WPAC: EX Tropical Storm MINDULLE

[Typhoon10]

HKO now have as TD and map accordingly.

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_pos.htm

[supercane]

Dvorak T numbers back up per SSD:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/0232 UTC 16.3N 114.9E T1.5/1.5 94W
21/2032 UTC 16.3N 115.9E T1.0/1.5 94W

TXPN27 KNES 220319
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)
B. 22/0232Z
C. 16.3N
D. 114.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/12HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5.
MET AND PT = 1.5. FT BASED ON DT.

NIL


...KIBLER

[supercane]

25kt winds on latest ASCAT pass:

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZAUG2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1N
116.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 115.2E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
BEGINING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
HAS SHOWED SIGNS OF IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION, A 212256Z 91H SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL OVER LUZON IS BEGINING TO FILL, ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED
VENTING, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW STILL REMAINS RESTRICTED
BY THIS TUTT CELL. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
GOOD. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 211230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[supercane]

HKO now have as TD and map accordingly.

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_pos.htm

Didn't find anything at that link, but looked here for the Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping:

Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping

Bulletin issued at 13:00 HKT 22/Aug/2010


Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 220300 UTC, the tropical depression over the northern part of South China Sea with central pressure 998 hectopascals was centred within 90 nautical miles of one six point three degrees north (16.3 N) one one four point nine degrees east (114.9 E) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 7 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 25 knots.

Radius of over 2 metre waves 150 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 230300 UTC
One seven point two degrees north (17.2 N)
One one two point one degrees east (112.1 E)
Maximum winds 35 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 240300 UTC
One nine point two degrees north (19.2 N)
One zero eight point nine degrees east (108.9 E)
Maximum winds 45 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 250300 UTC
Two zero point one degrees north (20.1 N)
One zero six point five degrees east (106.5 E)
Maximum winds 40 knots.

[supercane]

FYI, next name is Mindulle, a "Small and yellow flower (Dandelion) which blooms in the field when spring comes, almost in the same time, which represents simple and gentle minds of Korean women."

Source: HKO
Storm names: http://www.hko.gov.hk/informtc/sound/tcname2008e.htm Meanings and pronunciations: http://www.hko.gov.hk/informtc/sound/tc_pronunciatione.htm

[StormingB81]

94w is off the NRL site.

[Chacor]

Still on there for me.

[StormingB81]

Do it was playing a trick on me..It is still there my bad I dont know what happends when I went on there it wasnt there but now I see it

[StormingB81]

Everyone has it a Tropical Depression now.

[dexterlabio]

Now TD 06W from JTWC.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 15.7N 114.0E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 16.5N 110.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[KWT]

I suspect we will see a low end TS out of this but we will see, anything to help this rather stunted season get going in the WPAC!

[cycloneye]

220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 16.0N 114.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 114.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.2N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.9N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 17.8N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.9N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.0N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.2N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.7N 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 113.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER. A 220132Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. A 220537Z 37 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND REVEALS THAT A MAJORITY OF
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT PASS AND A SHIP OBSERVATION 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
SHOWING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL OVER
LUZON IS BEGINING TO FILL, ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED VENTING, HOWEVER
POLEWARD OUTFLOW STILL REMAINS RESTRICTED BY THIS TUTT CELL. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 211221Z AUG
10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 211230 ) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN

[supercane]

Last visible still suggested shear:


But producing a lot of convection on SW quadrant:


And improved microwave appearance:

[supercane]

JMA 12Z advisory:

WTPQ20 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 16.0N 112.8E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 17.1N 109.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 15.9N 113.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 113.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.2N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.0N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.1N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.9N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.8N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.8N 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.2N 103.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 113.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

TPPN11 PGTW 221217

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SOUTH CHINA SEA)

B. 22/1132Z

C. 15.9N

D. 113.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPPED A .40 ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. BROKE
SIX HOURLY CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/0903Z 16.0N 113.6E AMSU
22/0937Z 16.0N 113.8E SSMI
22/1058Z 15.9N 113.7E AMSU


GATES

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 16.0N 112.5E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 231500UTC 17.5N 109.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =