ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[KWT]

Yep.. While the overall LL cirulation has been excellent for a few days now the actual center has looked pretty ugly at times. It looks like a little eddy has formed momentarily as well. I would imagine this happens often we just don't see it under the UL clouds.

Yep thats probably true, and its not helped that the circulation has been surviving semi naked for a while now, its probably weakening and thats what is allowing these little eddies to get going...though clearly the circulation its had is still the dominant one and any decent convection will help to further establish it.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

To give you an idea how close this is to being a tropical depression, all it needs is to slide the LLC under the convection and persist for another couple of hours.

[HURAKAN]

Doesn't need to be under but it needs to persist for a few hours. Remember that the center of Danny last year was never under the convection.

[KWT]

The difference, and the only difference between this system, Colin and Danny is probably the location of the system with recon being able to fly into the other two whilst not flying into this one.

It looks a little better now though.

[HURAKAN]

wait and see, wait and see

[KWT]

Big convective bursting for sure there Hurakan, but we do need to see the center tuck into the center, if it does then no reason why it can't form....but thats been the problem for a long time now.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Doesn't need to be under but it needs to persist for a few hours. Remember that the center of Danny last year was never under the convection.

That's true. But since Recon was available the NHC really didn't care, however, out here they have to base it off of satellite agency T-numbers, and if the circulation is nestled within the convection, T-numbers will naturally go up since the cyclone would look more organized.

[HURAKAN]

even the experimental models like 93L

[HurrMark]

This one is tricky...I still think this should have been a TD a couple of days ago, but it may have degenerated. There is a chance it could regroup, but shear forecasts don't look too favorable. I think 60% is actually a pretty good forecast for TROPICAL CYCLONE development, but that doesn't necessarily mean a TS or hurricane. If it starts pulling away to the northeast as shear increases, it might become a high-latitude storm,...otherwise if it doesn't really move much it will probably just fizzle.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Slowly getting better organized...if it can hold its convection, it may beat 94L to tropical depression status.

[KWT]

I'm not sure whether the NHC will be prepared to upgrade with two fairly obvious circulations rotating around a broader low, at least not in the open Atlantic?

[supercane]

Still relatively favorable environment with low shear and anticyclone aloft:



BTW, ASCAT completely missed 93L on its descending pass.

[supercane]

even the experimental models like 93L

The FIM does develop 93L, but if you follow the loop it does not look very deep and is dissipated near the 4 day mark (hour 108). The picture you posted is not of 93L, but a separate extratropical cyclone. Otherwise the red line would track with it. Just didn't want anyone to get confused.

[HURAKAN]

Thanks supercane!!

[HURAKAN]

728
ABNT20 KNHC 101750
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS APPROACHING THE
SYSTEM AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
FORMING...AND IF SO...WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS HAS INCREASED A
LITTLE TODAY...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TOWARD AN ENVIRONMENT THAT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST FORMATION. THERE IS STILL A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH NORTHEAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[brunota2003]

The convection has lasted a while and started to expand westward toward the llc...if the convection lasts a bit longer and keeps expanding, it could be considered a TC

[HURAKAN]

it has looked better today but still no there. Nevertheless, this could be the start

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010081018, , BEST, 0, 242N, 519W, 30, 1012, LO

[HURAKAN]

latest

[HURAKAN]

10/1745 UTC 24.1N 52.0W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic

not giving up