ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[vbhoutex]

So is that a wrap or do we get center relocation to the MLC?

It needs to do that if it doesn't want this to be a wrap. The convection may be able to sustain as it moves west but if this is to continue to be considered tropical it needs a new llc I would think

[HURAKAN]

I think the 40% is winning

[Stormcenter]

Nice loop here.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Steve]

Looks like either the rest of it ejected that swirl or that swirl broke off and headed off to the north. It was obvious on visible if not so much on radar. No telling what happens next. Weather still firing to the west, so I guess a few bands moving across the Gulf Coast seems reasonable. Beyond that and out through tomorrow, who knows? Last 3 non-rated systems to hit the LA Coast this year tightened up at landfall. I don't know about this though. Will a new area of lower pressure form near the surface? Will all the convection just die or stay disorganized for a day or two as the instability helps rain itself out? Will it rain 5-10"? I have no idea.

[Dean4Storms]

The buoy south of Dauphin Island is showing its winds have veered to the west, that has to mean that the LLC is to its east and very close.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

Well I just remembered how broad this circulation is, so it could even be north to NE of it!

[HURAKAN]

Looking at the latest images and time available, I think that the chance for this system to develop is about gone. 60% in the next 48 hours seems too high.

[wxman57]

The LLC is definitely accelerating northward toward the FL/AL border. Absolutely no evidence of an LLC farther south all W and NW winds in the convection. There's a very weak remnant circulation now, and that may not be present much longer.

[ConvergenceZone]

wxman57,
Hmm, guess that means we should put a fork in it?
Next............

[HURAKAN]

wxman57, are you ready to make the call?

[Frank P]

Gee, this thing has tortured me enough... wxman57 please bring out the bones and lets put this thing in the grave.. what a weird season this has been thus far.....

[MGC]

Yep, put a big fork in it....chances of development melting faster than the wicked witch.....MGC

[ConvergenceZone]

Gee, this thing has tortured me enough... wxman57 please bring out the bones and lets put this thing in the grave.. what a weird season this has been thus far.....

I agree Frank. Guess it just shows how desperate we all are to track something ...

[wxman57]

I'm tired of writing advisories on it, too. Just a pain in the butt that won't go away. Convection south of Louisiana is falling apart now. Good sign. With LLC moving north and opening up and convection to the SW falling apart, that should be about it for this remnant low.

[Javlin]

You are right Frank strange season thus far.I want to test out your front porch with a scotch

[Stormcenter]

The way things are going this season this may have been the best chance
to track anything close to home.

[lester]

I'm tired of writing advisories on it, too. Just a pain in the butt that won't go away. Convection south of Louisiana is falling apart now. Good sign. With LLC moving north and opening up and convection to the SW falling apart, that should be about it for this remnant low.

And we turn our eyes to the east..

[Stormcenter]

I bet the NHC is scratching their heads trying to figure out
whats going on this season.

[ConvergenceZone]

The way things are going this season this may have been the best chance
to track anything close to home.

I agree StormCenter. There are only going to be so many opportunities for systems to get going in the gulf....It seems like you need absolutely perfect
conditions to get something going....

[Frank P]

Gee, this thing has tortured me enough... wxman57 please bring out the bones and lets put this thing in the grave.. what a weird season this has been thus far.....

I agree Frank. Guess it just shows how desperate we all are to track something ...

Yeah CZ.. we've been tracking a system moving south from Alabama in middle August like it was coming from the Cape Verde area... you know we are pretty desperate for something..

[Stormcenter]

Why bother the way things are going this season?

I'm tired of writing advisories on it, too. Just a pain in the butt that won't go away. Convection south of Louisiana is falling apart now. Good sign. With LLC moving north and opening up and convection to the SW falling apart, that should be about it for this remnant low.

And we turn our eyes to the east..