ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[supercane]

I don't interpret hurricaneCW's post like that, but his/her comment does not quite make sense, as being a "fish" recurving system is not synonymous with being weak or not "the big one."

[MGC]

Give 93L a few more days....these types of systems usually take their sweet time to get going.....MGC

[KWT]

I think the true measure of an active season is by its ACE, not # of storms generated. We can have 20 weak, recurving TS, but with an ACE below 100, it's a quiet season. Plus this one is going out to sea instantly so the best we see is another Bonnie/Colin type storm, which is a shame because I really thought Danielle would be the big one.

Recurve doesn't always equal weak ya know, sure it may do with this one but we've seen many many cat-3/4s that have been instant recurvers...

Anyway 93L does seem to be struggling to disconnect from the ITCZ and so its not a total forgone conclusion this becomes Danielle.

[ravyrn]

I'm all for a recurving storm Hopefully this doesn't develop and if it does it follows the models predicted path steering clear of Bermuda. Or, given the season thus far, perhaps "shearing clear" would be more appropriate.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Friday, August 6, 2010 635 am EDT/535 am CDT
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Discussion

Elsewhere In The Tropical Atlantic:
There is still plenty more to talk about this morning, so go grab that second cup of coffee, I know I am before I continue writing.

I continue to keep an eye on an area of disturbed weather which is labeled Invest 93-L. This system is located about 800 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite imagery this morning shows that this system remains entrained inside the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and I think development will be fairly slow to occur. With that said, this system is a very good candidate to become Tropical Storm Danielle by early next week.

I have every reason to believe that Invest 93-L/Danielle will end up curving out to sea in a week to 10 days or so. My best guess is that this recurve should happen somewhere around 50 or 55 West Longitude. I think models like the GFS model is curving this system too quickly. This system poses no threat to any land masses.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 060536
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010080612, , BEST, 0, 151N, 352W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[abajan]

I wonder if this will become a threat to the Azores down the road.

[Frank2]

That polar trough is critical to the subtropical high being shunted to the northeast and making for the weakness east of 60, and considering the Fall cold fronts are arriving a few weeks early this year (2 so far this week), that pattern might hold for the remainder of the active season...

Frank

[hurricaneCW]

What cold fronts? It was in the mid 90s up here yesterday.

To rephrase a previous statement. I wasn't encouraging for a storm to impact somebody. I was just saying that I'd wish the long trackers could have went further west (60-70W) so they could intensity into strong hurricanes and then recurve out to sea. Storms like 93L are fast recurvers and nothing will come out of them in regards to their intensity because they don't have a lot of time over warm waters. I'll take a storm that goes out to sea at Colin's longitude but a much stronger storm.

[Frank2]

hurricanecw,

It's all relative - a cold front that "drops" the temp from 100 with a 65 DP to 89 with a 40 DP is a cold front, even if it's still pretty warm...

And, I understand what you are saying, but here in South Florida it does become VERY stressful for EVERYONE when a potential major hurricane is lurking east of the islands, since in the back of everyone's mind they have to start reviewing what to do and when to do it - similar to how people felt and feel working in Manhattan after 9/11 - again, very stressful to feel like one is "walking on eggs"...

Of course being an Andrew and Wilma evacuee I know first hand what that's all about, and know that at any time a major hurricane can bring serious personal disruption to a person's life (similar to any other personal crisis, in a sense), so to wish for something to "come close" is really not an option for those who live in this part of the world...

Hurricane Floyd (1999) was the best (or worst) example of what a close call can bring - the day before it veered northward, people in this area were almost panic-stricken...

In fact, that morning the traffic was so crazy that one of the familar men selling newspapers on a busy corner was brushed by the car in front of me - the worman kept going, and that afternoon I happened to be at a local business when a very tough gang-type fella in front of me was saying how nervous he was at the thought of Floyd (perhaps an Andrew survivor) so it's no easy situation for anyone...

Here's the Floyd track:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

one last thing - after Floyd's near-miss the stores and streets in this part of Broward County were empty for a few days afterwards, as if everyone was so stressed that all they could do was sit at home and recover...

Frank

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[MWatkins]

That polar trough is critical to the subtropical high being shunted to the northeast and making for the weakness east of 60, and considering the Fall cold fronts are arriving a few weeks early this year (2 so far this week), that pattern might hold for the remainder of the active season...

Frank

The atmosphere has no memory....

We shouldn't expect any one feature to persist just because it's there now. The Atlantic trough, which hadn't been in place all season so far, is a very good example that the atmosphere does not exist in a steady state.

Back in 2004 anyone could have made the case that the 2+ standard deviation trough sitting over the east coast would have been permanent since it hung around for most of July and half of August. Seriously, a hurricane hitting west Florida coming out of the Caribbean? Unheard of.

Then the trough lifted and the rest of the Cape Verde season was dominated by ridging in the western Atlantic.

To me, this falls along the same lines as a specific location being "due" for hurricane. The atmosphere is a huge non-linear system...and you can't solve a non-linear problem with linear thinking.

MW

[hurricaneCW]

Well I guess it's different for someone who never had to deal with these storms. I understand how stressful Floyd was, that track was dangerous and a very close call. Still, the forecasts and models all said it would turn before it hit Florida, so why the massive evacuations knowing that Floyd wouldn't impact Florida?

[Bocadude85]

Well I guess it's different for someone who never had to deal with these storms. I understand how stressful Floyd was, that track was dangerous and a very close call. Still, the forecasts and models all said it would turn before it hit Florida, so why the massive evacuations knowing that Floyd wouldn't impact Florida?

Because they were not certain when the turn would take place... the turn easily could have taken place over Florida instead of over the Bahamas.

[Portastorm]

OK, I think I've read enough the last few days about the discussion/debate over whether a poster can make comments appearing to "cheer on" development of a tropical system. Judging someone else's intent is a slippery slope and just because someone wants to see a fully developed tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin doesn't necessarily mean that same person is hoping for death, disaster, and widespread misery.

Anyone who has been here for a few years knows that those of us who have been through the aftermath of a hurricane usually see our appetite/interest/zeal for the "experience" to vanish. I know that is what happened to me after Rita in 2005. But we also know that many of us are in awe of tropical cyclones and their variability, just like a person can stand back and marvel at an oncoming thunderstorm and say "wow, look at that!"

We're all on this forum for different reasons. Some for safety sake, some for meteorological interest, most for both. I would just ask that everyone ask themselves the question "do I really need to post this?" before you hit that SUBMIT button, especially when it comes to self assumptions about others' intent. Thanks.

[capepoint]

Dont put all of your eggs into the models and forcasts basket. While Floyd was approching Florida, we in North Carolina were dealing with a small storm named Dennis. When Floyd was preparing to hit North Carolina, all that was forcasted was the typical storm surge hype, and minimal hurricane winds. Within hours eastern North Carolina was under record-breaking flooding just from the rain. No forcast called for this. In fact, Floyd was the reason that there are new inland flooding potential forcasts issued by NWS offices with landfalling systems. Almost every city east of RDU had flooding, some towns were totally wiped-out. It was almost 2 weeks before any traffic could move from the central and western part of the state back to the coast. People who had evacuated the coast were stranded, and people that had stayed at the coast ran out of food and fuel because nothing could get to the coast.
There have also been numerous times when storms were forcast to pass-by NC offshoer, only to jog west and brush us with TS or hurricane force conditions, as well as the ones that were forcasted to hit, and just cruised on by offshore.
So the point is, forcasts are not perfect, and those of us who live on the coast know that once a storm gets to within 150 miles, the only valid forcast is a nowcast. The only way to know whats going to happen is to check back tomorrow.