ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps has Colin approaching the South Carolina coast

[TwisterFanatic]

That is well west of the 12z run.

[Wx_Warrior]

cmc out to sea

[KWT]

Most models now out to sea, interesting the GFS strengthens this back up briefly as it start to get lifted out and perhaps starts to get extra-tropical help, wouldn't surprise me if such a thing occured with this one.

[HURAKAN]

099
WHXX01 KWBC 041233
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1233 UTC WED AUG 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE COLIN (AL042010) 20100804 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100804 1200 100805 0000 100805 1200 100806 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 59.5W 19.7N 62.9W 21.4N 65.9W 23.0N 68.2W
BAMD 17.8N 59.5W 19.2N 62.0W 20.6N 64.1W 22.1N 65.8W
BAMM 17.8N 59.5W 19.4N 62.3W 20.9N 64.8W 22.5N 66.5W
LBAR 17.8N 59.5W 19.5N 62.7W 21.2N 65.6W 22.8N 67.9W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100806 1200 100807 1200 100808 1200 100809 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.1N 69.5W 26.2N 70.2W 28.2N 69.1W 30.5N 69.2W
BAMD 23.5N 67.0W 26.6N 68.2W 29.9N 68.9W 33.0N 69.7W
BAMM 23.7N 67.6W 26.4N 68.6W 29.2N 68.1W 31.9N 68.5W
LBAR 24.5N 69.4W 27.9N 69.6W 31.4N 68.0W 35.1N 66.9W
SHIP 48KTS 57KTS 66KTS 75KTS
DSHP 48KTS 57KTS 66KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 59.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 24KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 54.7W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 23KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 49.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

SHIPS still totally ignoring the fact there is a whopping great upper low present nearby...good agreement on a classic track.

[invest man]

Does the new model track seem to fast? Because the NHC had in its last advisory that, at least to me it was going to slow down somewhat. IM

[BensonTCwatcher]

I'm not biting on the NOGAPS solution at this point, or any other solution in that camp. The TUTT (even a weakened one) in that position through 48 hrs and position of the high, which will dominate the synoptics, would still favor a weakened tropical system and a re curving one at that. Still chances for a different outcome and watching closely, but we'll see what the next 36-48 hours holds.

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs 12z 102hours

[KWT]

Strong ole system on the 12z as it gets further north, wouldn't be all that surprising to see this one redevelop once it gets above 25N from the looks of things, though how strong it gets remains up for debate.

[hurricaneCW]

Strong ole system on the 12z as it gets further north, wouldn't be all that surprising to see this one redevelop once it gets above 25N from the looks of things, though how strong it gets remains up for debate.

Maybe a wave making, rip current producing hurricane. It looks terrible right now. I wouldn't be surprised if the shear completely blows it apart.

[Macrocane]

If the models continue to show redevelopment and strengthening it will be a very likely scenario IMO, so far the only model that has been reluctant is the Euro. I wouldn't be surprised if it peaks at a high latitude due to baroclinic interaction before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone.

[ronjon]

If the models continue to show redevelopment and strengthening it will be a very likely scenario IMO, so far the only model that has been reluctant is the Euro. I wouldn't be surprised if it peaks at a high latitude due to baroclinic interaction before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone.

I agree MC - water temps are plenty warm to support a hurricane even near 40N - its going to get a major shot of baroclinic energy from the NE US trough. Prime area for late July-early August development. I don't think I'm being that bold in predicting the second hurricane of the 2010 season from ex-Colin.

[hurricaneCW]

It's kind of strange how the gfs just buries Colin into the ridge. While a recurve is likely, I don't think it will be as sharp as the gfs forecasts.

[clfenwi]

12Z Nogaps has swung away from the Carolina's solution it had been selling. 120h:



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2010080412&set=Tropical

[clfenwi]

Canadian at 120h:



loop

[clfenwi]

18z tropical suite

Code: Select all

728
WHXX01 KWBC 041834
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC WED AUG 4 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE COLIN (AL042010) 20100804 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100804  1800   100805  0600   100805  1800   100806  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.4N  61.2W   20.9N  64.3W   22.4N  66.8W   23.5N  68.2W
BAMD    19.4N  61.2W   20.9N  63.2W   22.5N  64.7W   24.1N  65.6W
BAMM    19.4N  61.2W   20.8N  63.6W   22.2N  65.6W   23.4N  66.6W
LBAR    19.4N  61.2W   21.3N  63.8W   23.2N  66.0W   24.7N  67.5W
SHIP        35KTS          42KTS          50KTS          55KTS
DSHP        35KTS          42KTS          50KTS          55KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100806  1800   100807  1800   100808  1800   100809  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.4N  68.9W   25.8N  68.9W   27.4N  69.0W   29.4N  70.7W
BAMD    25.5N  65.9W   28.1N  65.5W   30.3N  65.8W   31.6N  66.8W
BAMM    24.6N  67.3W   26.5N  67.0W   28.2N  67.0W   29.8N  68.7W
LBAR    26.4N  68.2W   28.6N  67.7W   31.6N  66.9W   34.7N  66.8W
SHIP        58KTS          63KTS          74KTS          79KTS
DSHP        58KTS          63KTS          74KTS          79KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.4N LONCUR =  61.2W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =  23KT
LATM12 =  17.0N LONM12 =  57.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 =  24KT
LATM24 =  15.4N LONM24 =  52.4W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =   30NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN




[Macrocane]

The models are more bullish with each run all of them make Colin a strong tropical storm and even a hurricane it's har for me to believe that it is not going to happen with such a consensus.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 050043
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC THU AUG 5 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE COLIN (AL042010) 20100805 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100805  0000   100805  1200   100806  0000   100806  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.2N  62.8W   21.8N  65.7W   23.2N  67.7W   24.2N  69.1W
BAMD    20.2N  62.8W   21.5N  64.4W   22.9N  65.6W   24.2N  66.2W
BAMM    20.2N  62.8W   21.5N  65.0W   22.8N  66.5W   23.7N  67.6W
LBAR    20.2N  62.8W   22.1N  65.3W   23.9N  67.2W   25.3N  68.6W
SHIP        35KTS          39KTS          44KTS          47KTS
DSHP        35KTS          39KTS          44KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100807  0000   100808  0000   100809  0000   100810  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.9N  69.9W   26.2N  70.8W   27.5N  71.9W   28.7N  73.8W
BAMD    25.5N  66.5W   27.8N  66.9W   29.7N  68.3W   31.0N  69.7W
BAMM    24.7N  68.2W   26.3N  69.1W   27.8N  70.2W   29.1N  72.0W
LBAR    26.8N  69.0W   28.8N  68.6W   30.7N  68.5W   33.3N  69.0W
SHIP        48KTS          53KTS          59KTS          61KTS
DSHP        48KTS          53KTS          59KTS          61KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  20.2N LONCUR =  62.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =  21KT
LATM12 =  17.9N LONM12 =  59.5W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 =  23KT
LATM24 =  16.3N LONM24 =  54.7W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =   30NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$