EPAC: Ex ESTELLE

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 090837
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
200 AM PDT MON AUG 09 2010

ANOTHER STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -75C TO
-85C HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A BLEND OF SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY
OF 40 KT USING A SHEAR PATTERN...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 41 KT. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ESTELLE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN A WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT THE BEST MOTION ESTIMATE FOR
THIS ADVISORY IS 270/4. ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS THE
LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
THEN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO BE DRAWN
BACK INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH AND POSSIBLY BE
ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL REGION OF DRY STABLE AIR HAS
BEEN TRAVERSING THE CYCLONE...WHICH HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN THE
EARLIER EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...TO THE EAST OF
THE CYCLONE IS AN APPARENT REGION OF INSTABILITY THAT CONTAINS DEEP
CONVECTION. AS THAT NARROW UNSTABLE REGION MOVES ACROSS ESTELLE...
NEW CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...HELPING
THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 6 TO
PERHAPS 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 20 KT...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS
DISSIPATE ESTELLE BY 72 HOURS...WHEREAS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN ESTELLE AS A WEAK CYCLONE THROUGH AT
LEAST 96 HOURS. THE LATTER SCENARIO WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 17.7N 112.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 17.6N 112.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 17.5N 113.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 17.4N 114.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 11/0600Z 17.2N 114.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 12/0600Z 16.7N 113.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 13/0600Z 16.2N 112.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 091437
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
800 AM PDT MON AUG 09 2010

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER
AS SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT ESTELLE. THE MORNING
VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOSTLY
SURROUNDED BY STABLE LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE LOWERED
TO 35 KT. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THIS SYSTEM INTO A DEPRESSION
SOON AND A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ESTELLE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 3 KT. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR ITS REMNANTS...SHOULD SLOWLY TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST...SOUTH...AND EAST AS IT BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN MERGE
THE SYSTEM INTO A LARGER ITCZ LOW WITHIN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 17.7N 112.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 17.6N 112.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 17.5N 113.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 11/0000Z 17.4N 113.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 11/1200Z 17.1N 113.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 12/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[supercane]

Nothing but a low-level swirl now:

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 092036
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
200 PM PDT MON AUG 09 2010

...ESTELLE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 112.4W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THEN EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND
ESTELLE IS LIKELY TO DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE TOMORROW.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 092045
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
200 PM PDT MON AUG 09 2010

SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
ESTELLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINS
EXPOSED. A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFERENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. A BLEND OF THE T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB SUPPORTS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT...MAKING ESTELLE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
A SLOW SPIN DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...GIVEN FORECAST
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 25-30 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REMNANT LOW
STATUS IS PROBABLE BY 24 HOURS...OR SOONER.

ESTELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 3 KT. A
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM ROTATES
AROUND THE LARGER ITCZ CIRCULATION SOUTH OF MEXICO. RELIABLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE ONLY POTENTIAL
FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION OF
ESTELLE AFTER IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO A WARMER WATER
AND LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN A FEW DAYS. AT THIS POINT...IT
SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT ESTELLE WILL BECOME PART OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RATHER THAN THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AS SEEN
IN SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 17.7N 112.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 17.6N 112.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 17.4N 113.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 11/0600Z 17.0N 113.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 11/1800Z 16.7N 112.9W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[brunota2003]

Anyone looked at the TC now? Look at those cold tops (some probably pushing -75 or -80C)! It is definitely being sheared, but the center is now tucked under the eastern edge of the deepest convection (within the last hour or so), with the storms being sheared to the WNW. It will be interesting to see if those storms stick around, or if this is a last gasp.

[KWT]

I'd imagine it'll be a last gasp burst of convection, these sheared systems are sometimes able to burst but they struggle to hold it for too long.

[cycloneye]

LL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
800 PM PDT MON AUG 09 2010

AN EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTER OF ESTELLE HAS SUCCUMBED
TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LEAVING THE CENTER EXPOSED
TO THE EAST OF WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS. NEVERTHELESS...THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS WELL-DEFINED AND FAIRLY VIGOROUS.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE AT 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND
SERVE AS THE BASIS FOR KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT. THE
SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASING TO 30-35 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS PROHIBITIVELY
HIGH FOR THE SURVIVAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS ESTELLE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...THOUGH THIS
COULD OCCUR SOONER.

RECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE A SLOW WESTERLY MOTION...BUT THE
LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST. ESTELLE OR
ITS REMNANT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH AND THEN EAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO ITS EAST
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS TRACK SCENARIO.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT ESTELLE...OR ITS
REMNANT...ABSORBING THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ESTELLE COULD
REGENERATE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SOMEWHAT REDUCED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS JUNCTURE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 17.6N 113.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 17.6N 113.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 17.3N 113.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 12/0000Z 16.5N 112.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 13/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 2010

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF ESTELLE DISSIPATED AROUND
01Z...BUT SOME MODEST CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -62C
REDEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 05Z AND HAS PERSISTED
SINCE THEN. THAT CONVECTION...ALONG WITH TIGHT LOW-LEVEL BANDING
FEATURES/CLOUD LINES NOTED IN VARIOUS MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS...IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR KEEPING ESTELLE BARELY
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS ADVISORY.

MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS SINCE 00Z INDICATE ESTELLE HAS MADE A
SLOW TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MOTION ESTIMATE NOW OF
235/02. AS ESTELLE CONTINUES TO WEAKENS AND BECOME A MORE SHALLOW
CYCLONE...THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD AS IT
GETS DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT ESTELLE REMAINS A
SEPARATE ENTITY OR GETS ABSORBED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS
THE ONLY MODEL NOW THAT HAS ESTELLE BEING ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD HASTEN THE
DEMISE OF ESTELLE LEAVING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 12
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
MODELS. HOWEVER...BY 72 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY
ALL OF THE MODELS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KT...WHICH LEAVES
OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT DOES NOT WEAKEN
ESTELLE AS MUCH OR AS QUICKLY AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 17.4N 113.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 17.3N 113.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 11/0600Z 17.0N 113.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.6N 113.1W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 12/0600Z 16.2N 112.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 13/0600Z 15.8N 111.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[KWT]

Looks like Estelle is pretty much gone now, nothing really to see with this system now...

[supercane]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 101444
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 2010

...ESTELLE WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 112.9W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE REMNANT LOW OF ESTELLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST. THE LOW IS
DRIFTING TO THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR AND A SLOW EAST TO
SOUTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER ORRISON

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 101443
TCMEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1500 UTC TUE AUG 10 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 112.9W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 112.9W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.1N 112.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.9N 112.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.7N 111.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 112.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER ORRISON

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 101445
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 2010

STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS TAKEN A FINAL TOLL ON ESTELLE AS
DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED AROUND THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CENTER...WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MODEST BURSTS OF WEAK CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. BASED ON THE LACK OF ANY PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ESTELLE NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS.

THE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND GET DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON WHETHER OR NOT
ESTELLE REMAINS A SEPARATE ENTITY OR GETS ABSORBED BY THE
DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. GIVEN THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...THE
LATTER SEEMS MORE LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND GENERALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 17.3N 112.9W 25 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 17.1N 112.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 11/1200Z 16.9N 112.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 12/0000Z 16.7N 111.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 12/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 13/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ORRISON

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 101444
PWSEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1500 UTC TUE AUG 10 2010

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...
30 MPH...45 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 7 17 22 23 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 79 59 49 44 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 15 24 29 32 NA NA NA
HURRICANE X 1 1 2 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 2 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 25KT 25KT 25KT 25KT NA NA NA


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER ORRISON