ATL : INVEST 99L - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Is this from Invest 98L by any chance because I remember it in the same location.

I was thinking the same

[Swimdude]

Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.

Everyone just seemed to ignore Hurakan's above post just for the sake of calling the invest pointless, so I decided to comment on it so it'll be posted again, in case you missed it the first time!

[Vortmax1]

Whatever their reasoning...this is our old friend the ULL that is now inland over Texas sparking up convection again:


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE ERN MEXICO COAST W
OF 95W S OF 25N ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH HUGGING THE
COASTLINE. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS NEAR 30N97W.

[KWT]

98L I believe went inland a little while ago, I believe this is the system behind it that is currently flaring up near the coast.

[HURAKAN]

Although I fully understand the definition of invest, I think this is the 1st time I see an invest tagged inland that it's not expected to develop

[KWT]

Clearly it does look good but as you say its inland and burying itself further inland, so probably won't last long...had it been 400 miles east, then we'd have had a lot more to be interested in...

[Ivanhater]

This one looks like it would develop if it was just a little east into the water. This is just another sign that things will be popping soon enough...

[Sanibel]

One last burst before being pushed inland in my opinion.

[KWT]

Yeah I have no doubt this one would have had a chance of developing if the system was siomewhat more to the east. Reminds me somewhat again of 2007 which saw several last minute bursting systems.

[fci]

This one looks like it would develop if it was just a little east into the water. This is just another sign that things will be popping soon enough...

Where are you seeing any correlation between this obvious short-lived Invest 99 and the season to come?

[Ivanhater]

This one looks like it would develop if it was just a little east into the water. This is just another sign that things will be popping soon enough...

Where are you seeing any correlation between this obvious short-lived Invest 99 and the season to come?

Of course this will not develop over land and will be short lived, but if this were over water just a little to the east, I'm sure it would imo.

The conditions are very favorable for this, looks to have a high above it. Only limiting factor is land. Take this and 95L that went into LA a few weeks back it is signs that an active season is coming.

We have has many strong waves move across the ATL basin this year and come August and September they will have better conditions to fully take off.

[fci]

I respect your opinion, you probably have more formal knowledge than me however I don't see the leaps you are taking in extending 99L to be any kind of indicator. Also, IMO there is no basis to be "sure" that if 99L were further east it would develop. Just my opinion.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

I believe that there could only be 1 reason that this invest was designated.

1) The Mexican weather service requested it to be tagged to see where the models take it to get an accurate idea of where the moisture would go. Sounds reasonable to to me since they were impacted by 98L, 02L, and Alex.

[Steve]

>>I respect your opinion, you probably have more formal knowledge than me however I don't see the leaps you are taking in extending 99L to be any kind of indicator. Also, IMO there is no basis to be "sure" that if 99L were further east it would develop. Just my opinion.

I don't mean to speak for Ivan, but I read what he was saying as look at 99L, 95L, (Bonnie and Alex too) and the signals are lining up for activity in the Western Basin this year. I'm sure there will be some Eastern recurvatures, Central Atlantic systems and whatever, but the signals seem obvious. If you look at all the key indicators, including things like sst's and oceanic heat content (water temperature profile), pressure anomalies in the Caribbean, fairly potent African waves, coalescence of activity west of 65-70, large concentric upper level lows migrating throughout the basin, strong Atlantic ridging, etc., it's pretty evident that strong signals for the hurricane system are in place. Extrapolate that out a month or two as we move through the summer's pattern and what do you come up with? What I see is Atlantic Ridging hasn't reached it's western-most "high-tide" point yet. It appears that beyond periodic weaknesses, there will be substantial Atlantic ridging, including off the SE US Coast. This should act as a blocking mechanism for both stronger and weaker systems and keeping them on a w/wnw course as they travel the ocean. Absent full dissipation, anything getting far enough west is going to landfall somewhere in our hemisphere. Further consider that the ITCZ hasn't lifted up that much, and that the majority of wave energy is still staying far enough south that they're not developing or getting entangled until they reach the EPAC. This all starts to change in August as the summer progresses. And next month as pattern evolution brings us to where the basin becomes favorable for stronger systems and they begin developing, you can reasonably assume that at least some of those storms will fall within the framework of the pattern they exist in (obviously there will be other elements). So rather than a random track year without some clear-cut signals, look for there to be some clustering of tracks.

Back to his point, it is obvious to me that the Gulf, Caribbean and Western Atlantic should have an abundant number of threats. Then, if you factor in that many of this season's indicators are in line with an above-average number of storms, you can reasonably conclude that if there are a lot of storms, and at least part of the set-up indicates that there will be Western Basin storms, there will be threats that have been telegraphed by 99L, 95L, Bonnie and Alex.

[vbhoutex]

Steve, Great post!! Unfortunately, at least in my eyes and the eyes of others I talk with the signals are all there as you describe. I wish they weren't, but they are so we must be extra vigilant and WE ALL SHOULD ALREADY BE PREPARED. I think the season has indeed already showed us that we are going to have a well above average season and that unfortunately translates into landfalls unless the ridging we are already seeing suddenly goes away, which isn't likely. I hope something unreal happens and we don't have anymore landfalls and only have fish storms, but that is wishcasting at its best. To those who are questioning the latest invest and speculating, email NHC and ask them why. They are always open to legitimate questions.

[chzzdekr81]

I respect your opinion, you probably have more formal knowledge than me however I don't see the leaps you are taking in extending 99L to be any kind of indicator. Also, IMO there is no basis to be "sure" that if 99L were further east it would develop. Just my opinion.

He never said he was sure it was going to develop, but it probably would have. And if you would have read HURAKAN's post, you would know why it's an invest right now.

[supercane]

No need for that kind of tone IMO. fci respectfully disagreed and got a respectful response. Only time will tell if this early near development truly is a harbinger of things to come. As for the whole invest thing, even Hurakan, after posting the definition, wrote:

Although I fully understand the definition of invest, I think this is the 1st time I see an invest tagged inland that it's not expected to develop

I agree that designating an invest for an inland system is indeed unusual given the typical behavior we have observed over the years.

Back on topic, no chance of development while inland. Next invest, please.

[Steve]

Thanks man. I'm of the same opinion. No doubt, many of us will spend several sleepless nights trying to make sense of something we have no control over. The threats look to be set up like bowling pins.

>>No need for that kind of tone IMO...

Who were you talking to - me or vboutex? If it was me, I didn't have a negative tone whatsoever. I was answering his point as to what Ivanhater saw as an "indicator." Again, he wasn't saying that an inland storm portended a lot of activity in the Western Gulf. He was saying that what you see in that inland storm (as well as 95L - I added Bonnie and Alex to the mix) is ripe conditions for legitimate scares down the road. I see it too. Obviously it is my opinion and appears to be his as well that things are looking sketchy. We live in the areas we're concerned about and have enough history with recent storms to heed what we're seeing.

If you were talking about vboutex, he wasn't being condescending or anything. He said was that, in different words, that it sure looks like the **** has a pretty good opportunity to hit the fan and wishing that away wasn't being true to what he sees. As for suggesting he email the NHC to ask them, I doubt there's anyone on the forum that wouldn't like to get their rationale. I sure would.

If it was some other post that got deleted, sorry about seeming to over-clarify things.

[chzzdekr81]

Thanks man. I'm of the same opinion. No doubt, many of us will spend several sleepless nights trying to make sense of something we have no control over. The threats look to be set up like bowling pins.

>>No need for that kind of tone IMO...

Who were you talking to - me or vboutex? If it was me, I didn't have a negative tone whatsoever. I was answering his point as to what Ivanhater saw as an "indicator." Again, he wasn't saying that an inland storm portended a lot of activity in the Western Gulf. He was saying that what you see in that inland storm (as well as 95L - I added Bonnie and Alex to the mix) is ripe conditions for legitimate scares down the road. I see it too. Obviously it is my opinion and appears to be his as well that things are looking sketchy. We live in the areas we're concerned about and have enough history with recent storms to heed what we're seeing.

If you were talking about vboutex, he wasn't being condescending or anything. He said was that, in different words, that it sure looks like the **** has a pretty good opportunity to hit the fan and wishing that away wasn't being true to what he sees. As for suggesting he email the NHC to ask them, I doubt there's anyone on the forum that wouldn't like to get their rationale. I sure would.

If it was some other post that got deleted, sorry about seeming to over-clarify things.

He was talking to me, but I don't think my post was disrespectful. Back on topic..

[KWT]

I believe that there could only be 1 reason that this invest was designated.

1) The Mexican weather service requested it to be tagged to see where the models take it to get an accurate idea of where the moisture would go. Sounds reasonable to to me since they were impacted by 98L, 02L, and Alex.

Yeah I think that sounds pretty reasonable actually and there is alot of moisture down there so it may well be they requested more data on it.