SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F/19P)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CrazyC83]

My guess is that it was 105 kt at landfall.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 179.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 179.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.2S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.0S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.0S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 26.6S 174.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 33.6S 164.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 179.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
A 10 NM EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, PHFO, KNES, AND
ABRF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TOMAS IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDE (STR) IN AN AREA
OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>27 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AFTER TAU 24 WHEN IT WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48 AND FULLY
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72 AS TOMAS INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. INTENSITIES WILL WEAKEN AS TC 19P APPROACHES THE
WESTERLIES WITH INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING OHC. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160300Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE WARNING 034 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 15/1307 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 930HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7 SOUTH
179.6 WEST AT 151200 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 16.7S 179.6W AT 151200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH 06 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 95 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 105 KNOTS
WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.0S 179.8W AT 160000 UTC.
AND NEAR 19.9S 179.6W AT 161200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 032.

[Frank2]

Hello again,

Tomas is tracking just east of the IDL, so it'll still be a "today" cyclone instead of a "tomorrow" one (lol)...

Frank

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Looking quite a bit more ragged there Hurakan looking at that image you've put up.

[Sheronz]

Latest IR.


Latest visible.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A19 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 15/1934 UTC 2010 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS 930 HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.5S 179.5W AT 151800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND ALSO RADAR. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH 08 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT
95 KNOTS INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

CYCLONE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN THE LAST 24 HRS. CYCLONE LIES
IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIROMENT. SST 28C. SYSTEM STEERED SOUTHERLY BY
THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS, DT OF 5.0 WITH A OW EYE
SURROUNDED BY LG. 24 HOUR CHANGE IN THE IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
UPPER OUTFLOW IS NOW RESTRICTED, THUS THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKEN 1.0 IN 24
HOURS, MET 4.5, PT NUMBER ADJUSTED TO 5.0, FT BASED ON DT AND PT,
THUS T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS. THE CONCENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS, AND THEN ON A FASTER
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A
INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND WEAKEN SOUTH OF 20S.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 19.1S 179.4W MOV S AT 08 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 21.3S 178.6W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 24.2S 176.3W MOV SE AT 18 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 27.7S 172.3W MOV SE AT 25 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AT
150230 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 179.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 179.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.5S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.3S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 27.2S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 31.4S 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 41.4S 155.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 179.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST
OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS
STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A 20-NM RAGGED
EYE. TC TOMAS IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND MAY BE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD AND
STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 36 THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 161500Z AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A21 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 16/0846 UTC 2010 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS 950 HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.9S 179.3W AT 160600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND ALSO RADAR. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH 12 KNOTS.

MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80
KNOTS DECREASING TO 60 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE, EASING BELOW 63
KNOTS WITHIN 18 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50
NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150
NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 120
NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. IRREGULAR EYE PERSISTS BUT INCREASINGLY
BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH BUT BECOMING INHIBITED
ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM IS STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. CYCLONE NOW ACCELERATING INTO STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH LG SHADE YIELDING
DT4.5. MET 4.5 AND PT=4.0. FT BASED ON MET, THUS
T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24HRS. THE CONCENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
ACCELERATION TOWARDS SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 22.5S 178.4W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 25.9S 175.8W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 30.3S 170.9W MOV SE AT 30 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 35.0S 164.5W MOV SE AT 35 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AT
151430 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Fiji declares state of emergency for cyclone aid

By PITA LIGAIULA (AP) – 4 hours ago

SUVA, Fiji — Fiji declared a state of emergency Tuesday and ordered troops to launch relief operations in northern regions battered by a powerful cyclone that knocked out power and forced thousands of people to flee into shelters.

Cyclone Tomas' onslaught began to weaken Tuesday, but the scope of destruction was not clear because communications were cut to the outer islands and to northern areas of Vanua Levu, the group's second-biggest island, that were hardest hit, officials said.

One death has been reported, and a nationwide curfew was still in effect.

Fiji's National Disaster Council declared a 30-day state of emergency for the country's northern and eastern divisions Tuesday, ordering troops to be deployed as soon as possible to provide relief, including food, water and basic supplies.

Packing winds of up to 130 mph (205 kph) at its center, and gusts of up to 175 mph (280 kph), Cyclone Tomas continued to blast through the northern Lau and Lomaiviti island groups and the northern coast of Vanua Levu on Tuesday, the nation's weather office said.

Matt Boterhoven, Fiji's Tropical Cyclone Center's senior forecaster, said Tomas was still a Category 4 storm, but was expected to weaken to Category 3 by late Tuesday as it moves into the open sea south of the island group.

Sea surges of up to 23 feet (7 meters) were reported in the Lau island group, which was hit head-on by the cyclone, causing major flooding, Boterhoven said, adding that the surges would take at least 36 hours to subside.

Rain had drenched northern areas with up to 14 inches (350 millimeters) over two days and was still falling.

National Disaster Management Office spokesman Anthony Blake said power, water, sewage and other services were disrupted in many northern areas, with all airstrips and airports closed and storm surges smashing into coastal villages and schools. More than 17,000 people were in 240 government shelters, he said.

Initial damage assessments will likely be made Wednesday, when airplanes are expected to survey the northern islands and Vanua Levu, Blake said.

The country's military leader, Commodore Frank Bainimarara, has appealed for international assistance, New Zealand Foreign Minister Murray McCully said, and the governments of New Zealand, France and Australia were trying to determine how best to help. The New Zealand air force was on standby to fly emergency supplies to Fiji and assist with aerial reconnaissance.

The capital, Suva, has been lashed by high winds and rains, and the government extended a nationwide curfew to Wednesday morning to keep people in their homes.

By Tuesday afternoon, flights had resumed into the main international airport at Nadi, on the main island of Viti Levu. There were no immediate reports of tourists being caught in the cyclone.

Late Friday, a 31-year-old woman was swept away by strong ocean currents in Vanua Levu's Cakaudrove province after she saved her two children from a storm surge, police spokeswoman Atunaisa Sokomuri said.

[CrazyC83]

23 foot storm surge? Or tide or wave heights?

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 179.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 179.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.9S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 25.2S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 29.6S 171.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 34.6S 164.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 179.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TOMAS HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AS IT ROUNDS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN PREPARATION FOR ENTRANCE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDES. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISTORTED AND ALIGNED
NORTH-TO-SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED, ASYMMETRIC AND
CLOUD-FILLED AS WELL. ACCORDINGLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
WEAKENED TO REFLECT A DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL ELEVATE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DRAMATICALLY
FALL NEAR 25S, OR TAU 24, ALLOWING FOR RAPID DECAY PRIOR TO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET). ET WILL BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 AS
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT UPSTREAM TROUGH. ET WITH WILL BE
COMPLETE NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

[HURAKAN]

Going down quite fast