WPAC: EX Tropical Storm MINDULLE

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1005 MINDULLE (1005)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 16.9N 108.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 18.8N 106.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 251200UTC 20.5N 104.0E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[HURAKAN]

latest

[CrazyC83]

Looks fairly organized but shallow. I would guess 55 kt.

[KWT]

Yeah to be fair it does look decent organisational wise there though as you say Crazy the convection isn't mega deep, so yeah I'd go with 55kts as well fwiw.

[CrazyC83]

23/2032 UTC 18.1N 107.7E T4.0/4.0 MINDULLE

[supercane]

Catching up on earlier advisories:

WTPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 108.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 108.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.2N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.1N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.5N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.8N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 108.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. A 231805Z AMSU 89H GHZ IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS THE RECENT
IMPROVING TREND WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT. THIS IMAGE
ANCHORS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE 23/12Z
POSITION WAS SHIFTED 35 NM NORTHEAST OF THE 23/12Z WARNING POSITION
BASED ON A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN A 231035Z
CORIOLIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY BUT IS PARALLEL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS AND GFDN INDICATING A MORE REALISTIC
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN LINE WITH UPPER AIR
DATA SHOWING DEEP, STRONG EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. BASED
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY, TS 06W HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 60-65 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER
VIETNAM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 231500Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 231137Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE ENHANCED
CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM ALL
QUADRANTS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AND IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ENHANCED
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>30 DEGREES C).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. WHILE NOT REFLECTING A CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, THE PEAK
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON AN IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (INCREASED OUTFLOW AND DECREASED VWS) ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FILLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF TS 06W
THAT HAD BEEN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER JAPAN. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, TS
06W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL VIETNAM.
AFTER TAU 36, MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST OF VIETNAM SHOULD
DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 72 TS
MINDULLE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NOGAPS AND GFDN, WHICH FORECAST A WEAKNENING OF THE STEERING RIDGE
AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS, EGRR, ECMWF, JGSM, AND GFS WHICH FAVOR A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.//
NNNN

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1005 MINDULLE (1005)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 18.0N 107.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 19.7N 105.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 260000UTC 20.9N 104.0E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[StormingB81]

Hey supercane and KWT I know it is on a different topic but what do you think of that new invest?

[supercane]

Mindulle 3 ways:

Early vis:


Attempting to see?


Poor resolution on the swath's edge for microwave:

[supercane]

JTWC up to 60 kt on 03Z advisory:

014
WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 18.0N 107.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 107.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.1N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.7N 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.0N 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 106.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z,
242100Z AND 250300Z.//

[supercane]

675
WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
135 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVERALL, IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AFTER A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF
STRENGTHENING AND A DEVELOPING EYE. A 232155Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC WITH A CLEAR MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE; THE 85 GHZ IMAGERY, HOWEVER, SHOWS AN OBLONG MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
THIS LACK OF SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND THE NEGLIGIBLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
RJTD REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS BUT WAS ASSESSED AS TOO LOW CONSIDERING
THE NEAR EYE AND WELL-ORGANIZED MICROWAVE SIGNATURE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASON ALTHOUGH TRACK SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY.
B. TS 06W HAS ACCELERATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED OVER
SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 36 WITH A TIGHT CLUSTER OF MODELS TO INCLUDE NOGAPS, GFDN,
JGSM, UKMO, ECMWF AND WBAR SUPPORTING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.
AFTER TAU 36, THE MODELS DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS RAPIDLY
OVER VIETNAM AND THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO TRACK THE REMNANTS. THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED NEAR 23/18-21Z AND IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN 55-60 KNOT INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL THEN SHOULD
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36.//

[supercane]

So close to being a typhoon:


BTW, big disparity between JTWC at 60kt versus JMA at 45kt.

[Macrocane]

That difference in intensity happens because the JTWC uses 1 minute sustained winds and the JMA that's why I prefer JTWC becasue I understand better their esmitates.

[Chacor]

Even then, with that presentation, I'd expect 50-55 kt from JMA. 45 kt 10-min converts to about 50 kt 1-min (roughly 1.14 times).

[supercane]

Not that simple. The typical 12% conversion between 10- and 1-minute sustained winds would give a JMA estimate of 50.4 kt, still nearly 10 kt below the JTWC estimate. (The estimated 10-min wind woudl be lower if you follow the these WMO guidelines [document p. 5, Acrobat p. 14]). Also, it is not always the case that JTWC would be higher; for example, JMA's estimates for Dianmu were mostly higher throughout that storm's lifetime. In fact, JMA may estimate weaker storms as stronger than JTWC. From this HKO writeup:

Another difference is that RSMC-Tokyo uses a Dvorak technique that
was modified according to the study of Takemura and Osano [1989] to assess
tropical cyclone intensity. This modified technique causes tropical cyclones
below typhoon strength to be assessed as stronger than what the traditional
Dvorak technique would give, and causes intense typhoons to be assessed as
weaker.

[Chacor]

I've posted that Dvorak chart somewhere before in the asking questions forum.

[Chacor]

JMA holding steady at 45 knots.

WTPQ20 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1005 MINDULLE (1005)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 18.5N 106.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 20.1N 105.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 260000UTC 20.9N 104.0E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[CrazyC83]

That looks to be a good 60-65 kt storm there.

[supercane]

3-hr loop of Mindulle from NRL:

[Chacor]

I would be really, really surprised if JMA doesn't up to at least 55 knots at its next advisory.