ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

There's not enough time to organize. Also, the convection has weakened somewhat. At best a TD at this point

So, it's not going into Central America anymore? Keep downcasting everything.

It's going to hit the Yucatan in a day or so.

How many times have a disturbance hit Yucatan before developing in the BOC?

Yucatan can actually help the surface circulation to tighten up.

[South Texas Storms]

this is no threat to the u.s. because of the highs to the north of it, right?

[HURAKAN]

Just an example. Cindy in 2005.

[chzzdekr81]

this is no threat to the u.s. because of the highs to the north of it, right?

Can't rule it out, but I don't think it will be a threat to the U.S.
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[HURAKAN]

Convection is likely to weaken tonight bcause of D-Min and there is no surface center, but 92L has shown it's a force to reckon with.

[mattpetre]

I always hate it when my perception doesn't see/agree with what wxman57 says (because 90% of the time he is dead on and also because he is much more versed in the weather than I), but in this case I again am still thinking that the models are not in total agreement on how the high builds into the GOM. I think if this blob continues to grow at the current rate that there may be more chance of a turn. Total non-professional disclaimer here....just a guy guessing.

[HURAKAN]

greatest vorticity moving NW

[hurricaneCW]

It doesn't appear to be heading into the BOC, if it does, it'll hug the the extreme southern part. Too close to land to get going. It is clearly organizing, just not enough time.

[chzzdekr81]

It doesn't appear to be heading into the BOC, if it does, it'll hug the the extreme southern part. Too close to land to get going. It is clearly organizing, just not enough time.

What do you mean it doesn't appear to be heading into the BoC? Almost every spaghetti model shows it going over it. Please explain.

[South Texas Storms]

is it moving northwest?

[chzzdekr81]

is it moving northwest?

Looks to me it's moving West or WNW.

[hurricaneCW]

It doesn't appear to be heading into the BOC, if it does, it'll hug the the extreme southern part. Too close to land to get going. It is clearly organizing, just not enough time.

What do you mean it doesn't appear to be heading into the BoC? Almost every spaghetti model shows it going over it. Please explain.

I just saw some of the models and they bring it over the extreme southern part of the BOC, very close to land. I'm thinking it's inflow will be blocked off and it'll have a hard time reorganizing due to proximity of land.

[chzzdekr81]

It doesn't appear to be heading into the BOC, if it does, it'll hug the the extreme southern part. Too close to land to get going. It is clearly organizing, just not enough time.

What do you mean it doesn't appear to be heading into the BoC? Almost every spaghetti model shows it going over it. Please explain.

I just saw some of the models and they bring it over the extreme southern part of the BOC, very close to land. I'm thinking it's inflow will be blocked off and it'll have a hard time reorganizing due to proximity of land.

It's close, but it still looks like it's heading into the BoC. I respect your opinion. I guess we will just have to wait and see.

[HURAKAN]

NOW:



24 HOURS AGO:



big difference

[chzzdekr81]

NOW:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... .100pc.jpg

24 HOURS AGO:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... .100pc.jpg

big difference

In those two images, it looks like the whole system moved NNW overnight.

[HURAKAN]

The upper level conditions are amazing ... no sign of shear anywhere

[cycloneye]

This radar from Belize will be interesting to look at in the next 12-24 hours.

[chzzdekr81]

What's everyone's predictions for the percentage of this to form in the next 48 hours at the 8 PM update?

[HURAKAN]

What's everyone's predictions for the percentage of this to form in the next 48 hours at the 8 PM update?

40-50% ... I think

It seems you need a hurricane menacing an American city to make S2K come to life

[Florida1118]

30%. I dont see them jumping very high because it just flared up a bit ago. But conditions are Favorable so...30-40