SATL: INVEST 90Q ("ANITA")

[senorpepr]

SL, 90, 2010031012, , BEST, 0, 297S, 476W, 40, 1000, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Yep goes to show this is a TS in all but name at the moment. Would it be possible for the NHC to unoffically call this one, afterall isn't that what JWTC does in the Pacific?
Or is that not possible/worth while?

That's a sticky situtation there... NHC, by WMO regulations, is not responsible for that area... Brazil is. The NHC is providing weather products for the system as a service to our interests, but operationally, there's no difference between a 40kt polar low and a 40kt tropical cyclone. Essentially, the winds are the same and the impacts to seas are the same.

As for the JTWC... their customer is not the general public (to a degree). The service the Dept of Defense and are not (directly) a WMO enity. That's why they can call systems as they see it (although they avoid jumping the gun on WMO-provided names until that agency uses the name). (I say their customer isn't the general public to a degree because NWS in Guam and Pago Pago uses the JTWC forecast to base their public advisories to their responsible locals.)

So, in short, the NHC *is* unofficially calling this one. They don't have the responsibility to issue public advisories and whatnot, but they are calling it appropriately in their marine forecasts.

[MaxiBide]

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1130 AM EST WED MAR 10 2010

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SPECIAL STATEMENT. AS DETERMINED BY NOAA NESDIS...THE CYCLONE OFF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BRASIL IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
CYCLONE CENTERS NEAR 30S 48W. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25KT IN
CLOSED VICINITY TO THIS CYCLONE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
PREVIOUSLY SUSTAINED SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...IS RAPIDLY
DECOUPLING FROM THIS SYSTEM AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MID
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. IN A LULL BETWEEN
PERTURBATIONS...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT THE SHEAR ALOFT
MIGHT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SO CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT TAKES ADVANTAGE OF
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BUT AS THE STEERING FLOW IS
TO REMAIN FROM THE WEST...THIS SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO MEANDER
OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 30-36 HRS...THEN WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
THROUGH 48 HRS. THE TIGHT/COMPACT CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO FAVOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON THE SERRA DO MAR...WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 15-25MM/DAY THROUGH 24-30 HRS. MOST INTENSE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OFFSHORE AND IN CLOSE VICINITY TO THE
CYCLONE.

MODEL COMPARISON (VALID FROM 00Z MAR 10). THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 96-108 HRS...AS THEY SHOW A STRONG
SURGE ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM (CLIPPER LOW) ENTERING THE SOUTHERN
CONE BY MID CYCLE. THE GFS AND UKMET CORRECTED IN FAVOR OF A
DEEPER SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF NOW FAVORS A FASTER AND
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER PERTURBATION. BUT...THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM...
SO FURTHER CORRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE THROUGH DAYS 03-04...WHEN A
CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS PERU-
BOLIVIA/WESTERN BRASIL. IT IS TO CENTER ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN PERU/LAKE TITICACA REGION. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS OVER PARAGUAY/SOUTHERN BRASIL WILL BE DISPLACED
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS THE RIDGE ESTABLISHES...CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN BOLIVIA-PERU AND AMAZONAS/RONDONIA IN
WESTERN BRASIL WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND BETTER ORGANIZED...
WITH MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. OTHER ACTIVITY IS TO BUILD ALONG A
LINE FROM BAHIA/MINAS GERAIS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS PARA TO
NORTHERN AMAZONAS/SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY
TO CONCENTRATE OVER WESTERN BRASIL-PERU AND SOUTHERN COLOMBIA
THROUGH 36 HRS. THIS WILL THEN WANE TO 20-35MM/DAY BY MID
CYCLE...WITH ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH DAY 05.

ON THE SOUTHERN CONE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
PATAGONIA/BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST...AND THROUGH 24 HRS IT WILL MOVE ALONG 56W/57W TO
URUGUAY/RIO GRANDE DO SUL. THROUGH 48-72 HRS IT WILL THEN SHEAR
AS A BROAD TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC...WITH THE
LATTER ABSORBING THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. AT LOW LEVELS...THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE
TO MENDOZA IN ARGENTINA...WITH BOUNDARY TO DRIFT NORTH INTO RIO
DE LA PLATA/CORDOBA THROUGH 24-36 HRS...AND NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
BRASIL THROUGH 42-48 HRS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
RIO DE LA PLATA BASIN/URUGUAY WILL SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF 05-
10MM/DAY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN BRASIL ON DAY 02.

OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD TO ENVELOP AREA BETWEEN 115W-75W TO THE NORTH OF
55S. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL SUSTAIN THE NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION
OF A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH 48-72 HRS...WITH
BROAD TROUGH PATTERN TO DOMINATE AREA BETWEEN 70W-25W AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 30S. AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST DIVERTS SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS NORTH ACROSS THE DRAKE PASSAGE-TIERRA DEL
FUEGO/SOUTHERN CONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS WILL SUSTAIN
THE GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION/INTENSIFICATION OF THE POLAR TROUGH
PATTERN THROUGH DAY 05. A FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A CLIPPER LOW
THAT PULLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PATAGONIA BY 72 HRS...AND MOVES EAST
OF THE MALVINAS THROUGH 84-90 HRS. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST
POSSIBILITY OF A METEOROLOGICAL BOMB TO DEVELOP IN TANDEM WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY/VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS IS
TOO HIGH. THE INFLOW OF ENERGY WILL FAVOR SCATTERED RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN CHILE...MOST INTENSE EXPECTED ON DAY 03 WHEN THE
MAXIMA WILL PEAK AT 10-20MM/DAY. IN ADDITION TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONE...EXPECT A SURGE OF COLD/POLAR AIR
ACROSS PATAGONIA ON DAYS 03-06.

FLORES...SENAMHI (PERU)
LLANQUE...SENAMHI (BOLIVIA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)

[Derek Ortt]

looks a bit stronger than a TD and the BT has it at TS intensity

seems as if even NOAA is not on the same page regarding this system

[KWT]

Yeah I think BT is probably the right idea...

I can imagine the usual from Brazil, not believing its a TC, they can't form, bla bla!

[CrazyC83]

40 kt = tropical storm, not tropical depression. It looks a bit stronger, but would the winds get down to the surface well? Too bad they couldn't dispatch Recon down there.

Its official name would be Tropical Storm 01Q?

[senorpepr]

40 kt = tropical storm, not tropical depression. It looks a bit stronger, but would the winds get down to the surface well? Too bad they couldn't dispatch Recon down there.

Its official name would be Tropical Storm 01Q?

There is no official name, much like the last hurricane down there. Invest 90Q is just the NRL place holder. NHC is referring to it by Invest SL90. Both names are unofficial.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah I think BT is probably the right idea...

I can imagine the usual from Brazil, not believing its a TC, they can't form, bla bla!

Maybe it is time for Brazil to set up a RSMC for the South Atlantic (and perhaps the SE Pacific, although I am not aware of any storms ever forming there)?

[Cryomaniac]

Interesting system.

[Aric Dunn]

I think we are very bored.. luckily we are counting down the days pretty quickly to 2010 season
none the less i love to see weather oddities !!

[KWT]

To be fair though Aric this does appear to be a proper TS at the moment, nice tight system with decent convection given the water temps its under at the moment.

[JonathanBelles]

If this is a TD, why hasnt it changed on CIMSS or NRL? Somebody should have thought of a plan for the possibility of a TC down there, especially after 2004.

[MaxiBide]

10/1745 UTC 29.9S 46.6W T2.5/2.5 INVEST -- South Atlantic

[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC Best Track

Mantains at 40kts.

SL, 90, 2010031018, , BEST, 0, 298S, 467W, 40, 1000, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[HURAKAN]

It looks partially exposed but overall, great system

[KWT]

If this is a TD, why hasnt it changed on CIMSS or NRL? Somebody should have thought of a plan for the possibility of a TC down there, especially after 2004.

Because I believe there is no offical policy down in that part of the world. Brazil I'd imagine are responsible but they didn't even recognize Catrina as a tropical cyclone lol!
Correct me if I'm wrong on that though!

Still it does look pretty decent it has to be said!

[P.K.]

TAFB are also at T2.5/2.5.

On the RSMC issue. They get so few tropical systems in this area I don't think it it really worth it. This low will be covered in the marine warnings (As it is right at this moment).

WWST02 SBBR 101900
1 31 05 02 12 20

WARNING NR 087/2010
ROUGH/VERY ROUGH SEA WARNING
ISSUED AT 1500 GMT - MON - 08/MAR/2010
AREA ALFA. WAVES FM NE/SE 3.0/5.0 METERS.
VALID UNTIL 110000GMT.
THIS MESSAGE CANCELS AND REPLACES THE WARNING NR 082/2010

WARNING NR 092/2010
NEAR GALE/GALE WARNING
ISSUED AT 1400 GMT - WED - 10/MAR/2010
AREA ALFA N OF 33S AND E OF 049W, AREA BRAVO S OF 27S AND E OF 047W AND
SOUTH OCEANIC AREA N OF 33S AND W OF 042W. WIND SE/NE FORCE 7/8 WITH GUSTS FORCE 9.
VALID UNTIL 111200 GMT.

NNNN

[CrazyC83]

Yep appears to be a 40 kt TS right now. May have been 45 kt earlier.

[P.K.]

ASCAT pass from 1230Z showed a max wind of 20m/s (39kts) which is pretty close to that.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Looks like any sheared tropical storm