ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Ikester]

Considering Bonnie and Colin were as weak as they get tropical storms that probably would'nt of even been given a name 20 years ago, the slow start to this season with all the shear and dry air to date makes one wonder if this could actually turn out to be one of the slowest hurricane seasons on record. Where we thought we may make it all the way to "Otto" or beyond, it could be getting to "Igor" may be a stretch. Regardless, one cape verde monster slamming into the coast and this will go down as a bad year.

Heck at this rate "Danielle" may be the stretch..

It's worth noting that the Weather Research Center in Houston is forecasting only 8 storms this year due to very low solar activity. I'll also add that they made that prediction in the face of everybody else calling for upwards of 20 storms or more.

http://www.wxresearch.org/press/2010huroutlook.pdf

[Stormcenter]

Well what's left of exTD5 is showing up on radar pretty well.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[WeatherGuesser]

Dropped to 30%.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 170554
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW REMAIN DISORGANIZED
AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY SINCE IT
WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THERE IS NOW A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA OR SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO COAST TODAY. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Hurricane]

POOOF!!!!

[ikesurvivorinBCTX]

ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST! HEY HEY

[tailgater]

NHC could have easily upgraded to TD status but I don't blame them for not pulling the tigger. Easily the most organized I've seen it at the 850mb range. T-storms over the center. Then again I don't see any pressure drops.


Back to sleep now.

[Steve]

Bursting for posterity. Yeah, it's pouring outside.

[cwachal]

it seems that more storms seem to be doing better right as they make landfall or after they make landfall then before... Bonnie got a good circulation just before landfall and some good thunderstorms.... TD5 is the same way...

[mpic]

Poof? Was hoping for some more rain from this and it's poof? Finally got some healthy bands yesterday afternoon, so the crack in the ground that almost swallowed my truck sealed up and it's poof?

[wxman57]

Bones says this one is finally dead. No chance of regeneration into a TD/TS now. Just a rainmaker.

[WeatherGuesser]

NHC says stick a fork in it.


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...
HAS MOVED INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
NOW THAT THE LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE. THERE IS LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO COAST TODAY. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
NNNN

[gatorcane]

no development and no named system as I expected.

It's dead Jim!

[MGC]

Glad it did not develope....the low came inland right over my place. Surface winds here at the house are light and variable...just above the ground there is a brisk SW flow...now all I have to do is deal with the rain for the next couple of days......MGC

[thetruesms]

Good night, sweet prince

. . . again

[tailgater]

Now and for the next few days we'll be watching the rain, I need some at my house but 1 or 2 inches will do me just fine for the rest of the week. I'm sure some areas will get much more than that with the PW's in the 2.5 to 2.85 range range for most of the northern gulf coast and this thing forecast by some models to stall or creep around NE La. or Western Miss.

[StormClouds63]

The "underwhelming" 2010 season continues.

[somethingfunny]

I had high hopes for this one.

[sunnyday]

I'm glad to see that someone else feels that this is going to be a really slow season. It's the middle of August, and there is nothing out there. I wonder who will finally have the good sense to say this will not be a busy season but a very light one. My fear, however, is that after all the wolf crying, people aren't going to pay close attention, and no wonder.

[rockyman]

The 12z Canadian brings a piece of energy back into the Gulf in 5 days...possibly a small part of TD#5's energy...

Here is the Day 6 Map:

[ikesurvivorinBCTX]

Would that be TD5 part 3?