EPAC: Ex ESTELLE

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PGTW 050000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 95.3W TO 15.4N 100.3W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 042330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.6W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.6W IS
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVING
CONSOLIDATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY
EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. A 042044Z AMSU
89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTHWEST WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTH QUADRANT. A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM DGZN AT 04/18Z INDICATED
WINDS 250/11 WITH SLP 1012 MB AND SUPPORT THE CURRENT POSITION.
OVERALL, CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST
06-12 HOURS, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF CUBA. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 060000Z.//
NNNN

[Cyclenall]

I think this is the fastest forming system pre-cyclone yet in the Epac this year. Was just tagged as an Invest this morning and now could become a TC at any time. Went from 20% chance to 70% in 12 hours (Atlantic take a hint ).

A WESTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

I read this and I couldn't understand why the NHC thought land proximity would be a issue, it was far enough off to organize without any problems.

[clfenwi]

2AM TWO keeps 48h probability of formation at 70%

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

[KWT]

Convection is explosive with this one it has to be said, pretty much booming close to the coast but I suspect its being well sheared at the moment.

[HURAKAN]

654
ABPZ20 KNHC 051143
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[KWT]

Hmmm looks like its stalled out at 70% then!

[HURAKAN]

12z

EP, 99, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1003W, 25, 1007, LO

[HURAKAN]

An unofficial track (internal):

Code: Select all

0     14.6     263.1     25
12    14.7    261.5    35
24    15.1    259.9    40
36    15.8    258    50
48    16.7    256.1    60
72    18    253    65
96    19    250    60
120    20    246.5    55

[KWT]

Hmmm so they take this upto hurricane strength, most interesting, I'd be a little surprised if it gets that strong due to the shear but I do expect strengthening to a TS fairly soon.

[clfenwi]

ABPZ20 KNHC 051741
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[clfenwi]

18Z best track

EP, 99, 2010080518, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1008W, 25, 1007

[KWT]

Looks a little weaker compared to before but its still likely to become our next system in the EPAC IMO.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PHNC 052030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/042351ZAUG2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 95.3W TO 15.4N 100.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.1N 100.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N
95.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 100.8W, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
IS SHOWING MARKED SIGNS OF STEADY CONSOLIDATION. HOWEVER, INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. NONETHELESS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS LIKELY
STRENGTHENING BENEATH THIS CONVECTION AS MID TO LOW LEVEL BANDING
TIGHTENS TOWARDS THE CENTER. SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION INDICATE SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RANGING FROM
1011-13 MB. IT CAN BE INFERRED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE
DISTURBANCE FALLS AT THE LOWER END (OR EVEN BELOW) THIS PRESSURE
RANGE. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED
CONSOLIDATION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW AND VENTING IS ADEQUATE
(TO THE EAST). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A
(WTPN21 PHNC 05000).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
062030Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

At 0300z or 8 PDT, it would be 38 straight days without a named system in the EPAC.

[KWT]

Wow 38 days, thats pretty impressive considering we are now getting fairly deep into the season!

I'd imagine this system will break that drought sooner rather then later but its still not quite there just yet...pretty interesting its been close but not quite there for a good 24hrs now after such a quick ramp up...easterly shear just appears to be preventing development still.

[HURAKAN]

882
ABPZ20 KNHC 052336
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
135 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY
TIME TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep992010_ep072010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008060044
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 07, 2010, DB, O, 2010080412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP072010
EP, 07, 2010080312, , BEST, 0, 158N, 933W, 15, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 07, 2010080318, , BEST, 0, 155N, 936W, 15, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 07, 2010080400, , BEST, 0, 153N, 939W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 07, 2010080406, , BEST, 0, 151N, 943W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 07, 2010080412, , BEST, 0, 149N, 949W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 07, 2010080418, , BEST, 0, 147N, 962W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 07, 2010080500, , BEST, 0, 147N, 976W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 140, 40, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 07, 2010080506, , BEST, 0, 149N, 990W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 140, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 07, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1000W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 140, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 07, 2010080518, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1008W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 140, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 07, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1017W, 30, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 100, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[HURAKAN]

05/2345 UTC 15.8N 101.6W T2.5/2.5 99E -- East Pacific

35 knots

[Macrocane]

Finally, the basins on this side of the world are showing signs of life again.

[KWT]

Impressive to see Dvorak going upto 2.5 already, will be upgraded to 30kts though...