WTNT24 KNHC 022038
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 42.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 42.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 41.8W
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.8N 45.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.2N 49.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.8N 54.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.5N 57.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 26.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 29.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 42.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT44 KNHC 022037
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND
IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BASED ON THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF SHARPLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE USED FOR
THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE
EAST...BUT HAS BEEN IMPROVING AND BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL IN THE
REMAINING QUADRANTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/14. DESPITE THEIR POOR
INITIALIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION AT 12Z...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXCEEDING
20 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS TAKING A
VERY WEAK CYCLONE QUICKLY NORTHWARD THROUGH A LARGE BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHEREAS THE HWRF...GFS...AND NOGAPS MODELS
FAVOR A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
LIE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA OVER
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL HAVE MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH WHICH ERODES THE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS HAVE LESS AMPLITUDE AND MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
U.S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES. GIVEN THE CURRENT 5-WAVE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...MY FEELING IS THAT SUCH SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WOULD BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO
THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN AND TVCC...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN 36
HOURS WHEN ALL OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SMALL ANTICYCLONE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE. BY 48-60 HOURS...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN
30 KT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN WEAKENING OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THESE HIGH SHEAR VALUES MAY BE AN ARTIFACT OF
THE THE GFS HAVING MUCH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AS COMPARED TO
THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...AND ALSO DUE TO 500 KM RADIUS THAT THE
SHIPS USES IN COMPUTING SHEAR VALUES. IF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RATHER THAN OUTRUNNING IT
...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL END UP STRONGER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.0N 42.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 13.8N 45.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 15.2N 49.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 54.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 18.5N 57.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 64.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 26.0N 67.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 69.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
ATL: COLIN - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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ATL: COLIN - Advisories
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - ADVISORIES
WTNT24 KNHC 030246
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
0300 UTC TUE AUG 03 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 45.1W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 45.1W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 44.1W
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.6N 48.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.0N 52.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.7N 56.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.6N 59.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 31.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 45.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
654
WTNT34 KNHC 030248
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NO CHANGE
IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 45.1W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH...37
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - ADVISORIES
978
WTNT44 KNHC 030252
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION
THIS EVENING. VERY LITTLE BANDING FEATURES ARE SEEN AND THE
CENTER IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...BASED ON
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB. NOAA BUOY 41041
HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 25 KT ABOUT
70 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS EVENING WERE HELPFUL IN LOCATING
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED DURING
THE PAST 6-12 HOURS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/20. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. DURING
THIS TIME THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IN THE LONGER RANGE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD MUCH EARLIER...WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND LIES ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ALTHOUGH THE TVCN CONSENSUS
SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY EASTWARD THIS CYCLE...WE PREFER TO KEEP THE
TRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEAK AT THAT TIME.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING. IN 36-48 HOURS...
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO HALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE NEW FORECAST
IS A LITTLE BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LGEM AND GFDL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0300Z 13.6N 45.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 14.6N 48.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 16.0N 52.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 17.7N 56.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 19.6N 59.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 23.5N 65.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 07/0000Z 27.0N 68.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 31.0N 69.5W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT44 KNHC 030252
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION
THIS EVENING. VERY LITTLE BANDING FEATURES ARE SEEN AND THE
CENTER IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...BASED ON
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB. NOAA BUOY 41041
HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 25 KT ABOUT
70 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS EVENING WERE HELPFUL IN LOCATING
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED DURING
THE PAST 6-12 HOURS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/20. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. DURING
THIS TIME THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IN THE LONGER RANGE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD MUCH EARLIER...WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND LIES ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ALTHOUGH THE TVCN CONSENSUS
SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY EASTWARD THIS CYCLE...WE PREFER TO KEEP THE
TRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEAK AT THAT TIME.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING. IN 36-48 HOURS...
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO HALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE NEW FORECAST
IS A LITTLE BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LGEM AND GFDL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0300Z 13.6N 45.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 14.6N 48.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 16.0N 52.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 17.7N 56.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 19.6N 59.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 23.5N 65.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 07/0000Z 27.0N 68.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 31.0N 69.5W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - ADVISORIES
WTNT34 KNHC 030831
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010
...DEPRESSION FOUR BECOMES THE THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2010
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 47.2W
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF COLIN.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN WILL PASS WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT24 KNHC 030831
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2010
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF COLIN.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 47.2W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 47.2W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 46.2W
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.1N 50.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.8N 54.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.6N 58.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.6N 61.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 31.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 47.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CURVED
BAND WRAPPING HALFWAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
SUPPORTING A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. COLIN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...WITH MODERATE TO
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
A LEVELING OFF OF INTENSITY THEREAFTER. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST GFDL MODEL FORECAST AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC FORECAST. NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL OR STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS COLIN TO HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT
5 DAYS.
CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT
285/20. AT THIS TIME...THE STEERING FOR COLIN IS BEING PROVIDED DUE
TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC
EASTERLY JET. THIS RELATIVELY FAST STEERING CURRENT SHOULD MORE OR
LESS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT
ALONG WITH A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT
FORECAST TIME...THE MODELS BECOME MODERATELY DIVERGENT WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDL
AND HWRF ON THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE...FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 41041 OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC INDICATE THAT COLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...AND THE
WIND RADII SHOWN IN THE ADVISORY MIGHT BE GENEROUS.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS
OF COLIN. AT THIS TIME...BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...WIND
FIELD...AND REASONABLE UNCERTAINTIES...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 14.0N 47.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 15.1N 50.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 54.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 18.6N 58.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 20.6N 61.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 24.5N 66.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 28.0N 68.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 31.0N 69.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010
...DEPRESSION FOUR BECOMES THE THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2010
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 47.2W
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF COLIN.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN WILL PASS WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT24 KNHC 030831
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2010
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF COLIN.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 47.2W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 47.2W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 46.2W
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.1N 50.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.8N 54.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.6N 58.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.6N 61.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 31.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 47.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CURVED
BAND WRAPPING HALFWAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
SUPPORTING A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. COLIN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...WITH MODERATE TO
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
A LEVELING OFF OF INTENSITY THEREAFTER. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST GFDL MODEL FORECAST AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC FORECAST. NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL OR STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS COLIN TO HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT
5 DAYS.
CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT
285/20. AT THIS TIME...THE STEERING FOR COLIN IS BEING PROVIDED DUE
TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC
EASTERLY JET. THIS RELATIVELY FAST STEERING CURRENT SHOULD MORE OR
LESS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT
ALONG WITH A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT
FORECAST TIME...THE MODELS BECOME MODERATELY DIVERGENT WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDL
AND HWRF ON THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE...FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 41041 OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC INDICATE THAT COLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...AND THE
WIND RADII SHOWN IN THE ADVISORY MIGHT BE GENEROUS.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS
OF COLIN. AT THIS TIME...BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...WIND
FIELD...AND REASONABLE UNCERTAINTIES...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 14.0N 47.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 15.1N 50.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 54.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 18.6N 58.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 20.6N 61.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 24.5N 66.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 28.0N 68.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 31.0N 69.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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WTNT44 KNHC 031438
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010
COLIN HAS A VERY RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING SEEN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED...LEAVING A SMALL CONVECTIVE MASS
NEAR THE CENTER AND A SECOND CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE NORTH.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM
SAB...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IT IS HARD TO FIND WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW
CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...AND THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER COLIN STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION.
THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION
MAY BE EVEN FASTER. COLIN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW/
MID-LEVEL BERMUDA HIGH...AND IN 48-72 HR SHOULD BE APPROACHING A
WEAKNESS OR BREAK IN THE HIGH CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD INITIALLY STEER COLIN RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AFTER 48 HR. THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACKS
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST AN
EAST OF NORTH MOTION ON THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BY
120 HR...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFDN ARE ON THE LEFT EDGE WITH NO
NORTHWARD TURN BEFORE 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED
60-90 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND LIES TO THE
LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
CURRENTLY...COLIN IS EXPERIENCING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR LIKELY
CAUSED BY THE LOWER PART OF THE STORM OUTRUNNING THE UPPER PART.
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR DUE TO THE RAPID
MOTION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CAUSED BY THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND THE ONLY INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT
CURRENTLY CALLS FOR COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE IS CLIMATOLOGY/
PERSISTENCE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT COLIN COULD DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN WAVE
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ITS RAPID MOTION AND WESTERLY SHEAR.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF COLIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 14.2N 49.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 15.0N 52.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 16.5N 56.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 18.3N 60.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 20.2N 63.7W 45 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 67.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 26.5N 69.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 29.0N 70.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT44 KNHC 031438
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010
COLIN HAS A VERY RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING SEEN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED...LEAVING A SMALL CONVECTIVE MASS
NEAR THE CENTER AND A SECOND CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE NORTH.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM
SAB...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IT IS HARD TO FIND WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW
CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...AND THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER COLIN STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION.
THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION
MAY BE EVEN FASTER. COLIN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW/
MID-LEVEL BERMUDA HIGH...AND IN 48-72 HR SHOULD BE APPROACHING A
WEAKNESS OR BREAK IN THE HIGH CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD INITIALLY STEER COLIN RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AFTER 48 HR. THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACKS
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST AN
EAST OF NORTH MOTION ON THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BY
120 HR...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFDN ARE ON THE LEFT EDGE WITH NO
NORTHWARD TURN BEFORE 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED
60-90 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND LIES TO THE
LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
CURRENTLY...COLIN IS EXPERIENCING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR LIKELY
CAUSED BY THE LOWER PART OF THE STORM OUTRUNNING THE UPPER PART.
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR DUE TO THE RAPID
MOTION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CAUSED BY THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND THE ONLY INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT
CURRENTLY CALLS FOR COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE IS CLIMATOLOGY/
PERSISTENCE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT COLIN COULD DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN WAVE
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ITS RAPID MOTION AND WESTERLY SHEAR.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF COLIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 14.2N 49.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 15.0N 52.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 16.5N 56.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 18.3N 60.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 20.2N 63.7W 45 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 67.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 26.5N 69.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 29.0N 70.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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WTNT24 KNHC 032042
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2010
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF COLIN.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 53.8W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 30 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 53.8W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 52.4W
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.8N 57.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.4N 60.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 63.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.7N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 28.0N 72.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 30.0N 73.5W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 53.8W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT24 KNHC 032042
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2010
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF COLIN.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 53.8W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 30 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 53.8W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 52.4W
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.8N 57.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.4N 60.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 63.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.7N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 28.0N 72.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 30.0N 73.5W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 53.8W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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WTNT44 KNHC 032043
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010
THE CENTER OF COLIN PASSED NEAR OR OVER THE WOODS HOLE NTAS BUOY
ABOUT 15Z...WHICH REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB AND A
SMALL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. HOWEVER...NEITHER THAT BUOY NOR THE
NEARBY NOAA BUOY 41040 REPORTED WINDS SUPPORTING A CLOSED
CIRCULATION...AND WESTERLY WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY APPARENT IN LOW
CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED. BASED ON THIS...COLIN HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER A SMALL
AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER.
IN THE SHORT TERM...REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE REMNANTS OF
COLIN ENCOUNTER WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...NONE
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THEY FORECAST THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD REACH A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES BY DAY 5. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HR AND CONTINUE AS A 30 KT REMNANT LOW THROUGH
96 HR. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE COULD REGENERATE INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS SHOWN IN THE 120-HR FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN EXTREMELY RAPID 285/30. ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE REMNANTS OF COLIN SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR IN DIRECTION TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS MUCH FASTER. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR 96-120 HR FORECASTS WESTWARD...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DO LIKEWISE.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF COLIN.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2100Z 15.8N 53.8W 35 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 57.2W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.4N 60.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 63.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 21.7N 66.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z 28.0N 72.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 08/1800Z 30.0N 73.5W 30 KT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT44 KNHC 032043
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010
THE CENTER OF COLIN PASSED NEAR OR OVER THE WOODS HOLE NTAS BUOY
ABOUT 15Z...WHICH REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB AND A
SMALL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. HOWEVER...NEITHER THAT BUOY NOR THE
NEARBY NOAA BUOY 41040 REPORTED WINDS SUPPORTING A CLOSED
CIRCULATION...AND WESTERLY WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY APPARENT IN LOW
CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED. BASED ON THIS...COLIN HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER A SMALL
AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER.
IN THE SHORT TERM...REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE REMNANTS OF
COLIN ENCOUNTER WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...NONE
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THEY FORECAST THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD REACH A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES BY DAY 5. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HR AND CONTINUE AS A 30 KT REMNANT LOW THROUGH
96 HR. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE COULD REGENERATE INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS SHOWN IN THE 120-HR FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN EXTREMELY RAPID 285/30. ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE REMNANTS OF COLIN SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR IN DIRECTION TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS MUCH FASTER. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR 96-120 HR FORECASTS WESTWARD...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DO LIKEWISE.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF COLIN.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2100Z 15.8N 53.8W 35 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 57.2W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.4N 60.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 63.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 21.7N 66.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z 28.0N 72.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 08/1800Z 30.0N 73.5W 30 KT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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HURAKAN
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737
WTNT24 KNHC 052058
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 66.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 66.3W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.8W
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 35SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 66.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
590
WTNT44 KNHC 052101
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF COLIN HAVE DEVELOPED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION TO AGAIN BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND 500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 50-52 KT AND SFMR WINDS
NEAR 40 KT EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN AT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/17. COLIN IS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW 27N74W...WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
EASTERN CANADA. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE COLIN TO TURN
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT
36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND GRADUAL
ACCELERATION INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
FORWARD SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER UKMET. THE
FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES IN SPEED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND
IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
COLIN IS EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 12-24
HR...WITH THE STORM FINDING A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FROM
24-72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH FOR 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE GFDL
AND HWRF CALL FOR COLIN TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72
HR...WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM ARE LESS INTENSE. THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE MODELS. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT ABOUT 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE AT
120 HR.
INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 24.9N 66.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT24 KNHC 052058
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 66.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 66.3W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.8W
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 35SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 66.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
590
WTNT44 KNHC 052101
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF COLIN HAVE DEVELOPED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION TO AGAIN BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND 500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 50-52 KT AND SFMR WINDS
NEAR 40 KT EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN AT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/17. COLIN IS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW 27N74W...WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
EASTERN CANADA. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE COLIN TO TURN
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT
36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND GRADUAL
ACCELERATION INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
FORWARD SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER UKMET. THE
FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES IN SPEED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND
IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
COLIN IS EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 12-24
HR...WITH THE STORM FINDING A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FROM
24-72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH FOR 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE GFDL
AND HWRF CALL FOR COLIN TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72
HR...WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM ARE LESS INTENSE. THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE MODELS. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT ABOUT 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE AT
120 HR.
INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 24.9N 66.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Last edited by HURAKAN on Thu Aug 05, 2010 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139025
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - ADVISORIES
KNHC 052058
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 66.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 66.3W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.8W
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 35SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 66.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 66.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 66.3W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.8W
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 35SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 66.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - ADVISORIES
590
WTNT44 KNHC 052101
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF COLIN HAVE DEVELOPED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION TO AGAIN BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND 500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 50-52 KT AND SFMR WINDS
NEAR 40 KT EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN AT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/17. COLIN IS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW 27N74W...WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
EASTERN CANADA. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE COLIN TO TURN
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT
36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND GRADUAL
ACCELERATION INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
FORWARD SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER UKMET. THE
FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES IN SPEED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND
IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
COLIN IS EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 12-24
HR...WITH THE STORM FINDING A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FROM
24-72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH FOR 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE GFDL
AND HWRF CALL FOR COLIN TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72
HR...WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM ARE LESS INTENSE. THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE MODELS. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT ABOUT 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE AT
120 HR.
INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 24.9N 66.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT44 KNHC 052101
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF COLIN HAVE DEVELOPED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION TO AGAIN BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND 500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 50-52 KT AND SFMR WINDS
NEAR 40 KT EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN AT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/17. COLIN IS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW 27N74W...WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
EASTERN CANADA. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE COLIN TO TURN
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT
36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND GRADUAL
ACCELERATION INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
FORWARD SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER UKMET. THE
FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES IN SPEED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND
IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
COLIN IS EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 12-24
HR...WITH THE STORM FINDING A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FROM
24-72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH FOR 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE GFDL
AND HWRF CALL FOR COLIN TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72
HR...WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM ARE LESS INTENSE. THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE MODELS. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT ABOUT 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE AT
120 HR.
INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 24.9N 66.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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736
WTNT64 KNHC 052333
TCUAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
STORM COLIN HAS STRENGTHENED...
AROUND 5 PM AST...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM COLIN HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 60
MPH...WHICH IS SOONER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THEREFORE AN
UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY BY
8 PM AST. THIS WILL SUPERCEDE THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY PRODUCT.
NOTE: DUE TO NWS COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...NHC WEB PAGE AND
RECONNAISSANCE INFORMATION ARE UNABLE TO UPDATE.
SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 66.2W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
WTNT64 KNHC 052333
TCUAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
STORM COLIN HAS STRENGTHENED...
AROUND 5 PM AST...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM COLIN HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 60
MPH...WHICH IS SOONER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THEREFORE AN
UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY BY
8 PM AST. THIS WILL SUPERCEDE THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY PRODUCT.
NOTE: DUE TO NWS COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...NHC WEB PAGE AND
RECONNAISSANCE INFORMATION ARE UNABLE TO UPDATE.
SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 66.2W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
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977
WTNT24 KNHC 052344
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
2330 UTC THU AUG 05 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 66.3W AT 05/2330Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 66.3W AT 05/2330Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.8W
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 35SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 66.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
WTNT24 KNHC 052344
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
2330 UTC THU AUG 05 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 66.3W AT 05/2330Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 66.3W AT 05/2330Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.8W
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 35SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 66.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
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637
WTNT34 KNHC 052348
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
730 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
...COLIN STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 66.3W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOW STRENGTHENING
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...730 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1030 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
WTNT34 KNHC 052348
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
730 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
...COLIN STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 66.3W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOW STRENGTHENING
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...730 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1030 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
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029
WTNT44 KNHC 060001
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
730 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO PRIMARILY UPDATE THE
INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS.
SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM COLIN
REPORTED A 600-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 71 KT ABOUT 14 NMI NORTHEAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1005
MB WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF
THESE VALUES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL MESOVORTEX LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
LARGER-SCALE WIND FIELD. FOR THIS REASON...THE INTENSITY WAS
INITIALIZED AT 40 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH NEARBY SFMR WINDS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE TIME OF THAT RECON REPORT...DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF COLIN HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP CLOSER
TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH JUSTIFIES INCREASING
THE INTENSITY TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS. SINCE A FORECAST INTENSITY OF 50 KT WAS NOT
EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL 48 HOURS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS REQUIRED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY AND TO
ADJUST THE INTENSITY FORECAST UPWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ALSO...DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES AN EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND
RADII IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS NECESSARY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING
WERE MADE.
INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2330Z 25.6N 66.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
WTNT44 KNHC 060001
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
730 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO PRIMARILY UPDATE THE
INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS.
SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM COLIN
REPORTED A 600-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 71 KT ABOUT 14 NMI NORTHEAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1005
MB WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF
THESE VALUES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL MESOVORTEX LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
LARGER-SCALE WIND FIELD. FOR THIS REASON...THE INTENSITY WAS
INITIALIZED AT 40 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH NEARBY SFMR WINDS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE TIME OF THAT RECON REPORT...DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF COLIN HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP CLOSER
TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH JUSTIFIES INCREASING
THE INTENSITY TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS. SINCE A FORECAST INTENSITY OF 50 KT WAS NOT
EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL 48 HOURS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS REQUIRED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY AND TO
ADJUST THE INTENSITY FORECAST UPWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ALSO...DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES AN EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND
RADII IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS NECESSARY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING
WERE MADE.
INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2330Z 25.6N 66.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - ADVISORIES
When you click on the 730 PM Update on the NHC Website... this is what comes up 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Nevermind, it's updated...
000
WTNT64 KNHC 170527
TCUAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
1225 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE EASTERN END OF
SANTA ROSA ISLAND...JUST SOUTHEAST OF FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA
AROUND 1210 AM CDT...0510 UTC.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Nevermind, it's updated...
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - ADVISORIES
MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
COLIN HAS MAINTAINED A SATELLITE CLOUD SIGNATURE SIMILAR TO WHEN A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THE SYSTEM 6 HOURS AGO. SINCE
THEN...A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS WANED A LITTLE
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BETWEEN THE CENTER OF COLIN AND
NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED 225 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST SUPPORTS KEEPING
THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. COLIN IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
BY 72 HOURS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE
FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST THROUGH 48
HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION. COLIN IS EXPECTED
TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA IN 36-48 HOURS...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT
DEVIATION TO THE EAST COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER BERMUDA.
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-25 KT CONTINUES TO HINDER
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF COLIN...AND THESE UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...FROM 36 TO 48 HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS COLIN
PASSES BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS AND MOVES UNDER A SMALL
RIDGE...WHICH PROVIDES A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR COLIN TO
STRENGTHEN. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS BRING COLIN TO NEAR 60 KT BY
48 HOURS...WHEN THE CYCLONE IS NEAR BERMUDA...AND THIS TREND WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0300Z 26.3N 66.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 27.4N 66.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 29.1N 67.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 30.7N 66.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 32.6N 66.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 37.2N 63.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 43.0N 57.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 50.5N 45.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
COLIN HAS MAINTAINED A SATELLITE CLOUD SIGNATURE SIMILAR TO WHEN A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THE SYSTEM 6 HOURS AGO. SINCE
THEN...A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS WANED A LITTLE
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BETWEEN THE CENTER OF COLIN AND
NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED 225 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST SUPPORTS KEEPING
THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. COLIN IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
BY 72 HOURS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE
FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST THROUGH 48
HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION. COLIN IS EXPECTED
TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA IN 36-48 HOURS...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT
DEVIATION TO THE EAST COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER BERMUDA.
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-25 KT CONTINUES TO HINDER
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF COLIN...AND THESE UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...FROM 36 TO 48 HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS COLIN
PASSES BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS AND MOVES UNDER A SMALL
RIDGE...WHICH PROVIDES A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR COLIN TO
STRENGTHEN. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS BRING COLIN TO NEAR 60 KT BY
48 HOURS...WHEN THE CYCLONE IS NEAR BERMUDA...AND THIS TREND WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0300Z 26.3N 66.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 27.4N 66.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 29.1N 67.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 30.7N 66.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 32.6N 66.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 37.2N 63.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 43.0N 57.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 50.5N 45.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 060533
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
200 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010
...COLIN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 67.1W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.1 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER THE ISLAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...
WITH SOME STRENGTHENING FORECAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.
RAINFALL...HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA BY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ON THE ISLAND.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
WTNT34 KNHC 060533
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
200 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010
...COLIN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 67.1W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.1 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER THE ISLAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...
WITH SOME STRENGTHENING FORECAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.
RAINFALL...HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA BY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ON THE ISLAND.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139025
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - ADVISORIES
For the record, here is the 5 AM advisory.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 060835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010
...COLIN WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF BERMUDA ON
SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 67.4W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.4 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA ON SATURDAY...
HOWEVER ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK
COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER THE ISLAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY
...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING FORECAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.
RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
KNHC 060838
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ANALYZED AT 25 KT BY THE SHIPS MODEL...HAS
AGAIN TAKEN A TOLL ON COLIN...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW
COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE PULSING DEEP CONVECTION. AN
ASCAT PASS AROUND 0118 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL 35-40 KT RETRIEVALS EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT IN 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD GIVE COLIN AN OPPORTUNITY TO
RE-INTENSIFY. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR INCREASES RAPIDLY AGAIN BY 48
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THAT TIME. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARD THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AFTER THAT.
THE 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/12...TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. COLIN IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ANCHORED BY ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 27N 75W AND
ANOTHER NEAR BERMUDA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE LOWS
WILL MOVE AWAY AND ALLOW COLIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER SPEED
INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN
CANADA. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN COLIN AND
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE TROUGH VARIES WIDELY IN THE
GUIDANCE...AND SO DOES THE FORWARD SPEED AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL MOVE COLIN MORE SLOWLY AND DELAY
INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH UNTIL AROUND DAY 4...WHILE THE UKMET...
NOGAPS...AND HWRF TAKE COLIN MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOW
INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH ABOUT A DAY EARLIER. GIVEN THAT
THE 72-HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS FROM THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE ABOUT
1000 MILES APART...THIS TRACK FORECAST HAS LOW CONFIDENCE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE
TO THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES ALONG
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE THE
FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. ONE
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT IF COLIN REMAINS A SHALLOW SYSTEM
WITHOUT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...IT COULD MOVE FARTHER TO THE LEFT
AND MORE SLOWLY IN THE SHORT TERM ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
SHALLOW BAM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 26.8N 67.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 27.9N 67.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 29.8N 67.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 31.5N 66.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 33.6N 65.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 38.5N 62.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 44.0N 56.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 50.5N 45.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTNT34 KNHC 060835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010
...COLIN WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF BERMUDA ON
SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 67.4W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.4 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA ON SATURDAY...
HOWEVER ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK
COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER THE ISLAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY
...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING FORECAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.
RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
KNHC 060838
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ANALYZED AT 25 KT BY THE SHIPS MODEL...HAS
AGAIN TAKEN A TOLL ON COLIN...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW
COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE PULSING DEEP CONVECTION. AN
ASCAT PASS AROUND 0118 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL 35-40 KT RETRIEVALS EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT IN 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD GIVE COLIN AN OPPORTUNITY TO
RE-INTENSIFY. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR INCREASES RAPIDLY AGAIN BY 48
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THAT TIME. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARD THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AFTER THAT.
THE 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/12...TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. COLIN IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ANCHORED BY ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 27N 75W AND
ANOTHER NEAR BERMUDA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE LOWS
WILL MOVE AWAY AND ALLOW COLIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER SPEED
INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN
CANADA. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN COLIN AND
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE TROUGH VARIES WIDELY IN THE
GUIDANCE...AND SO DOES THE FORWARD SPEED AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL MOVE COLIN MORE SLOWLY AND DELAY
INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH UNTIL AROUND DAY 4...WHILE THE UKMET...
NOGAPS...AND HWRF TAKE COLIN MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOW
INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH ABOUT A DAY EARLIER. GIVEN THAT
THE 72-HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS FROM THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE ABOUT
1000 MILES APART...THIS TRACK FORECAST HAS LOW CONFIDENCE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE
TO THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES ALONG
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE THE
FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. ONE
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT IF COLIN REMAINS A SHALLOW SYSTEM
WITHOUT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...IT COULD MOVE FARTHER TO THE LEFT
AND MORE SLOWLY IN THE SHORT TERM ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
SHALLOW BAM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 26.8N 67.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 27.9N 67.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 29.8N 67.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 31.5N 66.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 33.6N 65.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 38.5N 62.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 44.0N 56.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 50.5N 45.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139025
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - ADVISORIES
WTNT34 KNHC 061142
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
800 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010
...COLIN TURNS NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SLOWS ITS FORWARD SPEED...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 67.2W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA ON SATURDAY...
HOWEVER ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK
COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER THE ISLAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOME
STRENGTHENING FORECAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.
RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
800 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010
...COLIN TURNS NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SLOWS ITS FORWARD SPEED...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 67.2W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA ON SATURDAY...
HOWEVER ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK
COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER THE ISLAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOME
STRENGTHENING FORECAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.
RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 061449
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010
COLIN SHOWS A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS BY 20-25 KT
OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK AND AMSU SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND REMAIN NEAR 35 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE COLIN
AROUND 18Z TODAY.
JUST AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE CENTER OF COLIN TOOK A SHARP
TURN TO THE RIGHT...AND IT HAS BEEN MOVING 065/6 FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY...AS THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OF HIGHER PRESSURES TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
WEST SUPPORT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.
THAT MOTION SHOULD BRING COLIN NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
INTO THE WESTERLIES...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE REMAIN SOME
SPREAD IN THE SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER NOGAPS.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE EAST BASED ON THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION AND IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET
AND ECMWF. SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY LATER
TODAY...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG COLIN CONTINUES THE CURRENT MOTION.
SHEAR FORECASTS FROM THE SHIPS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE CURRENT SHOULD SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...
ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC WITH ITS FORECAST
OF 11 KT OF SHEAR BY 00Z. AFTER THIS...COLIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL IT REACHES
STRONGER SHEAR IN THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 72 HR.
THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 72 HR...
WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
SHOULD BEGIN AT ABOUT 72 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 96 HR...WITH THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECASTING COLIN TO REMAIN A STRONG CYCLONE
THROUGH THAT PROCESS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 27.1N 66.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 28.3N 66.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 30.2N 66.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 32.2N 65.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 34.5N 64.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 39.5N 60.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 45.0N 52.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 11/1200Z 53.0N 41.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
WTNT44 KNHC 061449
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010
COLIN SHOWS A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS BY 20-25 KT
OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK AND AMSU SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND REMAIN NEAR 35 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE COLIN
AROUND 18Z TODAY.
JUST AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE CENTER OF COLIN TOOK A SHARP
TURN TO THE RIGHT...AND IT HAS BEEN MOVING 065/6 FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY...AS THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OF HIGHER PRESSURES TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
WEST SUPPORT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.
THAT MOTION SHOULD BRING COLIN NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
INTO THE WESTERLIES...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE REMAIN SOME
SPREAD IN THE SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER NOGAPS.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE EAST BASED ON THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION AND IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET
AND ECMWF. SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY LATER
TODAY...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG COLIN CONTINUES THE CURRENT MOTION.
SHEAR FORECASTS FROM THE SHIPS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE CURRENT SHOULD SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...
ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC WITH ITS FORECAST
OF 11 KT OF SHEAR BY 00Z. AFTER THIS...COLIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL IT REACHES
STRONGER SHEAR IN THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 72 HR.
THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 72 HR...
WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
SHOULD BEGIN AT ABOUT 72 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 96 HR...WITH THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECASTING COLIN TO REMAIN A STRONG CYCLONE
THROUGH THAT PROCESS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 27.1N 66.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 28.3N 66.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 30.2N 66.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 32.2N 65.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 34.5N 64.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 39.5N 60.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 45.0N 52.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 11/1200Z 53.0N 41.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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