WPAC : INVEST 93W

[wyq614]

Initial position 11N 119.5E, with anticyclone beneath it, well EC develops it as a TD.

[Typhoon10]

I dont think it will come to much, just drift across to Vietnam and dump loads of rain

[Typhoon10]

On JWTC now

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.2N 114.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH DISORGANIZED AND
FRAGMENTED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS
JUST TO THE EAST OF A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THESE ESTIMATES ARE SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[Chacor]

AT 191330Z: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.2N 114.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.9E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HUE CITY VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND
EXPANDED IN COVERAGE. A 192133Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE
BANDING CONSOLIDATING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS BROAD HOWEVER A 190228Z ASCAT IMAGE
INDICATES THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. NEARBY SHIP
REPORTS SHOW 15-22 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS DRIFTING
WESTWARD UNDER AN AREA OF WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[supercane]

Looks too close to land to do much looking at below vis and SSMI images.

[Chacor]

TCFA issued:

WTPN21 PGTW 200430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4N 109.2E TO 17.8N 105.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 200400Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 109.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-
WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.1N 112.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 109.0E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HUE CITY, VIETNAM. RECENT FIXES BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 192137Z TRMM IMAGERY INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED WHILE
REMAINING OFF-SHORE. THE LLCC IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A POLEWARD DRIFT
AND MAY REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A LONGER DURATION ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO INTENSIFY FURTHER. NEARBY SURFACE AND SHIP REPORTS VERIFY THAT
THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LLCC HAS DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS OF
THE SYSTEM AND INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY. PRESSURE HAS FALLEN SLIGHTLY
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE AREA IS UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND LIGHT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210430Z.//

[Chacor]

WWJP25 RJTD 200000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 200000.
...
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 15N 109E NW 10 KT.

[supercane]

Don't know why issued the TCFA given the forecast track. Nothing will happen now that it's inland.

[supercane]

Actually from vis and microwave seemed the system traveled up the coast and is not quite yet inland:





Still not TCFA worthy IMO, as it is too close to land for significant development.

[supercane]

TCFA cancelled.

WTPN21 PGTW 210200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200421Z AUG 10//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 200430)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 109.0E, IS NOW LOCATED OVER LAND NEAR 17.1N
106.5E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF HUE CITY, VIETNAM AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED AND
IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE.//
NNNN