ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

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ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 05, 2010 7:46 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008060044
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010080600, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010080500, , BEST, 0, 115N, 367W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080506, , BEST, 0, 116N, 362W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 119N, 360W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080518, , BEST, 0, 123N, 358W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 127N, 358W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#2 Postby blazess556 » Thu Aug 05, 2010 7:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008060044
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010080600, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010080500, , BEST, 0, 115N, 367W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080506, , BEST, 0, 116N, 362W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 119N, 360W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080518, , BEST, 0, 123N, 358W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 127N, 358W, 25, 1009, DB



wow. the activity is surely picking up. and we don't even have a strong positive mjo yet.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#3 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 05, 2010 7:48 pm

This is probably the eastern Atlantic one I'm assuming...If it is, this is likely Danielle soon with great model support.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#4 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Aug 05, 2010 7:49 pm

Why didnt they put it on the 8pm TWO?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#5 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 05, 2010 7:51 pm

Florida1118 wrote:Why didnt they put it on the 8pm TWO?


They did
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 05, 2010 7:51 pm

347
ABNT20 KNHC 060006
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF NICARAGUA AND EASTERN
HONDURAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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#7 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 05, 2010 7:52 pm

Yeah it got a 20% on the advisory.

I agree this one probably will be our next TS, been thinking that for a while now based on model support...wouldn't shock me to see it become a hurricane providing it doesn't get too disrupted by the TUTT...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#8 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Aug 05, 2010 7:53 pm

Oh. There graphic said they updated it at 8:04 but they must have done that with Colin. Sorry about that.
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#9 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 05, 2010 8:10 pm

If it goes south, then I think this should become Danielle and become the next big one.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#10 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Aug 05, 2010 8:12 pm

Image
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#11 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Aug 05, 2010 8:14 pm

Like clockwork, it's Stewart who added it to the TWO. He is definately the most fun.
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#12 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 05, 2010 8:15 pm

Big unknown here is whether it picks up the ridge right away (i.e. a repeat of the last Danielle) or just dives southward and rides low.
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 05, 2010 8:23 pm

Image

Image

Only a matter of time
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#14 Postby TexasF6 » Thu Aug 05, 2010 8:34 pm

it looks terrible.
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Re:

#15 Postby Cuber » Thu Aug 05, 2010 8:35 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:Like clockwork, it's Stewart who added it to the TWO. He is definately the most fun.

Is Stewart male or female ?

National Hurricane Center Staff
Senior Hurricane Specialists
Lixion Avila, PhD
Jack Beven, PhD
Michael Brennan, PhD
Daniel Brown – Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM)
Richard Pasch, PhD
Stacy R. Stewart

Moderators ... my apologies that this is off topic ... deletion will be understood
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 05, 2010 8:41 pm

:uarrow: Male

Image
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Re: Re:

#17 Postby supercane » Thu Aug 05, 2010 8:42 pm

Cuber wrote:Is Stewart male or female ?



Male. See NHC's statement about his return from Iraq a while ago:

NHC Welcomes Back Stacy Stewart: Navy Reservist served in Iraq as part of troop surge
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#18 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 05, 2010 8:43 pm

are the steering currents not right for a u.s. landfall this season? it doesn't look like it so far.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#19 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 05, 2010 8:46 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:are the steering currents not right for a u.s. landfall this season? it doesn't look like it so far.


If Bastardi is right, they will be in about 10 to 15 days when the ridge moves from the SE US to the NE US/SE Canada.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#20 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 05, 2010 8:47 pm

where did you read/watch that? i wanna see it!
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