ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[ColinDelia]

12z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010081112, , BEST, 0, 253N, 540W, 30, 1011, LO

Still west of all the convection but definitely more convection than the past few days

[HURAKAN]

11/1145 UTC 25.0N 53.9W T1.5/1.5 93L

no change

[CrazyC83]

I think if this were in the Gulf, it would be TD6 right now. But there is no need to rush anything out there.

[HURAKAN]

I still wouldn't upgrade it personally. I has never been able to hold the convection for more than a few hours.

[Iune]

Still no upgrade at 11 a.m. EDT; if anything they will upgrade at 5 p.m. today.

[HURAKAN]

Not at 5 pm either, lacking one component:

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

[ColinDelia]

It's throwing fireballs now!

[ColinDelia]

The ULL to the NW is starting to dig into it a little more now

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Both TAFB and SAB are at T1.5. That is sufficient to classify 93L as 06L. Seriously, it is just toying with tropical depression status if it isn't one already.

[cycloneye]

The long journey of 93L is over. Down to orange.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOPMENT APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/WALTON

[HURAKAN]

Less create a clean slate to begin again!!

[thetruesms]

It's throwing fireballs now!

[img]http://linkification.com/wx/fireball.jpg[img]

Come on, who let this thing eat a fire flower?!

[Aric Dunn]

Is that a anti poleward reformation I see . lol

[brunota2003]

What is that shooting away from 93L? Apparently that is what was sparking off the convection to the NE of the center, and now that mid-level? low is shooting to the NE, finally giving the LLC a chance to spark it's own convection!

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010081118, , BEST, 0, 255N, 546W, 25, 1011, LO

[cycloneye]

RIP

11/1745 UTC 24.9N 54.9W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic

[brunota2003]

Here are the two features I was talking about. The one on the right seems to be a mid-level? low that has been sparking off convection to the east/northeast of what was once a well defined low level center. That low is now shooting off to the NE. I thought that 93L was the second area, where the convection is now finally blowing up. However, looking at the coordinates of the latest Best Track estimate (along with the positioning of the T#'s), they are placing the "center" to the west of the convection which is now dissipating.

I believe that the coordinates are off, to the NE of where a new center may be forming. I was watching the low level clouds (the cumulus field, clearly evident on the imagery on the NHC site, as well as the loops), they are no longer heading that way. Earlier in the day, they were being "sucked" up toward the convection, but they have now started to back toward the new patch of convection. If you look at cycloneye's image he posted, there is one ob to the SW of the convection, reporting winds from the NW...which, if accurate, would show that there *may* be another center setting up there.

As usual, time will tell...but time is consuming. Watch the low shooting off to the NE, and watch the new ball of convection to the SW.

Here is a link to the NHC loop, watch the low level cumulus fields, there is clearly a circulation present where that new ball of convection is currently developing.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

[ColinDelia]

RIP

11/1745 UTC 24.9N 54.9W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic

[Florida1118]

Yet another Code red to add to the graveyard...It seems like right before they get to TD status, they all change their minds and go suicidal.