phwxenthusiast wrote:theavocado wrote:ClarkEligue wrote:a lot of changes have to happen at PAGASA, three hour warnings when a storm is about 24 hours from landfall, such as it should be an independent body...and get those freaking dopplers online!
I'm not sure 3 hourly warnings would do much. Numerical models are only run every 6 or 12 hours, depending on the model. I don't see that changing anytime soon: given the choice of applying new computer power to faster outputs or higher resolution, most of the time higher resolution wins.
Totally agree with the RADAR issue....
well they should not entirely rely on numerical models alone... they could look at the latest satellite images, wind and barometer readings to make a "rough" estimate as to how the typhoon is progressing...
i, too, can't wait for the radars to be online...
It does not take a rocket scientist, my dear.
The three-hourly warnings 24 hours before expected landfall only need to have the following:
- latest center fix (based on satellite imagery and radar)
- current speed and direction
- intensity estimate.
- landfall target area and estimated ETA
- ETA for eyewall and eye passage
- and upgrade warnings as much as possible....
Also maybe rehash the warning system:
if people by experience know that on a 4 step system, signal #2 is not that strong... will they prepare? a signal #2 by a strong 95kph tropical storm making a eyewall/center passage can be disastrous as exemplified by Conson.
they will certainly prepare if the warnings say
A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WARNING is over NORTHERN QUEZON, METRO MANILA, RIZAL, LAGUNA, CAVITE, BATAAN, BULACAN AND BATAAN. Winds of up to 95 kph with gusts of 120 kph are expected in the next 12 hours.
How about that?
they can still use the forecast reasonings for their 5am, 11am, 5pm, 11pm bulletins.
this so as not to catch us flatfooted.
