ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

#61 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 03, 2010 11:55 pm

Well the Nogaps and Canadian fail to develop this either.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

#62 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:02 am

Ivanhater wrote:Well the Nogaps and Canadian fail to develop this either.


if the CMC doesnt see it then it probably is toast....I look to the CMC for development and EURO to track......lets see what happen tonight and tomorrow.....

off to bed now got to catch a plane in the morning....
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

#63 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:03 am

If they run the HWRF and GFDL tonight it should be out soon..
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

#64 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:08 am

Eh, doesn't look like they are running them tonight
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

#65 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:14 am

figures...you keep me up for another 10 minutes waiting on the runs....... :lol:

if I miss my plane I blame you!! :lol:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

#66 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:15 am

ROCK wrote:figures...you keep me up for another 10 minutes waiting on the runs....... :lol:

if I miss my plane I blame you!! :lol:


My bad! :lol:

You never know when they are going to run those...it's not up on the FSU site which usually has it first.
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#67 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 04, 2010 5:05 am

Models suggest a classic last min attempted development, whether or not it happens I don't know, but it looks reasonable enough right now.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

#68 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 04, 2010 7:21 am

last minute attempt means central America
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#69 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 04, 2010 7:30 am

Oh without a doubt, land could well help to tighten the system but we need to keep a close eye on how that weak ULL behaves to the west, its not the strongest feature in the world but needs to be kept an eye on.
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#70 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 04, 2010 8:31 am

279
WHXX01 KWBC 041324
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1324 UTC WED AUG 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100804 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100804 1200 100805 0000 100805 1200 100806 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 72.5W 15.2N 75.5W 15.9N 78.3W 16.8N 80.9W
BAMD 14.2N 72.5W 15.1N 75.1W 16.0N 77.4W 17.0N 79.5W
BAMM 14.2N 72.5W 15.0N 75.3W 15.9N 78.0W 16.9N 80.4W
LBAR 14.2N 72.5W 15.0N 75.2W 16.2N 77.7W 17.5N 80.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100806 1200 100807 1200 100808 1200 100809 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 83.4W 18.7N 87.9W 20.0N 92.5W 21.8N 97.3W
BAMD 17.8N 81.4W 19.1N 84.8W 20.3N 88.6W 21.5N 92.6W
BAMM 17.8N 82.7W 19.2N 86.9W 20.8N 91.4W 22.9N 95.6W
LBAR 18.6N 82.4W 20.9N 85.9W 23.1N 88.8W 25.3N 90.4W
SHIP 52KTS 64KTS 72KTS 75KTS
DSHP 52KTS 64KTS 40KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 72.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 69.5W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 66.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

#71 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 04, 2010 11:23 am

not much to look at on 12z gfs
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

#72 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 04, 2010 11:25 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:not much to look at on 12z gfs


Image

yeah
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#73 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 04, 2010 1:16 pm

Yawn......oh well I'll be going to bed early for the forseeable
future.
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Re:

#74 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 04, 2010 1:21 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Yawn......oh well I'll be going to bed early for the forseeable
future.


You're not alone my friend... you're not alone... :(
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

#75 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 04, 2010 1:45 pm

18z tropical suite

Code: Select all

583
WHXX01 KWBC 041823
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC WED AUG 4 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100804 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100804  1800   100805  0600   100805  1800   100806  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.0N  73.9W   14.8N  76.7W   15.7N  79.4W   16.5N  81.8W
BAMD    14.0N  73.9W   14.9N  76.5W   15.9N  78.8W   16.9N  80.9W
BAMM    14.0N  73.9W   14.8N  76.6W   15.8N  79.1W   16.8N  81.4W
LBAR    14.0N  73.9W   14.7N  76.5W   15.7N  79.1W   16.9N  81.7W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          39KTS          47KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          39KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100806  1800   100807  1800   100808  1800   100809  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.2N  84.2W   18.4N  88.7W   20.0N  93.5W   21.9N  98.2W
BAMD    17.8N  82.7W   19.0N  86.4W   20.2N  90.3W   21.1N  94.5W
BAMM    17.7N  83.5W   19.0N  87.8W   20.8N  92.2W   22.6N  96.4W
LBAR    17.9N  84.0W   19.8N  88.0W   21.9N  91.5W   24.3N  94.0W
SHIP        57KTS          69KTS          77KTS          81KTS
DSHP        57KTS          58KTS          42KTS          47KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.0N LONCUR =  73.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  13.9N LONM12 =  71.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  68.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN




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#76 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 04, 2010 1:57 pm

12z EURO is clean
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

#77 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 04, 2010 3:11 pm

Looking good! 92L stays well south even if it were to develop.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

#78 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 04, 2010 3:18 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Looking good! 92L stays well south even if it were to develop.



Yep, you called it last night. Looks like you are right about it staying way south.
Most of the models agree with you....

Hopefully in a couple of weeks something else will develop for us to watch...
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#79 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 04, 2010 3:24 pm

500 High even though it builds west slightly over the Plains just to strong.
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#80 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 04, 2010 4:17 pm

Oh yeah the 18z run that took it off to the north was way too strong with the upper trough, this was always going to be the most likely evolution to the pattern.

Models should head into land, the key uncertainty is whether it hits Belize or further south...those 4-6hrs over water between the two could actually be vital to this systems chances of developing.
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