ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

I honestly don't ever recall such season. I mean it's like nothing has a chance
to get going even before it does.

[Frank P]

You are right Frank strange season thus far.I want to test out your front porch with a scotch

Hey Jav old buddy, As soon as we get something legit in the GOM to track heading our way, hell heading anywhere, you bring your scotch and I'll have my crown and we'll drink a few in respect of the weather gods...

[HURAKAN]

another one bites the dust ... part two!

[Steve]

>>I honestly don't ever recall such season. I mean it's like nothing has a chance to get going even before it does.

The darker side of that is how many seasons do we so so many surface low pressures spinning around the Northern Gulf? There have been 5 or so thus far including two designated systems (Alex, still in the Gulf but much farther south). So I don't know. If it was early October, I'd have to jump on the bandwagon that nothing seems to be able to get going. But since it's August 16th, I'm just wondering if it's possible that the atmosphere is showing its hand as it ripens. I guess we'll have that answer in a few weeks. What we do know is that we're clearly not dealing with a 2005 type season where there are multiple early bigger-time storms in the Northern Gulf. So we're lucking out there so far.

[lester]

another one bites the dust ... part two!

This time it stays in the dust

[cycloneye]

And still Danielle continues elusive.

[scotto]

How will this affect forecasted rainfall totals?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

>>I honestly don't ever recall such season. I mean it's like nothing has a chance to get going even before it does.

The darker side of that is how many seasons do we so so many surface low pressures spinning around the Northern Gulf? There have been 5 or so thus far including two named systems (Alex much farther south). So I don't know. If it was early October, I'd have to jump on the bandwagon that nothing seems to be able to get going. But since it's August 16th, I'm just wondering if it's possible that the atmosphere is showing its hand as it ripens. I guess we'll have that answer in a few weeks. What we do know is that we're clearly not dealing with a 2005 type season where there are multiple early bigger-time storms in the Northern Gulf. So we're lucking out there so far.

I don't know Steve. I am beginning to get the feeling like Frank and Stormcenter that this season just might not have it. Besides the NHC and NOAA scratching their heads, I am sure many others are as well including me. Sure its only the middle of August but look how many chances we have had at development in the gulf and nothing for the most part. I mean if we can't get something cranking in the middle of August when will conditions be any better. Oh well guess I can't complain too much sure don't want anything stronger than Gustav hitting here.

Anyway looks like withim the next 30 minutes we are going to get the worse ex TD5 has to offer. Check out our local radar loop...
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Dean4Storms]

The shear is the monster this year, if the shear lets up over the tropics it could get ugly fast.

[Steve]

It's certainly possible, but I'm somewhere in the 15-20" of tropical rainfall so far this year from trackable and at least formerly Invested surface features. So that's not too much of a dud season here. I guess for people who haven't had as many days of feeder bands and unclassified tropical surges of moisture, it's probably a lot more boring. To be honest though, I haven't come out one way or the other. Despite lack of intensification into anything serious (besides Alex), there are enough atmospheric signals that indicate plenty of action in the Western Atlantic Basin. It's looking doubtful that we would get a hyper-season, but I've got to wait 3-4 weeks and be into mid-September before I'd consider writing this season as a whole off. We'll know soon enough.

[srainhoutx]

It's certainly possible, but I'm somewhere in the 15-20" of tropical rainfall so far this year from trackable and at least formerly Invested surface features. So that's not too much of a dud season here. I guess for people who haven't had as many days of feeder bands and unclassified tropical surges of moisture, it's probably a lot more boring. To be honest though, I haven't come out one way or the other. Despite lack of intensification into anything serious (besides Alex), there are enough atmospheric signals that indicate plenty of action in the Western Atlantic Basin. It's looking doubtful that we would get a hyper-season, but I've got to wait 3-4 weeks and be into mid-September before I'd consider writing this season as a whole off. We'll know soon enough.

Bingo! Rough night for you folks tonight. Stay Safe!

[tailgater]

I don't think the weak LLC is heading north anymore. I'm not gonna guess which way it's going anymore I'm just gonna sit back and watch the light show and eat some popcorn.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well we can pretty much all agree this season is very strange with a bunch of coulda, whoulda, shoulda's that never happened, so far. Sure shear is the major culprit but as of today when it is non-existant there are no disturbances around to take advantage of good conditions. And of course when something does try and get its act together the shear monster raises its ugly head.

[Steve]

Not sure either tailgater. Clearly it headed off that way with the last of the visibles then it kind of got lost. There's an illusory ( ) circular feature just off the MS/AL border rotating back down again, but it looks like a trick of radar. However, one of the ways you can kind of follow bands and whatnot is with the 1-hour precip loop. For whatever reason, sometimes it will draw movement as it paints in the time progression. It's only trace amounts, but I think you can see what I'm talking about.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Also, none of the models are painting mega-precipitation anymore so hopefully nobody gets flooded this time around if there are any weak pulses tomorrow or Wednesday with whatever and wherever the remnants of TD #5 end up.

[hurricaneCW]

The shear is the monster this year, if the shear lets up over the tropics it could get ugly fast.

It's already mid August, if the shear hasn't let up now, it's not going to. It's kind of like last year where we're looking for a couple of storms (Bill, Fred) to be in the right place at the right time and actually develop into a decent system.

[breaking wind]

Considering Bonnie and Colin were as weak as they get tropical storms that probably would'nt of even been given a name 20 years ago, the slow start to this season with all the shear and dry air to date makes one wonder if this could actually turn out to be one of the slowest hurricane seasons on record. Where we thought we may make it all the way to "Otto" or beyond, it could be getting to "Igor" may be a stretch. Regardless, one cape verde monster slamming into the coast and this will go down as a bad year.

[mvtrucking]

Considering Bonnie and Colin were as weak as they get tropical storms that probably would'nt of even been given a name 20 years ago, the slow start to this season with all the shear and dry air to date makes one wonder if this could actually turn out to be one of the slowest hurricane seasons on record. Where we thought we may make it all the way to "Otto" or beyond, it could be getting to "Igor" may be a stretch. Regardless, one cape verde monster slamming into the coast and this will go down as a bad year.

Heck at this rate "Danielle" may be the stretch..

[Steve]

>>It's already mid August, if the shear hasn't let up now, it's not going to

Wrong thread to comment, but IMO until the pattern flips I think it's way too premature to say that. Again, I'm not a doomsdayer, so I don't have an agenda to defend when it comes to the season. I try to be realistic. You usually have to progress through at least 2/3 of summer in most non-hyperactive years before that happens. We're getting closer to that point. According to many of the seasonal forecasters, 1998 seems to be a particularly close analog match (or some of its characteristics). The season ended up with 14 named storms (10 hurricanes). Danielle formed that year on August 24 and was a long tracker that lasted until September. Earl formed on the 31st. We ended up in the N's that year. Incidentally, because it was 12 years ago, it's the same pool of names. But in 1998, we still had a Georges, an Ivan, a Charley, a Jeanne, a Frances and a Mitch.

[Sanibel]

The shear is the monster this year, if the shear lets up over the tropics it could get ugly fast.

Exactly. Take one look at that IR and if it stacked kaboom!

[lrak]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes


Maybe in the morning, its close to warm water, its spinning, and it looks like it wants to taste more salt.

Am I reading that chart correctly does it show a possilbe push SW on this low?