ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE BAY...AND ABOUT
90 MILES EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THERE REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[NOLA2010]

Interesting that they kept it at 60%

I thought they were going to go down.

[Cyclone1]

2010, the year the NHC toys with us like a gradeschool bully.

[mcallum177]

Disregard me previous post, apparently they fixed the radar it is no longer showing the orange, red and purple colors.

[Dean4Storms]

Sorry NHC, but this is moving NORTH now!!!

[Vortmax1]

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It has definitely left the circulation behind. Unless there's another circulation developing under the convection then this is game over.
My bet is there's something under the convection and this is going to give this a lot of time over water to further develop.

[Stormcenter]

IMO I don't think it's moving north.

[vbhoutex]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



It has definitely left the circulation behind. Unless there's another circulation developing under the convection then this is game over.
My bet is there's something under the convection and this is going to give this a lot of time over water to further develop.

SSSSHHHHH!!!!!!!!! They'll hear you!!

[Raininfyr]

Radar suggests still spinning west.

[Dean4Storms]

Well maybe NNW, but it is not moving west. It was 90 miles south of P'Cola earlier and they say now 75 miles SSE of Mobile. Go check a map and you will see that Mobile is a good 20 miles inland.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... B&loop=yes

[Dean4Storms]

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GIS data: .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

[vbhoutex]

IMO I don't think it's moving north.

I have to agree. It appears to be further N than it was earlier today, but to me it looks like it is moving west with a possible MLC under the convection and the obvious naked LLC.

[HouTXmetro]

Pooof, I don't see an LLC anymore

[Dean4Storms]

Maybe this will help you guys see it moving NNW. Go to this Sat loop and click on the Fronts tab at top. Then watch the LLC (the low darker clouds swirling) lift northwards toward the coast. It is obvious.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to me that it will move inland around the MS/AL border tonight!

[HouTXmetro]

I see it about to hit the FL/AL coast. Unless it's just an eddy.

[vbhoutex]

IMO I don't think it's moving north.

I have to agree. It appears to be further N than it was earlier today, but to me it looks like it is moving west with a possible MLC under the convection and the obvious naked LLC.

Ok, now that I have run a vis loop I have to change my tune. That is what I get for relying on radar alone. It has been moving N and in the last frames it appears to be dissipating altogether as far as the LLC is concerned. That may be a product of it getting dark though. Uh, can I have barbeque sauce on my crow?

[Nimbus]

Hard to believe it could lose that much low level energy and still survive.
If something does develop under the mid level remnant it may not last very long before it also loses its convection.

[HouTXmetro]

So is that a wrap or do we get center relocation to the MLC?

[Stormcenter]

I'm not sure about the center but the entire weather complex is moving westward.

IMO

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/radar?rada ... &img=5&c=y

IMO I don't think it's moving north.

I have to agree. It appears to be further N than it was earlier today, but to me it looks like it is moving west with a possible MLC under the convection and the obvious naked LLC.

Ok, now that I have run a vis loop I have to change my tune. That is what I get for relying on radar alone. It has been moving N and in the last frames it appears to be dissipating altogether as far as the LLC is concerned. That may be a product of it getting dark though. Uh, can I have barbeque sauce on my crow?