ATL: COLIN - Advisories

[supercane]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010

...CENTER OF COLIN MEANDERING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 66.9W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST. COLIN HAS
BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST WEST OF
BERMUDA SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER ONLY A SLIGHT
DEVIATION TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
OVER THE ISLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOME
STRENGTHENING FORECAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.

RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN

[supercane]

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 66.9W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 66.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 67.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.3N 66.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 30.2N 66.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.2N 65.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 34.5N 64.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 90SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 45.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 53.0N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 66.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


NNNN

[supercane]

000
FONT14 KNHC 061448
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2010

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 1 2 1 3 4 9
TROP DEPRESSION 12 13 11 10 8 14 20
TROPICAL STORM 85 76 69 57 50 53 51
HURRICANE 2 9 18 31 40 29 20
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 8 15 24 28 22 16
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 5 8 5 2
HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 2 3 2 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 55KT 50KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 7(29)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 2(24)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)

BERMUDA 34 1 12(13) 41(54) 14(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70)
BERMUDA 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 10(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 062032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM AST FRI AUG 06 2010

...COLIN LOSES SOME ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 66.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
OVER BERMUDA LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT COLIN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
LESS ORGANIZED...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.

RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT44 KNHC 062033
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM AST FRI AUG 06 2010

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES WITH COLIN AND THE NEAR-STORM
ENVIRONMENT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. FIRST...THE WELL-DEFINED LOW
CLOUD SWIRL SEEN EARLIER HAS BECOME PART OF A LARGER ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CENTER.
SECOND...CIRRUS CLOUDS APPROACHING THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ARE MOVING AT 40 KT...SUGGESTING THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
INCREASED. THIRD...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED SHEAR...THE
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED NEAR THE CENTER. DESPITE THESE NEGATIVE
FACTORS...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND
43-KT WINDS AT 500 FT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH ESTIMATED
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR OF 39 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 40 KT.

AFTER THE TRACK EXCURSION NOTED EARLIER...THE MEAN CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION HAS RESUMED A NORTHWARD MOTION OF 010/8. THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. COLIN IS MOVING
NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NEAR 28N74W AS A DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED AS IT REACHES THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HR AS THE
40-KT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THAT...WHICH IF
CORRECT WOULD ALLOW COLIN TO STRENGTH. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 60-72 HR...
WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50-55
KT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT IN 72 HR IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY 72 HR
AND BE COMPLETE BY 96 HR...WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECASTING
COLIN TO REMAIN A STRONG CYCLONE THROUGH THAT PROCESS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 28.3N 66.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 29.5N 66.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 31.1N 65.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 32.8N 64.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 35.1N 64.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 41.0N 59.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 47.5N 48.5W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 11/1800Z 56.0N 40.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

480
WTNT34 KNHC 062330
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
800 PM AST FRI AUG 06 2010

...COLIN CONTINUES NORTHWARD WITH MOST OF THE WEATHER EAST OF THE
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 66.6W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT COLIN REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.

RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[supercane]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 070239
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 06 2010

...DISORGANIZED COLIN ADVANCING TOWARD BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 66.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR....AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER
BERMUDA SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.

RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[supercane]

000
WTNT24 KNHC 070239
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
0300 UTC SAT AUG 07 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 66.5W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 66.5W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 66.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 30.3N 66.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.0N 65.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.7N 64.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 49.5N 46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 66.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[supercane]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 070240
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 06 2010


COLIN IS A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. THIS COULD GIVE AN IMPRESSION
OF A STRONGER CYCLONE BUT FLUCTUATIONS IN CONVECTION ARE TYPICAL IN
SHEARED SYSTEMS. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE
CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY SEPARATE THE CENTER FROM THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AGAIN SOON. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
40 KNOTS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK COLIN IN SEVERAL
HOURS. COLIN HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO GATHER SOME
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE SHEAR RELAXES A BIT AS
DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. IN FACT...IF THE CURRENT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION CONTINUES OR PERSIST IT COULD MEAN THAT THE SHEAR IS
ALREADY RELAXING AND SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS ABOUT TO BEGIN. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX A BIT AND CALLS
FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY. BY 96 HOURS...COLIN SHOULD BE
EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER CYCLONE. THE
INTENSIFICATION SHOWN IN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS OCCURS LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE REALISTIC BECAUSE
BY THEN...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHING COOLER WATERS AND
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

THE CENTER IS CLEARLY OBSERVED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
AND ONE CAN OBTAIN A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION...WHICH IS
TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. COLIN IS ALREADY ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS NEARING THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS PACKED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE ENVELOPE. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS IN THE FORWARD SPEED SHOWN BY
VARIOUS MODELS...BUT THIS MOSTLY OCCUR AT THE LONG RANGE AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 29.1N 66.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 30.3N 66.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 32.0N 65.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 33.7N 64.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 36.5N 63.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 42.0N 57.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 49.5N 46.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

773
WTNT34 KNHC 070545
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
200 AM AST SAT AUG 07 2010

...COLIN MOVING LITTLE...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING TO
INVESTIGATE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 66.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST. COLIN HAS
MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT A MOTION TOWARD
TOWARD THE NORTH AT AROUND 9 MPH...15 KM/HR....IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.

RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 071130
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
800 AM AST SAT AUG 07 2010

...COLIN BARELY MOVING...REMAINS DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 66.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST. COLIN HAS
SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 4 MPH...6
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY NEAR OR OVER
BERMUDA LATE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.

RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 071440
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 07 2010

...COLIN HESITATES BUT EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWARD MOTION LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 66.4W
ABOUT 245 MI...400 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST. COLIN HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY. BECAUSE COLIN HAS BEEN
STATIONARY ITS ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL TO BERMUDA HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.

RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT44 KNHC 071440
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 07 2010


VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES
TO BE DISORGANIZED AND CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME SHAPELESS CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO
RAINBANDS ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR OBSERVED YESTERDAY HAS RELAXED A LITTLE BIT AND THE
CYCLONE IS LOCATED UNDER A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN
TWO LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOWS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT
STRENGTHENING IS ABOUT TO OCCUR...THE OBSERVED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
COULD ALLOW A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. BOTH THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS INSIST ON SOME STRENGTHENING BUT IT OCCURS BY
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WHEN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
SHOULD BEGIN. COLIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS
AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

UNEXPECTEDLY...COLIN HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
IT BECAME EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE FORECAST THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION AND IN FACT...MOST OF THE
MODELS INSIST ON RECURVATURE SOON AND A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST APPEARS TO BE REALISTIC AS A
LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BRINGING A
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE STORM. THIS IS THE
SCENARIO FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 29.0N 66.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 30.7N 66.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 33.0N 65.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 35.5N 64.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 39.0N 60.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 46.5N 50.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 11/1200Z 55.0N 41.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 12/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

ZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
200 PM AST SAT AUG 07 2010

...COLIN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...MEANDERING SOUTH OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. COLIN HAS
BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY. BECAUSE COLIN HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY ITS ANTICIPATED EFFECTS IN BERMUDA HAVE BEEN
DELAYED UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY
BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE HAS RISEN TO 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.

RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM AST SAT AUG 07 2010


...COLIN EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 65.7W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. COLIN HAS
BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
LATER TODAY. BECAUSE COLIN HAS BEEN MEANDERING ITS ANTICIPATED
EFFECTS IN BERMUDA HAVE BEEN DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.

RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

072032
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM AST SAT AUG 07 2010

IT HAS BEEN INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER AND THE DEEP CONVECTION TODAY. DURING THE MORNING THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND AS NEW CONVECTION
FORMED...THE CENTER SHIFTED EASTWARD AND BECAME TUCKED INTO THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EVEN THE OUTFLOW BEGAN TO EXPAND...GIVING THE
IMPRESSION THAT THERE WAS A DEVELOPING TREND. HOWEVER...DATA
FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN AND THE WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED. IN FACT...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT GENEROUSLY AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON ONE
SFMR OBSERVATION OF 34 KNOTS. SHIPS MODEL AS WELL AS THE GFDL/HWRF
PAIR SUGGEST THAT COLIN WILL AT LEAST KEEP ITS TROPICAL STORM
STATUS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW SHEAR FOR A DAY OR SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ALSO KEEPS COLIN AS A TROPICAL STORM A LITTLE LONGER.
HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AFTER 48
HOURS...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND ABSORBED BY A
LARGER MID-LATITUDE LOW. IN FACT...MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT EVEN
TRACK COLIN BEYOND 3 DAYS.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING ALL MORNING BUT LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES
AND DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT COLIN IS
BEGINNING A SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IT SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE
TO THE NORTHEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
CONSISTENTLY TAKES COLIN NORTHWARD AND INDEED ALL MODELS BRING THE
CENTER JUST WEST OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH COLIN WILL BE AFFECTING BERMUDA SINCE THEY ARE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 29.4N 65.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 30.3N 65.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 32.2N 65.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 35.0N 65.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 38.5N 62.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 45.0N 50.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 072352
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
800 PM AST SAT AUG 07 2010

...POORLY ORGANIZED COLIN DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 65.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...5 KM/HR...AND A
FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN COULD PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.

RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 080233
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 07 2010

THE CENTER OF COLIN IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING...EVEN
WITH THE HELP OF A TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
THAT IT IS NORTH OF THE CURRENTLY SHRINKING AREA OF CONVECTION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM
SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A 35 KT TROPICAL
STORM...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. COLIN IS STRUGGLING TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF IN A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...
AND ONE POSSIBLE REASON IS A TONGUE OF LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR
SEEN INTRUDING INTO THE CIRCULATION IN AN AMSR-E OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 015/3. IN THE SHORT
TERM...COLIN APPEARS TO BE TRAPPED BETWEEN LOW-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE
EAST AND WEST...AND THIS COULD BE A REASON FOR THE CURRENT SLOW
MOTION. IN THE LONGER TERM...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD STEER THE STORM NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SLOWER
THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST COLIN TO TAKE 24 OR MORE HOURS
BEFORE PASSING BERMUDA.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES THAT COLIN SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING
THE NEXT 36 HR. GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY TREND AND LACK OF
ORGANIZATION...IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY STRENGTHENING WILL BE SLOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH COLIN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING TO 45 KT IN 48
HR. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT COLIN DOES NOT STRENGTHEN AND
REMAINS AT BEST A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT INTENSITY...COLIN SHOULD BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT AROUND 48 HR AND COMPLETE IT BY 72 HR.
THE CYCLONE IS THEN LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
LOW BY 96 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 29.7N 65.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 30.7N 65.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 32.4N 65.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 34.7N 64.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 38.1N 62.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 47.5N 51.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

164
WTNT34 KNHC 080531
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
200 AM AST SUN AUG 08 2010

...COLIN MOVING SLOWLY...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 65.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.

RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

For the record.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 080841
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 AM AST SUN AUG 08 2010

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF COLIN REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION...AS SHEAR AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER AND WEST OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN AGREEMENT
WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM TAFB. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND
COLIN DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MORE THAN MODEST STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING UNTIL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IN THE MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED
IMAGERY...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE FASTER
NOW...TOWARD 005 DEGREES AT 5 KT. COLIN FINALLY APPEARS TO BE
RESPONDING TO THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST...AND MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE GENERAL SCENARIO OF AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE FORWARD SPEED OF
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS CYCLE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT TRENDS
SLOWER AFTER 12 HOURS. COLIN SHOULD UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY 72 HOURS BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CENTER OF COLIN COULD BECOME ELONGATED AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS
IT DECOUPLES FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE UKMET
MODEL. IF THIS OCCURS...COLIN COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN
INDICATED HERE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 30.7N 65.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 31.7N 65.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 33.4N 65.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 36.0N 64.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 38.9N 61.9W 45 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 46.0N 52.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
800 AM AST SUN AUG 08 2010

...COLIN MOVING CLOSER TO BERMUDA...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 65.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6
WEST. COLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. A FURTHER INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF COLIN WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA TODAY.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND LARGE WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG SOUTH-FACING
BEACHES.

RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 081443
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 08 2010

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
BERMUDA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF COLIN IS
BECOMING ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH AND THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS LITTLE...IF ANY...ORGANIZATION. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM SAB
AND TAFB HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED ON
THE ABOVE...COLIN IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME.

ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS STRENGTHENING...THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY AS SHEAR AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO TAKE A TOLL ON
COLIN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS COLIN AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION UNTIL DISSIPATION. IF THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO
ELONGATE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COLIN WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS.

COLIN IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES
AT 10 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING COLIN
OR ITS REMNANTS NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 32.0N 65.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 33.3N 65.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 35.3N 64.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 37.9N 63.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 41.2N 58.8W 30 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[supercane]

Tropical Depression COLIN Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081735
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
200 PM AST SUN AUG 08 2010

...COLIN LOSING ORGANIZATION...COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 65.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1015 MB...29.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF COLIN
CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DEFINED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...COLIN
COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
65.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12
MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...COLIN WILL MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. HOWEVER...COLIN COULD DEGENERATE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1015 MB...29.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER BERMUDA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN