WPAC: Ex DIANMU

[KWT]

Dianmu is indeed looking less impressive as it heads into far S.Korea and the center gets disrupted.

[wyq614]

Dianmu nearly killed one person in my hometown Qingdao, when a woman tourist was washed into the sea by high tides, she almost stopped breathing when a clipper came near and rescued her...

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1004 DIANMU (1004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 34.8N 128.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 37.0N 134.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 130000UTC 40.7N 143.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 140000UTC 48.0N 154.2E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =



WTKO20 RKSL 110000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME TS 1004 DIANMU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 110000UTC 34.9N 128.0E
MOVEMENT ENE 12KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 110600UTC 35.5N 129.7E WITHIN 20NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 43KT
12HR
POSITION 111200UTC 36.3N 132.0E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 995HPA 39KT
18HR
POSITION 111800UTC 37.2N 135.4E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 995HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 120000UTC 38.8N 139.9E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 33KT
48HR
POSITION 130000UTC 40.9N 146.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 1000HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.



WTPQ20 BABJ 110000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS DIANMU 1004 (1004) INITIAL TIME 110000 UTC
00HR 34.7N 127.8E 990HPA 23M/S
30KTS 180KM
P12HR ENE 30KM/H
P+24HR 37.6N 134.9E 1000HPA 17M/S=

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (DIANMU) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 35.2N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.2N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 37.1N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 38.7N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 40.5N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 44.0N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 35.7N 128.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DIANMU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM WEST OF
PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS AND MADE
LANDFALL OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z,
112100Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DIANMU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
WEST OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS AND
MADE LANDFALL OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION
SHOWS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, NOW ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST, HAS BECOME
FRAGMENTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH SOUTH KOREA'S SOUTHERN TERRAIN AND
EXPOSURE TO INCREASED WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE
STORM'S INTENSITY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATED DUE TO GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
RADAR IMAGERY FROM KYUSHU, JAPAN, AND FROM NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING 35-KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS
FROM CHINHAE. TS 05W HAS CRESTED THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. DIANMU IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN AFTER TAU 06
AND MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY DESPITE MODERATE VWS. THIS IS
DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IT WILL, HOWEVER, BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL (XT)
TRANSITION DURING THIS TIME, AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARDS NORTHERN
HONSHU, INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND BECOME FULLY XT BY TAU 48. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN LINE
WITH BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[supercane]

Dianmu nearly killed one person in my hometown Qingdao, when a woman tourist was washed into the sea by high tides, she almost stopped breathing when a clipper came near and rescued her...

Hope you and your family are okay. Shows how even a moderate TS can be dangerous. Why was the woman near enough to be swept by the tide in the first place?

[supercane]

Weakening as it gets caught up in westerlies:



T numbers hanging in there, but not much longer:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
11/0232 UTC 35.0N 129.0E T3.0/3.5 DIANMU
10/2032 UTC 33.8N 126.8E T3.0/3.5 DIANMU

5
5TXPN25 KNES 110301
SIMWIR

A. 05W (DIANMU)
B. 11/0232Z
C. 35.0N
D. 129.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.5/W0.5/12HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU
H. REMARKS...DT=3.0 BASED ON .6 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL.
PT=3.0. MET=3.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
10/2230Z 34.0N 127.0E AMSU


...SCHWARTZ

ASCAT over South Korea:

[supercane]

03Z updates:

JMA still at 50 kt:
WTPQ20 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1004 DIANMU (1004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 35.1N 129.1E FAIR
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120300UTC 37.9N 136.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 130000UTC 40.7N 143.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 140000UTC 48.0N 154.2E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

China (23 m/s=44.7kt)

WTPQ20 BABJ 110300
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS DIANMU 1004 (1004) INITIAL TIME 110300 UTC
00HR 35.0N 128.9E 990HPA 23M/S
30KTS 180KM
P12HR ENE 30KM/H
P+24HR 38.3N 136.2E 1000HPA 17M/S=

KMA:

WTKO20 RKSL 110300
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME TS 1004 DIANMU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 110300UTC 35.3N 128.8E
MOVEMENT ENE 16KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 110900UTC 35.8N 130.8E WITHIN 20NM
PRES/VMAX 993HPA 41KT
12HR
POSITION 111500UTC 36.6N 133.4E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 995HPA 39KT
18HR
POSITION 112100UTC 38.0N 137.2E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 995HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 120300UTC 39.7N 141.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 1000HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[wyq614]

Dianmu nearly killed one person in my hometown Qingdao, when a woman tourist was washed into the sea by high tides, she almost stopped breathing when a clipper came near and rescued her...

Hope you and your family are okay. Shows how even a moderate TS can be dangerous. Why was the woman near enough to be swept by the tide in the first place?

We're OK, Dianmu in Qingdao made no rain nor stormy winds, the main effect was the tide. And it was confirmed now that one man was killed in Qingdao after hit by the tide. Several people tried to rescue him but the sea was so rough that no one dared to approach. Two people jumped into the sea and tried to swim toward him but were unable to...

[supercane]

12Z updates:

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (DIANMU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 36.7N 131.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.7N 131.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 38.7N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 41.0N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 43.6N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 37.2N 133.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DIANMU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
500 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.
//
NNNN



JMA:

WTPQ20 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1004 DIANMU (1004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 36.4N 131.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 121200UTC 39.8N 139.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 131200UTC 44.5N 150.1E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =



KMA:

WTKO20 RKSL 111200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22
NAME TS 1004 DIANMU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 111200UTC 36.7N 132.9E
MOVEMENT ENE 25KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 43KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 111800UTC 37.7N 136.1E WITHIN 20NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 43KT
12HR
POSITION 120000UTC 39.4N 139.8E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 995HPA 39KT
18HR
POSITION 120600UTC 41.3N 143.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 998HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.



China (23 m/s = 44.7 kt):

WTPQ20 BABJ 111200 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS DIANMU 1004 (1004) INITIAL TIME 111200 UTC
00HR 36.4N 131.3E 990HPA 23M/S
30KTS 120KM
P12HR ENE 35KM/H
P+24HR 39.8N 140.8E 1002HPA 15M/S=

[supercane]

Midnight IR shows the system being caught up in the westerlies:



And being sheared as a result:



Still better than TD 5 in the Gulf.

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (DIANMU) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 38.2N 135.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 38.2N 135.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 40.2N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 42.2N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 38.7N 137.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (DIANMU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD DIANMU IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AXIS AND IS ENCOUNTERING THE MIDLATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL SUCCUMB TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT IT COMPLETES EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12
FEET.//
NNNN



WTPQ20 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1004 DIANMU (1004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 38.2N 136.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 110NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 43.3N 148.9E 130NM 70%
MOVE ENE 34KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 140000UTC 47.0N 158.0E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =



WTKO20 RKSL 120000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25
NAME TS 1004 DIANMU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 120000UTC 38.2N 136.0E
MOVEMENT ENE 20KT
PRES/VMAX 995HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 121200UTC 40.1N 141.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 999HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[KWT]

Looks like there is still convection flaring up so going to be fairly wet soon in N.Central Japan

[supercane]

JMA and China still holding on to Dianmu:

JMA:
WTPQ20 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1004 DIANMU (1004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 39.6N 142.7E FAIR
MOVE E 28KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 47.5N 158.7E 130NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =



China:

WTPQ20 BABJ 111200 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS DIANMU 1004 (1004) INITIAL TIME 111200 UTC
00HR 36.4N 131.3E 990HPA 23M/S
30KTS 120KM
P12HR ENE 35KM/H
P+24HR 39.8N 140.8E 1002HPA 15M/S=

Looks clearly extratropical:

[HURAKAN]

nice pic

[supercane]

Bloomburg reports 5 deaths in Korea due to Dianmu.

For completeness, last advisory on Dianmu issued earlier in the day:

By JMA:

WTPQ20 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 1004 DIANMU (1004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 41N 146E
MOVE ENE 30KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 500NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST =



Now JMA describes it as:
WWJP25 RJTD 130000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 998 HPA
AT 43N 151E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 35 KNOTS.
<snip>

and from KMA:

WTKO20 RKSL 120600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 26
NAME - 1004 DIANMU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 120600UTC 39.2N 138.8E
MOVEMENT ENE 24KT
PRES 998HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.