ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008060044
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010080600, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010080500, , BEST, 0, 115N, 367W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080506, , BEST, 0, 116N, 362W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 119N, 360W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080518, , BEST, 0, 123N, 358W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 127N, 358W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[RL3AO]

As always, cycloneye wins.

[Ivanhater]

This is probably the eastern Atlantic one I'm assuming...If it is, this is likely Danielle soon with great model support.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 060048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC FRI AUG 6 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100806 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100806  0000   100806  1200   100807  0000   100807  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.7N  35.8W   14.0N  36.5W   15.3N  37.8W   16.9N  39.5W
BAMD    12.7N  35.8W   13.9N  36.8W   15.3N  37.9W   17.0N  39.6W
BAMM    12.7N  35.8W   14.0N  36.6W   15.4N  37.8W   16.9N  39.5W
LBAR    12.7N  35.8W   13.8N  36.7W   15.2N  38.2W   16.6N  40.0W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          46KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100808  0000   100809  0000   100810  0000   100811  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.5N  41.6W   21.5N  46.6W   23.9N  51.0W   25.7N  53.9W
BAMD    19.0N  41.6W   22.7N  45.6W   25.2N  48.4W   26.4N  49.0W
BAMM    18.7N  41.5W   21.8N  45.9W   24.2N  49.5W   25.9N  51.3W
LBAR    18.2N  42.1W   20.7N  46.9W   22.4N  50.9W   24.3N  52.9W
SHIP        51KTS          57KTS          56KTS          52KTS
DSHP        51KTS          57KTS          56KTS          52KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.7N LONCUR =  35.8W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  11.9N LONM12 =  36.0W DIRM12 =  29DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  11.5N LONM24 =  36.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[cycloneye]

All marked as a fish.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, you want to talk about a system that's a guaranteed fish? This is the one...It's not often you can say that...This is as about as fishy as it gets.....

[lonelymike]

That's the whackiest X-Trap I've ever seen

[Ivanhater]

May be a fish..but another name off the list. I Don't see how some people can continue to complain about a non active season with 4 storms likely before August 6th..not to mention a Gulf storm prospect and the other wave behind this one all this week.

Anyway, here is a model rundown

GFS




Euro


UKMET



NOGAPS

[supercane]

Think you posted wrong map, cycloneye.

Here's the one for the invest:

[chzzdekr81]

I thought this thing was moving west? LOL. You don't see many coming right off Africa and then straight north.

[cycloneye]

And Ivan,also very important are the ACE values that any system gets being fish or not.

[supercane]

True, but with that intensity forecast will not contribute much to the total ACE.

[Macrocane]

Yeah, if this becomes Danielle I don't think people should be complaining about a slow season, let's see if the models are right and it develops I would like to watch it.

[ROCK]

fish for sure and fun to watch.....I bet we will have more than one storm to track in the coming weeks just by going by this early season activity.

[Ivanhater]

HWRF

[supercane]

GFS follows low to position NE of Islands and SE of Bermuda in open Atlantic and stalls it for several days around 25 N 50-55 W until it gets picked up by a trough. GFS also develops African wave at around 300hr mark.

[somethingfunny]

Will this year's Danielle continue the trend of fish peaking at Category 2?

(also, note the dates that those storms formed on, and please stop whining!)

[KWT]

Looks pretty obvious this will be a fish, models pretty much in total agreement of it heading WNW from where it forms and then to quickly sweep up to a recurve.

[Agua]

Fish spinner.

May they ALL be fish.

[KWT]

Agua, yeah that'd be nice, sadly I think there are signs things are shifting in terms of the Atl.pressure relationships towards the latter 1/3rd of August...