CPAC: 92C INVEST

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CPAC: 92C INVEST

#1 Postby Chacor » Sat Jul 31, 2010 9:16 am

Image

ACPN50 PHFO 311145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT JUL 31 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED LESS THAN 1200 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII HAS DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...THESE
WINDS MAY RELAX SLIGHTLY LATER THIS WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

$$

HOUSTON
Last edited by Chacor on Sun Aug 01, 2010 9:19 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: CPAC: 92C INVEST

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 31, 2010 9:22 am

What is the average for named storms in that basin? I guess is very low right?
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#3 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:38 pm

Are the models developing this?
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:56 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Are the models developing this?


Image
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Re: CPAC: 92C INVEST

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:56 pm

852
WHXX01 KMIA 311937
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1937 UTC SAT JUL 31 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP922010) 20100731 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100731 1800 100801 0600 100801 1800 100802 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 140.1W 11.5N 141.6W 12.0N 142.8W 12.7N 143.7W
BAMD 11.0N 140.1W 11.7N 141.8W 12.5N 143.3W 13.6N 144.5W
BAMM 11.0N 140.1W 11.4N 141.7W 11.9N 143.0W 12.6N 144.3W
LBAR 11.0N 140.1W 11.6N 141.8W 12.8N 143.3W 14.3N 144.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100802 1800 100803 1800 100804 1800 100805 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 144.6W 14.3N 146.9W 14.9N 149.6W 15.6N 152.5W
BAMD 14.8N 145.5W 17.6N 147.6W 20.5N 149.8W 23.1N 151.8W
BAMM 13.4N 145.4W 14.9N 147.9W 16.2N 150.6W 17.1N 153.5W
LBAR 15.8N 145.6W 19.4N 147.1W 22.2N 149.9W 25.1N 152.7W
SHIP 36KTS 33KTS 29KTS 27KTS
DSHP 36KTS 33KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 140.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 138.8W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 137.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

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Re: CPAC: 92C INVEST

#6 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:50 pm

HURAKAN wrote:852
WHXX01 KMIA 311937
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1937 UTC SAT JUL 31 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP922010) 20100731 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100731 1800 100801 0600 100801 1800 100802 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 140.1W 11.5N 141.6W 12.0N 142.8W 12.7N 143.7W
BAMD 11.0N 140.1W 11.7N 141.8W 12.5N 143.3W 13.6N 144.5W
BAMM 11.0N 140.1W 11.4N 141.7W 11.9N 143.0W 12.6N 144.3W
LBAR 11.0N 140.1W 11.6N 141.8W 12.8N 143.3W 14.3N 144.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100802 1800 100803 1800 100804 1800 100805 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 144.6W 14.3N 146.9W 14.9N 149.6W 15.6N 152.5W
BAMD 14.8N 145.5W 17.6N 147.6W 20.5N 149.8W 23.1N 151.8W
BAMM 13.4N 145.4W 14.9N 147.9W 16.2N 150.6W 17.1N 153.5W
LBAR 15.8N 145.6W 19.4N 147.1W 22.2N 149.9W 25.1N 152.7W
SHIP 36KTS 33KTS 29KTS 27KTS
DSHP 36KTS 33KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 140.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 138.8W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 137.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN



Thanks appreciate it!
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#7 Postby Chacor » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:57 pm

ACPN50 PHFO 312354
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT JUL 31 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A SHARP TROUGH CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII HAS DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...THESE
WINDS MAY RELAX SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

BURKE
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#8 Postby Chacor » Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:03 pm

Image

Good news for this is, it's not part of the ITCZ so there isn't any breaking away needed.
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#9 Postby Chacor » Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:36 pm

JTWC has issued a TCFA:
WTPN21 PHNC 312330
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N 139.9W TO 11.8N 145.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 312300Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 140.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 140.1W,
APPROXIMATELY 1010 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311914Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATE
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS LIMITED CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 311915Z ASCAT
IMAGE INDICATED NUMEROUS 15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AROUND THE LLCC.
OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW AND
LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS WEAK TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
FAIR. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK DEVELOPMENT WITH A
WESTWARD TRACK, WELL SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE
FORMATIVE BANDING AND ASCAT SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 012330Z.//
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#10 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:40 pm

Hmmm the agencies are actually fairly keen on this, how often has there been CPAC stuff in a La Nina, yet alone a moderate one like presently?
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#11 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 31, 2010 8:43 pm

Just need the shear to relax, and will likely have a nice small system...
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#12 Postby Chacor » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:07 am

ACPN50 PHFO 010545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT JUL 31 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII HAS DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...THESE
WINDS MAY RELAX SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.


$$

HOUSTON

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#13 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Aug 01, 2010 3:53 am

Wow. That area at 160W doesn't look half bad either. Isn't this extremely unusual in a La Nina season?

Or rather, wouldn't it be extremely unusual IF this manages to get named.
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#14 Postby Chacor » Sun Aug 01, 2010 7:19 am

Was upgraded way too early to medium IMO. TCFA's also not warranted yet. Down to 20%.

ACPN50 PHFO 011145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN AUG 1 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 1070 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII HAS DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.


$$

HOUSTON
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Re: CPAC: 92C INVEST

#15 Postby yzerfan » Sun Aug 01, 2010 9:27 am

Someone needs to grab the picture of those model runs, and repost it over in the 'Best of the LBAR' thread. Honolulu is doomed, I tell you.
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#16 Postby Chacor » Sun Aug 01, 2010 9:32 am

12Z SHIPS run isn't too positive on 92C:

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 27 25 25 28 30 34 34
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 27 25 25 28 30 34 34
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 21 21 23 25

Only makes 92C a TS at the four-and-a-half day mark.
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#17 Postby Chacor » Sun Aug 01, 2010 8:52 pm

Back up to 30%.

ACPN50 PHFO 020102 CCB
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN AUG 1 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A SURFACE CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 1040 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII HAS BETTER-ORGANIZED AND INCREASED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT VERSUS SIX HOURS AGO.
HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

POWELL
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:10 pm

Image

WTPN21 PHNC 012330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/312321Z JUL 10//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 312330)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7N 141.4W TO 10.9N 146.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
012300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N
141.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N
140.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 141.8W, APPROXIMATELY 935 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 011854Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 011700Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A MORE ORGANIZED LLCC WITH
BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
A 011854Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM INDICATES 20 KNOT WINDS OUTSIDE THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
NEAR THE CENTER WHILE THE SSMIS WIND PRODUCT DEPICTS 25-30 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW AND
LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS WEAK TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
FAIR. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK DEVELOPMENT WITH A
WESTWARD TRACK, WELL SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED BANDING AND STRENGTHENING WINDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 022330Z.//
NNNN
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#19 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:14 pm

I have a question... Why do most of the systems that develop in the central Pacific go west?
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Re:

#20 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:17 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I have a question... Why do most of the systems that develop in the central Pacific go west?


Steering currents are mostly from east to west.

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