EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E - DISCUSSION

[clfenwi]

WTPZ32 KNHC 162035
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010
200 PM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

...RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE MEXICAN STATE OF OAXACA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 95.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ESE OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM WEST OF LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTA MALDONADO WITH A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF
PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST OF OAXACA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN





WTPZ42 KNHC 162036
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010
200 PM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A PULSATING MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED AND A
RECENT ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE 25-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
OR 310/3 OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE
MODELS SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM INTERACTS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE WEST AND A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE
EAST. THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH MAINTAINS THE DEPRESSION AS A
SEPARATE SYSTEM...TAKES THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION
OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE
CENTER ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT THE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR MIGHT NOT BE SO FAVORABLE. AS A RESULT...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 15.0N 95.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 15.1N 96.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 15.3N 97.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 98.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 15.7N 99.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 16.0N 101.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 16.3N 104.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 16.5N 107.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

[KWT]

Looks like this system may well end up coming very close to land and if the system drags its heels thats going to mean the prospect of some possible flooding, the good news is at least its got more convection to the south than the north thanks to the shear.

I also agree with the NHC about the shear levels, I don't think the SHIPS have a good handle on the actual shear levels out there as the system clearly has a sheared presentation at the moment. Still seems like it has enough time to become Blas.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

WTPZ32 KNHC 162340
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010
500 PM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 96.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST OF OAXACA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

This one bears watching for the Tropical Cyclone tracker. Nice cyclonic flow setting up. D-Max may be worth the watching...

[clfenwi]

The sun sets over TD 2. Will it rise over Blas?



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[HURAKAN]

374
WTPZ22 KNHC 170236
TCMEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010
0300 UTC THU JUN 17 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST
OF ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 96.6W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 96.6W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 96.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.6N 97.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.8N 98.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.1N 99.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.4N 100.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 96.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN


584
WTPZ42 KNHC 170241
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010
800 PM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY CHANGED
LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 25 KT... IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. A 2318 UTC SSMIS PASS AND A 2003 AMSR-E PASS
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN
EDGE OF A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...BASED ON THE LATEST MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE
FIXES...AND THE 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/6. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOULD KEEP THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. THIS TRACK FORECAST
IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS ONE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FEELING SOME EFFECTS OF NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...BASED ON ITS SATELLITE PRESENTATION. HOWEVER...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IF CORRECT COULD ALLOW
STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER
AND REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INITIAL
SHEAR...POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND CURRENT LACK
OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 15.2N 96.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 15.6N 97.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.8N 98.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 16.1N 99.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 100.7W 45 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Track

[Chacor]

WTPZ42 KNHC 170834
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010
200 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA...ALONG WITH A 17/0330Z
ASCAT OVERPASS AND MEXICAN RADAR DATA...INDICATE THAT TD-02E HAS
DECREASED SOMEWHAT IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...IF ONE EXISTS AT ALL. CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE SINCE ABOUT 00Z DUE TO INCREASED
EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM A MASSIVE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION OVER
BOTH THE ISTHMUS AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 25 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY AND SEVERAL WESTERLY 20-25 ASCAT
WIND VECTORS NOTED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW BASED ON
EARLIER MICROWAVE FIXES. ALL OF THE MODELS BUILD A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL MEXICO
...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP TD-02E MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CYCLONE COULD BE INFLUENCED OR EVEN ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS
IS REFLECTED BY A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AT THOSE TIMES.

A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
IF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE. BY 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...PROBABLY DUE TO THE
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPRESSION. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS LOWERED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN LINE WITH THE LGEM AND SHIFOR MODELS.

IF A WEAKENING TREND BECOMES MORE EVIDENT...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 15.5N 97.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 15.8N 98.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 16.2N 99.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.5N 101.1W 35 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 102.4W 35 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 17.0N 105.1W 35 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 17.0N 108.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA

[KWT]

Yeah this system doesn't look as good as it did yesterday, looks to me like the shear has really made it hard for the system. I'd in fact say 92E looks much more like a depression right now than 93E, and I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC does indeed give up on this system.

[srainhoutx]

HPC thoughts this morning...

OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC CURRENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN BY VELOCITY POTENTIAL
ANOMALIES WITH TD TWO-E FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST ANOTHER AND POSSIBLY TWO MORE SYSTEMS
BEHIND THIS ONE WITH GENERAL WEST MOVEMENT ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
THE WARM WATER OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. SEE TPC/NHC FORECASTS AND
ADVISORIES.

[CrazyC83]

I'd stick a fork in it and kill it off...

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory

WTPZ32 KNHC 171438
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010
800 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 98.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS DISSIPATED.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.6 WEST. THE
REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...REMNANT MOISTURE AND SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010
800 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS DISSIPATED. THE GOVERNMENT OF
MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS
AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.

REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE MONSOON-LIKE
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 15.8N 98.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

Not surprising. Nothing there, really.

[KWT]

Yeah it was a very short lived system, I'd say 92L probably was more of a depression then this system was!

Still it certainly has fallen apart.

[I-wall]

Where is TD 2? 92L looked like more of a TD than this!

[Chacor]

It's dead. It dissipated overnight.