EPAC: Ex ESTELLE

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep992010.invest
FSTDA
R
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040
010
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201008041305
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NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 99, 2010, DB, O, 2010080412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP992010
EP, 99, 2010080312, , BEST, 0, 159N, 932W, 15, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2010080318, , BEST, 0, 156N, 935W, 15, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2010080400, , BEST, 0, 153N, 938W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2010080406, , BEST, 0, 151N, 941W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2010080412, , BEST, 0, 150N, 945W, 20, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[HURAKAN]

558
WHXX01 KMIA 041307
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1307 UTC WED AUG 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992010) 20100804 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100804 1200 100805 0000 100805 1200 100806 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 94.5W 15.1N 96.4W 15.0N 98.1W 15.4N 99.5W
BAMD 15.0N 94.5W 15.0N 96.4W 14.9N 98.1W 15.1N 99.6W
BAMM 15.0N 94.5W 15.1N 96.4W 15.1N 98.1W 15.4N 99.5W
LBAR 15.0N 94.5W 15.0N 96.1W 15.3N 97.8W 15.9N 99.6W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100806 1200 100807 1200 100808 1200 100809 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 100.8W 17.1N 103.4W 17.7N 106.1W 17.6N 109.2W
BAMD 15.5N 101.1W 16.6N 104.0W 17.6N 107.2W 18.4N 111.3W
BAMM 16.0N 100.9W 17.1N 103.8W 17.8N 107.0W 17.8N 110.9W
LBAR 16.8N 101.4W 19.3N 104.8W 21.4N 107.8W 23.6N 109.8W
SHIP 43KTS 59KTS 64KTS 64KTS
DSHP 43KTS 59KTS 64KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 94.5W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 15.3N LONM12 = 93.8W DIRM12 = 229DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 93.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

latest

[NOLA2010]

Did we skip 98E?

[HURAKAN]

Did we skip 98E?

Someone didn't have their morning coffee!!!

[KWT]

Hmmm looks like a developing system already to me, I strongly suspect this one will be our next player...should go upto orange soon if it carries on.

[HURAKAN]

greatest vorticity is still over land

[KWT]

Yeah that is true Hurakan, still given it is easing its way WSW at the moment it'll probably get totally in the juice sooner or later so to speak!

[clfenwi]

As KWT expected, Code Orange at 2 PM TWO:

A WESTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AND THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[clfenwi]

18z best track
EP, 99, 2010080418, , BEST, 0, 148N, 956W, 25, 1008

latest

[hurricaneCW]

This is a nice organizing storm although it's being impacted by some easterly shear.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Probably going to be a code Red with this one soon, its looking pretty good I have to admit....though the shear will be an issue I suspect.

[clfenwi]

Indeed, it is now code red:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
ANGEL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[KWT]

Right upto 70%, quite a quick developer from the looks of things, just depends on whether the shear decides to pick up or not.

I expect we will have a TD pretty soon....

[srainhoutx]

Seeing the guidance spread to Baja does raise an eyebrow. Worth watching IMO.

[Macrocane]

Could this become Estelle? I do think so, it has been more than a month since the last EPAC named storm and this cyclone drought cannot last much more IMO this system has the potential.

[KWT]

Unless the shear ramps up this could be Estelle as soon as tomorrow IMO...

[HURAKAN]

Latest