.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 15.8S 171.1W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 16.1S 172.7W MOV SW AT 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 17.6S 174.1W MOV SW AT 11KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 19.5S 175.5W MOV SW AT 12KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 130830 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 90 knots

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 13/0833 UTC 2010 UTC.

TTROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [970HPA] CAT 3 LOCATED NEAR 14.2S
169.8W AT 130600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 65 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST
SEMI-CIRCLE.

OLD CONVECTION PERSISTENT OVER LLCC DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. BAND
TO EAST CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD
IN ALL QUADRANTS. CYCLONE LIES UNDER A DIVERGENT REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MINIMAL SHEAR. SYSTEM STEERED BY EAST-NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR. DVORAK BASED ON
EMBEDED CENTRE, SURROUNDS DG YIEDING DT=4.0 PT AND MET ALSO AGREE,
THUS T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 30C. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.


FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 15.0S 171.3W MOV WSW AT 08KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 16.1S 172.7W MOV SW AT 08KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 17.8S 174.0W MOV SW AT 10KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 20.0S 175.4W MOV SW AT 11KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE..

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 131430 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE - LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
1200 AM SST SAT FEB 13 2010

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANU'A...

...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6 SOUTH 169.6 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH OF TA'U...OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUTUILA AT 10 PM
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HAS MOVED SOUTH 5 MPH DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR 15.0 SOUTH 170.1 WEST AROUND
4 AM SATURDAY...AND THEN NEAR 15.3 SOUTH 170.7 WEST AROUND 10 AM SATURDAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A TUTUILA AND AUNUU.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1000 PM SST FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.6 SOUTH...LONGITUDE 169.6 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF
MANU'A...OR 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUTUILA.

RENE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH AND INTENSIFYING DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS RENE APPROACHES SOUTHEAST OF
TUTUILA.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL RESIDENTS ON TUTUILA AND AUNU'U SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY. PREPARATIONS SUCH AS SECURING TENTS AND LOOSE ITEMS...AND
TYING DOWN AND BOARDING OF HOME SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY NOW.

HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. FOR
INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU
PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR HURRICANE RENE. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...YOU SHOULD HAVE SAFELY
SECURED YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER.

...WIND IMPACTS...
MANU'A...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO NEAR 40 TO 55 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TUTUILA AND AUNUU...SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN CONTINUE INCREASING
TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 65 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH BEFORE
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
DANGEROUS SURF HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 18 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH...EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES ON TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 6 INCH TOTAL ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RENE PARTICULARLY OVER TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANU'A.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 300 AM SST SATURDAY.

[HURAKAN]

Expected to pass very close

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 169.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 169.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.4S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.3S 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.9S 173.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.9S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.7S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 26.5S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.1S 176.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 169.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO-PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON A 130317Z TRMM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
SHOWING A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, THE 13/00Z POSITION
WAS SHIFTED 53 NM EAST-NORTHEAST. SUBSEQUENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
(130444Z SSMI, 130513Z SSMIS, 130612Z SSMIS) SUPPORT THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS ASSESSMENT, ALONG
WITH RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY, INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
CONSOLIDATED AND SLOWED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
TRACK AND TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAVE NOT CHANGED, TRACK SPEEDS THROUGH
TAU 48 HAVE BEEN DECREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE 13/00Z REPOSITIONING
AND CURRENT MOTION. ADDITIONALLY, THE TRACK WAS SHIFTED ABOUT 25 NM
CLOSER TO PAGO-PAGO. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.0 TO 5.O FROM ABRF, NFFN, PGTW, AND
PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD OVERALL
OUTFLOW. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FAVORABLE SST AND OHC CONDITIONS WITH IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM WHICH IS EAST OF THE MAIN
ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 60 NM SPREAD IN THE MODELS AT TAU 12
CENTERED OVER PAGO-PAGO. AFTER TAU 12, THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DIVERGE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING (COOLER SST AND HIGH VWS) AND DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING WESTERN STR. NEAR TAU 120 THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TURNING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Impressive, 949 mb

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

13/1500 UTC 15.5S 169.6W T5.0/5.0 RENE -- Southeast Pacific

[Derek Ortt]

I believe that ob was 994.9

[Crostorm]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 13/2005 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [950HPA] CAT 3 LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 170.2W
AT 131800 UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE NORTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE.

EYE BECOMING MORE DISCERNIBLE WITH VIS/IR IAMGERIES. BAND TO SOUTH
CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD ALL
QUADRANTS. CYCLONE STILL LIES UNDER A DIVERGENT REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MINIMAL SHEAR. SYSTEM STEERED BY EAST-NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR. DVORAK BASED ON
CDO MEASURING 153NM WITH BF OF 0.5 YIEDING DT=5.5 PT=5.0 MET=5.0. FT
BASED ON PT,
THUS T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 28-29C. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.


FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 16.9S 171.3W MOV SW AT 08KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 18.4S 172.6W MOV SW AT 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 20.2S 173.9W MOV SW AT 11KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 22.1S 175.3W MOV SW AT 12KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 132030 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

That's a small eye

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 100 knots

[HURAKAN]

I believe that ob was 994.9

Oops, sorry. Got too excited.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE - LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
1200 PM SST SAT FEB 13 2010

...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANU'A...

...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2 SOUTH 170.4 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES
SOUTH OF TUTUILA AT 10 AM SATURDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 MPH. AT THIS MOVEMENT AND TRACK...RENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER
AWAY FROM AMERICAN SAMOA.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A TUTUILA AND AUNUU.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 AM SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.2 SOUTH...LONGITUDE 170.4 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF TUTUILA.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

RENE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH AND INTENSIFYING DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANUA...NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
DANGEROUS SURF HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 16 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO CONINUE...SUBSIDING
SLOWLY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

...RAINFALL INFORMATION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANU'A.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY
EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER
EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. ALL
RESIDENTS ON TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANU'A SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. THE PUBLIC SHOULD CONTINUE SECURE TENTS AND
LOOSE ITEMS DURING THIS PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 600 PM SST SATURDAY OR
SOONER IF CONDITION WARRANTS.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 170.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 170.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.1S 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.7S 173.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.5S 175.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.4S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.3S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 28.0S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.8S 176.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 170.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO-PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TC 15P HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEPENED CONVECTION AND
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 13180OZ 1-KM RESOLUTION
VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWING OVERSHOOTING TOPS OVER THE LLCC. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 100 KNOTS FROM PGTW.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IN A
REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TC RENE IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
FAVORABLE SST AND OHC CONDITIONS WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING (COOLER SST AND HIGH VWS) AND DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH
OF A DEVELOPING WESTERN STR. NEAR TAU 120 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TURNING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TOWARDS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Great microwave