ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[TheEuropean]

Here we go with the system in the eastern atlantic.



20 kts, 1009 mb

And to make it official:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008010622
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2010, DB, O, 2010080106, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912010
AL, 91, 2010073106, , BEST, 0, 86N, 332W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010073112, , BEST, 0, 87N, 337W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010073118, , BEST, 0, 88N, 342W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010080100, , BEST, 0, 89N, 346W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010080106, , BEST, 0, 90N, 350W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

Edit to add the link to the discussion in Talkin Tropics:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108736

[ConvergenceZone]

woot! Here we go.....Thanks for the update!

[Weatherfreak000]

[ConvergenceZone]

Convection continues to look strong as we head into the morning hours. All it needs to do now is break away from the ITCZ.

[Fego]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 97E.INVEST,

An invest is born... !!what a " labor"!

[bahamaswx]

Decent model support.

[Praxus]

Decent model support.

Yes this kind of consensus should cause anyone from the caribbean to the carolinas to be on pretty high alert. But of course its early so who knows how it will really track.

[KWT]

Strong looking convection, this one could well be our first real threat to the SE states and the Caribbean this season, conditions down the line, esp in the Bahamas region is looking pretty impressive!

[Vortex]

00Z Euro brings strong hurricane across SFL/Keys and into central Gulf.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0080100!!/

[Ivanhater]

Wow

[ConvergenceZone]

wow is right Ivanhater...I said yesterday afternoon that I wouldn't get too concerned about the flare up of convection because it could be gone by this morning. Not only is it not gone, but it's looking even stronger....

[KWT]

Probably needs to go upto 60-70% now, deep convection probably far enough north now to get going, as we saw with Ivan in 2004.

Hard to ignore the change around in the model support...let the real season begin.

[Steve]

>>00Z Euro brings strong hurricane across SFL/Keys and into central Gulf.

It's a couple of days faster and more southerly than the GFS. A couple more days of Euro runs showing a threat to the US East Coast or Keys will make next week ever-increasingly more interesting. And considering we're still a few weeks away from the meat of the season, things are starting to look sketchy. JMO of course, but the proverbial handwriting is on the wall and has been for a while.

[KWT]

Indeed Steve, only the UKMO manages to avoid land on this suite of the models...

Convection looks impressive right now even if we are at Dmax, and just subjectivly, it does look like a developing system to me right now, of course remember in this part of the basin we may have to wait till its near TS strength for an upgrade...

92L gave just a hint earlier in June about what may happen in this part of the basin...

[Ivanhater]

Looks like we are seeing a developing storm as we speak

[jinftl]

Not a forecast for 91L...but i can't help but imagine the news headlines if the next named storm....Colin....were to come ashore on Collins Ave (A1A on Miami Beach)....


Colin on Collins....

[chzzdekr81]

Looks like we are seeing a developing storm as we speak

http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/900/isaecatl.gif

I'm thinking Code Red at 8.

[bvigal]

[cycloneye]

Wow, I went to sleep with the dilema of which invest they would activate and the interaction between the two features and boom, there is one heck of a system developing as we speak. This is one of those systems that by the look of things, will affect many people down the road, so lets start final preparations and yes including myself.

[OURAGAN]

I didi not sleep well, i am a litte bit afraid about this system