EPAC: EX Tropical Depression EIGHT-E

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 192340
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 19 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER
COOLER WATER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[supercane]

Not the most ideal conditions with some easterly shear, but looks as close as anything else in the world to being our next tropical cyclone. Map from UW-CIMSS TCTrak with sat, obs, shear overlays:

[Chacor]

Up to 40% from NHC.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER WATER. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued.

WTPN21 PHNC 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.6N 106.7W TO 20.0N 111.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 107.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.3W,
APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. RECENT
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST THAT HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 200446Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 20 KT WINDS
COVERING ALL QUADRANTS. A 200145Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE LLCC. THE AREA EXISTS UNDER
AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF 20N ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200900Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

06Z SHIPS doesn't like it:

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    25    24    24    23    23    20   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LAND       25    25    24    24    23    23    20   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    25    24    23    22    19    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS


[Chacor]

But NHC does:
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES
WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep922010_ep082010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008201146
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

TD 8-E at 8 AM PDT.

EP, 08, 2010082006, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1075W, 30, 1004, TD

[Chacor]

WTPZ23 KNHC 201228
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010
1230 UTC FRI AUG 20 2010

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.8W AT 20/1230Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.8W AT 20/1230Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.3N 108.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 15SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 109.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.4N 111.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.6N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 107.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Chacor]

WTPZ33 KNHC 201230
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010
530 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC...MOVING AWAY FROM
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 107.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Chacor]

WTPZ43 KNHC 201237
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010
530 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0445 UTC SUGGEST
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST
OF MANZANILLO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS. THE
MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...
CONSISTENT WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR ANALYZED BY SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS A VERY NARROW WINDOW OF TIME IN WHICH TO
STRENGTHEN...AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO SUB 27-C WATERS IN 36 TO 48
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SHEAR OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE UNTIL IT REACHES THE COOLER
WATER. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A
LITTLE STRENGTHENING TODAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING TO A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN ABOUT
3 DAYS.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 320/6. THE
DEPRESSION IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTHERN MEXICO. ALL OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEPRESSION WILL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND THAT TIME A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIES TO THE RIGHT OF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF
THE SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1230Z 18.7N 107.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 19.3N 108.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 109.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 20.4N 111.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 20.6N 112.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Macrocane]

This is a little surprise, I went to bed with a disturbance that had 20% chance of development and now wake up with a TD, that was fast.

[HURAKAN]

our friend "Mr. Shear" appears to be lending a helping hand!

[lester]

Wow didn't see that coming! Has a short life though

[KWT]

Yeah there is shear but actually its not looking too bad relative to what the conditions are...

Still the ECM totally nailed this one with the weak development of a low in this region at this time a good 8-10 days ago.

[Chacor]

WTPZ43 KNHC 201433
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010

THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DO NOT SHOW THE DEPRESSION INTENSIFYING...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CYCLONE COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE VERTICAL
SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT...AND BY 36 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL
BE MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GRADUAL WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND
DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OR 320
DEGREES...AT 6 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...AS THE
CYCLONE BECOMES SHALLOW...A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION...AND LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 19.1N 107.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 19.8N 108.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 20.4N 110.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 20.7N 111.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 20.8N 112.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[KWT]

Not expecting a TS now and just expect it to hold steady where it is...ah well another weak system, possibly could get a brief TS still from this.

[lester]

WTPZ33 KNHC 202032
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 109.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 202033
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME MORE EXPOSED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS
THE 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN PULSING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT REMAIN RATHER SHAPELESS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM SAB.

THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO REMAIN 20 KT OR HIGHER OVER
THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING
OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C BY 36 HOURS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN
36 TO 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 3 DAYS.

THE EXPOSED CENTER HAS BEEN EASIER TO FOLLOW ON GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY...AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT
OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS 305/08. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL STEER THE
CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. BY SUNDAY...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A SHALLOW
FEATURE AND WILL TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS IT IS STEERED BY THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND LIES NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 19.6N 109.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 20.1N 109.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 20.4N 111.1W 25 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 20.7N 112.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 22/1800Z 20.7N 113.1W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

Thank you for playing!

[KWT]

Thats quite a cool looking LLC thats for sure Hurakan!