ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Another disappearing d-min or "flop".

[HURAKAN]

92L is like the phoenix ... when you think it's dead, it's just beginning to come from the ashes

[lrak]

Well put Sir HURAKAN “We are masters of the unsaid words, but slaves of those we let slip out.”

[HURAKAN]

924
ABNT20 KNHC 070551
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE LATER TODAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[chzzdekr81]

Stays at 10%....

[KWT]

Looks like the main problem for this one remains to be the lack of surface support so the convection just develops then dies off again no matter how impressive it looks.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE LATER TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[tailgater]

Well it looks like the weak center is now moving inland very near Belize city. If doesn't gain latitude, it might not even make it onto the BOC but it probably will just so I'll have to watch it.
Now if the Mid level develops again today that might be a little different story.

Zoom in
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2
Belize radar
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Radar%20Loop%20250km.htm

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 92, 2010080712, , BEST, 0, 173N, 883W, 25, 1009, DB

[tailgater]

12z Best Track

AL, 92, 2010080712, , BEST, 0, 173N, 883W, 25, 1009, DB

That puts it on the coast near Belize city. BUT most of the vorticity is father east.
850mb

700mb

500mb

steering

Doesn't want to competely die off does it.

[HURAKAN]

Remains a threat to develop in the BOC ... 850 mb vorticity looks better than ever and finally co-locating with the strongest precipitation

[KWT]

The key is whether it makes it into the BoC, probably won't need much room in the BoC to have a shot but not sure it'll get that space.

[HURAKAN]

In August, almost everything has some possibility to develop ... we need to keep an eye on everything

[HURAKAN]

At some point, something gotta give ... excellent upper level conditions, Yucatan may force the low levels to tighten and we could see development in the BOC

Sounds like Bret, José, Lorenzo - type scenario

[CrazyC83]

At some point, something gotta give ... excellent upper level conditions, Yucatan may force the low levels to tighten and we could see development in the BOC

Sounds like Bret, José, Lorenzo - type scenario

That is my thinking too. This may end up Earl in the end there (assuming 93L becomes Danielle).

[HURAKAN]

Moving over Yucatan

[cycloneye]

Now let's see what it does when it emerges in the BOC. I guess it depends in what latitude the MLC emerges.

[KWT]

At some point, something gotta give ... excellent upper level conditions, Yucatan may force the low levels to tighten and we could see development in the BOC

Sounds like Bret, José, Lorenzo - type scenario

I agree but it all depends on whether it makes it to the BoC...if it does make it then the storms you outline certainly could be a decent outline for what may happen, the Yucatan sure does help to tighten everything up at the lower levels usually.

[HURAKAN]

KWT, if the steering currents map is correct, it should have enough time in the BOC. Lets see

[supercane]

Still underneath an anticyclone, but poor convergence at the sfc. No signs of W winds with sfc obs.