WPAC: EX Tropical Storm MINDULLE

[Chacor]

The Vietnamese National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has Mindulle as a 55-knot STS at 0300 UTC.

http://www.nchmf.gov.vn/web/en-US/104/1 ... fault.aspx

[supercane]

ASCAT completely whiffed, but to be fair this is a small system very close to land.

Dvorak classification continues to improve:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/0232 UTC 18.5N 106.6E T4.5/4.5 MINDULLE
23/2032 UTC 18.1N 107.7E T4.0/4.0 MINDULLE
23/1501 UTC 17.3N 108.5E T3.5/3.5 MINDULLE

TXPN27 KNES 240305
SIMWIR

A. 06W (MINDULLE)
B. 24/0232Z
C. 18.5N
D. 106.6E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...BANDING IN VISIBLE IMAGERY WRAPS 1.4 ON LOG10 FOR DT OF 4.5
WITH AN EYE FEATURE BEGINNING TO ERODE THE HIGH CIRRUS. HIGH PARALLAX
ANGLE IS LIKELY LIMITING THE ABILITY OF THE EIR TO DETECT EYE ATTM.
MET IS 4.0. PT IS 4.5 FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
23/2155Z 17.9N 107.7E AMSU
24/0011Z 18.4N 107.2E SSMIS

...GALLINA

[Typhoon Hunter]

JTWC sticking one at JMA

THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
RJTD REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS BUT WAS ASSESSED AS TOO LOW CONSIDERING
THE NEAR EYE AND WELL-ORGANIZED MICROWAVE SIGNATURE.

[Chacor]

TCNA21 RJTD 240600
CCAA 24060 47644 MINDULLE(1005) 07186 11062 12234 230// 93012=

For whatever reason, JMA is holding at T3.0.

[StormingB81]

Some are calling it a Typhoon. Can we actually have another typhoon. Sounds odd to say specially after how last year was.

[Chacor]

This is getting ridiculous now; Mindulle is clearly stronger than 45 knots.

WTPQ20 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1005 MINDULLE (1005)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 18.6N 106.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 20.3N 105.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 260600UTC 20.9N 104.1E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Chacor]

Looks like landfall might have occurred.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Some are calling it a Typhoon. Can we actually have another typhoon. Sounds odd to say specially after how last year was.

I don't quite understand what you mean? It's only 24th August, there will be plenty more typhoons this year.

I agree with Chacor, 45kts is just crazy...

[KWT]

I just had a look at the image and 45kts was the offical landfall?

What a mentally low estimate...I'd easily go to 65kts with this one given the eye presentation that emerged!

[StormingB81]

Some are calling it a Typhoon. Can we actually have another typhoon. Sounds odd to say specially after how last year was.

I don't quite understand what you mean? It's only 24th August, there will be plenty more typhoons this year.

I agree with Chacor, 45kts is just crazy...

I am just saying how There hasnt been much Typhooon activity. Saying how this is like the only 2nd Typhoon this year. and it is almost september.

[Typhoon Hunter]

I just had a look at the image and 45kts was the offical landfall?

What a mentally low estimate...I'd easily go to 65kts with this one given the eye presentation that emerged!

I agree! I really hope this is upgraded to at least 55kts in Best Track. No idea what JMA were on about with this one. At least the Vietnam met service had it at 55kts if I'm not mistaken.

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 18.6N 106.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 106.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.6N 104.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.0N 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 105.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO
WARM UP INDICATING WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH VIETNAM'S
LANDMASS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A
240532Z 1-KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A 15-NM EYE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD RANGING FROM 50 TO 60 KNOTS. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA.
MINDULLE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MAKES LANDFALL BY TAU
06, THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN

[supercane]

Agree with those who said Mindulle has made landfall.

Last vis:


Latest IR:


Very recent microwave shows degraded appearance compared to earlier:


But Dvorak classification stayed the same, at least from SSD:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/0832 UTC 18.9N 105.7E T4.5/4.5 MINDULLE
24/0232 UTC 18.5N 106.6E T4.5/4.5 MINDULLE
23/2032 UTC 18.1N 107.7E T4.0/4.0 MINDULLE

TXPN27 KNES 240905
SIMWIR

A. 06W (MINDULLE)
B. 24/0832Z
C. 18.9N
D. 105.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24XHRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU
H. REMARKS...LIKELY LAST IMAGE BEFORE EYE OF MINDULLE IS FULLY ASHORE
IN VIETNAM...STILL CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN LG FOR DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT
AGREE.FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
24/0656Z 19.0N 106.1E AMSU

...GALLINA

Edited to fix images

[Chacor]

Yes, Vietnam had it at 55 kt. One of the biggest busts I've seen the JMA make.

[supercane]

JMA stubborn at 45kt to the end:

WTPQ20 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1005 MINDULLE (1005)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 18.9N 105.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 20.5N 104.3E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[KWT]

I just had a look at the image and 45kts was the offical landfall?

What a mentally low estimate...I'd easily go to 65kts with this one given the eye presentation that emerged!

I agree! I really hope this is upgraded to at least 55kts in Best Track. No idea what JMA were on about with this one. At least the Vietnam met service had it at 55kts if I'm not mistaken.

IMO even 55kts is too low, you don't normally get an eye develop in the deep tropics at 55kts, at least not it the Vis imagery anyway. I'd say 65-70kts at its peak was probably a better call though it may have weakened a smidge into landfall.

[Chacor]

65-70 kt might be reasonable for 1-minute winds. Even the JTWC never went that high. 55 kt seems a fair call for 10-minute.

[supercane]

Don't like how JTWC stops writing advisories right after a system makes landfall. Here's the 15Z:

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 19.0N 105.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 105.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.6N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.1N 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 105.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 06W HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS
NOW ENCOUNTERING RUGGED TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

[Cookie]

137 fisherman missing

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-2 ... aches.html

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1005 MINDULLE (1005)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 19.3N 104.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 21.0N 102.9E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =