ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[supercane]

Colin can't catch a break; with apparently ESE shear affecting system with low values on CIMSS map likely an underestimate. UW-CIMSS made map with sat, track, obs, shear, and models converging on Bermuda.

[supercane]

Colin pretty weak. Decoded recon Vortex Data Message (VDM) from Tropical Atlantic Recon Decoder:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 07:04Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2010
Storm Name: Colin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 5:59:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°45'N 66°35'W (28.75N 66.5833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 268 miles (431 km) to the SSW (203°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,510m (4,954ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the SSE (148°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 167° at 31kts (From the SSE at ~ 35.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the ESE (113°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) in the southeast quadrant at 5:33:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 6:17:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the ESE (109°) from the flight level center

[supercane]

Originally stated this in recon discussion thread but will repeat here:


Confusing passes through the system with multiple vortices indicated wind shifts shows situation described in 5PM EDT/21Z advisory likely still holds:

THE WELL-DEFINED LOW
CLOUD SWIRL SEEN EARLIER HAS BECOME PART OF A LARGER ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CENTER.

[KWT]

Oh there certainly is a messy situation going on with the circulation of Colin, the repeated bursting and weakening of the convection is really playing havoc with the circulation.

Still not that far off from Bermuda, will probably pass west of Bermuda meaning they will have a very wet night.

[Gustywind]

Colin stalls, still headed for Bermuda
Matt Crowther, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 7, 2010 4:57 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

At 5 AM EDT Saturday Tropical Storm Colin was located 245 miles SSW of Bermuda and maximum sustained winds have stayed at 50 MPH. Some further increase in intensity is expected, but Colin should remain below hurricane strength. The storm has slowed to a crawl overnight, but is expected to regain a northward motion later today.

The forecast track takes Colin close to Bermuda by very early Sunday morning. Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for Bermuda, meaning tropical storm-force winds are expected on the island within 24 hours. Colin will remain well east of the U.S. coast, with no impacts. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are possible with the storm in Bermuda, which could actually ease dry conditions there.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 04, 2010080712, , BEST, 0, 292N, 665W, 35, 1008, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest


Barely a tropical storm,down to 35kts.

[cycloneye]

Here is a web cam from Bermuda. Nothing happening this morning,but the weather will deteriorate later this afternoon or tonight.

http://www.weather.bm/webcam.html

Bermuda Weather Service site

http://www.weather.bm/imagery.asp

[Cyclone1]

Geez, has Colin moved in 2 days?

[tailgater]

Colin has weaken and may be down graded form what I see on the visible loop. now it might redevlop father east but it looks in bad shape right now.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... p=0&llval=

[Gustywind]

Colin weakening and stationary
M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 7, 2010 12:04 pm ET
At 11 AM EDT Saturday, Tropical Storm Colin was located 245 miles SSW of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds have lowered to 40 mph. Colin is not forecast to become a hurricane due to inhibiting drier air north and west of the system and its eventual interaction with an approaching cold front. The storm is forecast to speed up and move northward later today.

The forecast track takes Colin close to Bermuda by early Sunday morning. Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for Bermuda, meaning tropical storm-force winds are expected on the island within 24 hours. Colin will remain well east of the U.S. coast, with no impacts. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible with the storm in Bermuda, which could actually ease dry conditions there.

[KWT]

Colin is getting quite badly sheared again, and the circulation is getting rather elongated...not going to last much longer as a TS....

[hurricaneCW]

Colin never got that break. Another ongoing convective cycle has begun, but I doubt it'll make any difference although based on visible, it does appear that the shear has slackened somewhat. Probably not enough to make a difference though.

[KWT]

It did just enough to get itself going again, the fact it redeveloped at all giving the conditions aloft is pretty decent and another bonus.

[tolakram]

Colin is getting his 5 minutes of low shear.

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[KWT]

Ah just when you think Colin is on the way out a convective burst comes along and maybe help it out somewhat!

Lets see how long it lasts this time round!

[supercane]

18Z best track from ATCF:

AL, 04, 2010080718, , BEST, 0, 291N, 658W, 35, 1012, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 0, 1015, 130, 80, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, COLIN, M, 12, NEQ, 90, 120, 0, 30
AL, 04, 2010080712, , BEST, 0, 291N, 662W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 110, 0, 0, 1012, 130, 80, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, COLIN, M, 12, NEQ, 90, 120, 0, 60

[HURAKAN]

latest

[KWT]

A so the NHC hold it at 35ks, looks like that convection has arrived just in time to prevent it from being downgraded.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 04, 2010080800, , BEST, 0, 295N, 656W, 35, 1012, TS

Still a tropical Storm at 35kts.

[supercane]

Steady T numbers from SSD. Also still quasi-stationary:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
07/2345 UTC 29.3N 65.4W T2.0/2.0 COLIN
07/1745 UTC 29.1N 65.6W T2.0/2.5 COLIN