WPAC: Ex DIANMU

[supercane]

WTPN34 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (DIANMU) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 25.6N 125.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 125.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.7N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 29.6N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 31.4N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 33.7N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 36.9N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 39.0N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 125.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05w (DIANMU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//

[StormingB81]

Strongs winds I have seen all day. Had winds of 31 MPH with gusts at 47mph. It is definatly getting windy but nothing bad to cause any problems

[Typhoon Hunter]

Link to wind obs in the Okinawa area:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas/217.html?elementCode=1

Obs of 22m/s west of Okinawa and Naha looks like it's getting 16m/s at the moment. Given the strength of typhoons Okinawan locals are used to dealing with it doesn't surprise me they're not batting an eyelid over this one.

[StormingB81]

Its like a normal rain storm here. We have had the occasional wind gust but nothing to write home about.

They are saying the worse of it will be here about 3pm local (2am east coast)

[StormingB81]

I know this will be a post for a different board and maybe I am looking to much into it. But look it north of Guam.....Directly east of this storm. Is tha tsomething that can try to form into something in the comming days?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[StormingB81]

Looking at the latest sat view from weather.com looks like its weaking...anyone else think so? here is the link:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/b ... e/JAXX0067

[supercane]

WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DIANMU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 082216Z SSMIS 37H GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MAJORITY OF
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
OBSERVATIONS FROM MIYAKOJIMA ISLAND (MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 992 MB WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED) AND A RADAR LOOP
FROM JAPAN REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM PASSED SLIGHTY EAST OF THE ISLAND
BETWEEN 081800Z AND 082200Z. THESE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS MICROWAVE
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM THE ASYMETRIC WIND
DISTRIBUTION OF TS 05W. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER,
STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF TS 05W
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, BUT GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFLUENT REGION SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
PHILOSOPHY. HOWEVER, IN THIS FORECAST THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE FACT THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS INHIBITING OUTFLOW AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM.
B. TS 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE
EAST OF JAPAN AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48.
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.
C. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 TS 05W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO
RECURVE AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTH KOREA. INTERACTION WITH LAND
AND AN APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96 TS DIANMU IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. ECMWF HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS NOW ALIGNED WITH THE
TIGHTLY PACKED AIDS ENVELOPE. GFDN REMAINS AN OUTLIER AS IT
ERRONEOUSLY DRIVES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.//

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looking at the latest sat view from weather.com looks like its weaking...anyone else think so? here is the link:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/b ... e/JAXX0067

JMA certainly don't agree with you, they've just upgraded it to an STS with 50kt winds.

WTPQ20 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1004 DIANMU (1004) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 26.4N 125.6E FAIR
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST

[Infdidoll]

Looks like the northwest portion is finally starting to gain some convection on radar. I could see this strengthening further before it hits SK. The winds seem a little stronger...It will probably be a nice, noisy night here as it passes. We haven't gotten much in the way of rain as there hasn't been a lot of strong, deep convection. From the looks of radar, that will come as we experience the back half of the storm.

[supercane]

Still looks pretty robust on ASCAT, too.

[phwxenthusiast]

anyone having problems accessing JTWC's site??

[Chacor]

Considering JMA didn't forecast anything close to 50 kt in its first forecast, pretty surprised that i's already up to an STS.

Also, can I just say that the "discussion" bit oin the topic title is not needed. For non-ATL stporms, everything including advisories and models go into a single thead so the identifier is unnecessary.

[Macrocane]

anyone having problems accessing JTWC's site??

I have problems too, is there any other site with the JTWC info?

[phwxenthusiast]

anyone having problems accessing JTWC's site??

I have problems too, is there any other site with the JTWC info?

typhoon2000.com has a link to their warning, prognostic reasoning, as well as the track...

[supercane]

Peak wind gusts at Naha (ROAH) were 49kt at 0147Z, and at Kadena AFB (RODN) 42kt at 0314Z, see below. Now calmer winds as system passing to west. Current Okinawa area conditions

Conditions at: ROAH observed 09 August 2010 01:47 UTC
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.56 inches Hg (1001.0 mb)
Winds: from the S (180 degrees) at 41 MPH (36 knots; 18.7 m/s)
gusting to 56 MPH (49 knots; 25.5 m/s)
Visibility: 3 miles (5 km)
Ceiling: 2500 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1500 feet AGL
broken clouds at 2500 feet AGL
scattered clouds at 3000 feet AGL
Present Weather: +SHRA (heavy rain showers)
ROAH 090147Z 18036G49KT 5000 R18/0550VP1800D +SHRA SCT015 BKN025 SCT030CB 25/24 Q1001 RMK 3CU015 6CU025 4CB030 A2958 CB N-OHD-S MOV N

Conditions at: RODN observed 09 August 2010 03:14 UTC
Temperature: 27.0°C (81°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.61 inches Hg (1002.8 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1002.7 mb]
Winds: from the S (190 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 knots; 10.4 m/s)
gusting to 48 MPH (42 knots; 21.8 m/s)
Visibility: 4 miles (6 km)
Ceiling: 1700 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 700 feet AGL
broken clouds at 1700 feet AGL
broken clouds at 2300 feet AGL
broken clouds at 4500 feet AGL
Present Weather: -RA BR (light rain, mist)
RODN 090314Z 19020G42KT 6000 -RA BR FEW007 BKN017 BKN023 BKN045 27/25 A2961 RMK AO2A PK WND 18042/0310 RAB0301 SLP027

[supercane]

Latest vis not too shabby.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1004 DIANMU (1004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 27.1N 125.6E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 32.2N 125.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 110600UTC 34.6N 127.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 120600UTC 38.7N 134.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

And from China (28 m/s = 54.4276458 kt):

WTPQ20 BABJ 090600 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS DIANMU 1004 (1004) INITIAL TIME 090600 UTC
00HR 27.1N 125.6E 982HPA 28M/S
30KTS 200KM
50KTS 50KM
P12HR N 25KM/H

[supercane]

And from South Korea:
WTKO20 RKSL 090000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3
NAME TS 1004 DIANMU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 090000UTC 25.7N 125.6E
MOVEMENT NNE 15KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 100000UTC 30.3N 125.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 110000UTC 33.8N 126.0E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 120000UTC 37.4N 130.4E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 995HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[StormingB81]

its pretty rainy and gusty outside right now..but nothing to big..Winds are only 28 mph with a 39 mph gust