ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

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Vortmax1
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#1601 Postby Vortmax1 » Sat Aug 07, 2010 10:53 pm

It turns out I was correct last Monday saying this system might not be a problem for anyone!
We have yet to see if Bermuda has a problem with Colin...but I doubt it will be much.

I hope the island peeps are happy now that I was correct!
I never want any strikes on my island friends.
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#1602 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 07, 2010 11:11 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:It turns out I was correct last Monday saying this system might not be a problem for anyone!
We have yet to see if Bermuda has a problem with Colin...but I doubt it will be much.

I hope the island peeps are happy now that I was correct!
I never want any strikes on my island friends.


You're speaking too soon. Don't jinx it. :D
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1603 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Sat Aug 07, 2010 11:16 pm

saying it looks ragged is a compliment now... not much to look at
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#1604 Postby Vortmax1 » Sat Aug 07, 2010 11:19 pm

You're speaking too soon. Don't jinx it.


You're most likely correct.
I'll remain quiet!
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#1605 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 07, 2010 11:58 pm

Image

rough night for Colin
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1606 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 08, 2010 12:06 am

Wow... HIDEOUS. What happened to the forecast of strengthening? :eek:
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#1607 Postby ozonepete » Sun Aug 08, 2010 12:06 am

HURAKAN wrote:
rough night for Colin


Yeah, as the NHC has said, this one is really hard to figure out. It should be doing better than this considering the atmospheric conditions there. Actually, the more I look at this the harder it is to figure out. I give up on this one for now! Although it's really clear that it has very strong southerly shear on its western side and really strong northerly shear on the eastern side. Just a really much more hostile environment than the data indicate.
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#1608 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 08, 2010 1:45 am

Even lower T numbers for Colin per SSD would not typically support a classified system:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
08/0545 UTC 30.7N 65.2W T1.0/2.0 COLIN
07/2345 UTC 29.3N 65.4W T2.0/2.0 COLIN
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#1609 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 08, 2010 1:50 am

Likely to see TD at 5 AM EDT/9Z update with best track downgrade for 06Z. And to borrow a phrase from the recent NHC Colin discussions, 30 kt may be generous:

AL, 04, 2010080806, , BEST, 0, 303N, 657W, 30, 1013, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 110, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, COLIN, S,
AL, 04, 2010080800, , BEST, 0, 295N, 656W, 35, 1012, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 0, 1015, 130, 80, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, COLIN, M, 12, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 0
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#1610 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 08, 2010 2:23 am

Colin looks bad, despite relatively low shear, whichever sat enhancement scheme you pick. Map made from UW-CIMSS TcTrak showing sat, obs, shear, model tracks:

Image
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#1611 Postby Cookie » Sun Aug 08, 2010 6:12 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

rough night for Colin


he's a bit hung over this morning
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1612 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 08, 2010 7:45 am

12z Best Track

AL, 04, 2010080812, , BEST, 0, 314N, 655W, 30, 1013, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest


Will be downgraded to TD at 11 AM.
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#1613 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 08, 2010 9:05 am

Image

latest ... pathetic
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression COLIN - Discussion

#1614 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 08, 2010 11:20 am

sandwiched between shear zones from opposite directions will do that to a TS...its dead Jim...
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#1615 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 08, 2010 1:49 pm

Looks like NHC getting close to pulling the plug with continued weakening on 18Z best track update from ATCF:

AL, 04, 2010080818, , BEST, 0, 324N, 657W, 25, 1015, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 75, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, COLIN, S,
AL, 04, 2010080812, , BEST, 0, 314N, 657W, 30, 1013, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 125, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, COLIN, S,
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#1616 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Aug 08, 2010 1:49 pm

Bye bye Colin, you will be remembered as the little TS that got squashed.
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Re:

#1617 Postby HurricaneJoe22 » Sun Aug 08, 2010 2:23 pm

brunota2003 wrote:the little TS that got squashed.


yeah, that narrows it down
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#1618 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 08, 2010 5:09 pm

Colin is pretty much done, convection developing way to the south but I'd end Colin next advisory if it hasn't already gone!
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Re:

#1619 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 08, 2010 5:17 pm

KWT wrote:Colin is pretty much done, convection developing way to the south but I'd end Colin next advisory if it hasn't already gone!


The 5 PM was the last one. :P
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#1620 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 08, 2010 5:24 pm

Ah fair enough then, I'm too busy watching our two invests we have at the moment to relaly notice Colin!
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