artist wrote:is it possible she is going through erc? And if so, once she is through with that, won't she probably intensify again?
From latest discussion:
THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATIONS AND A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM THE NRL TROPICAL CYCLONE WEBSITE INDICATE
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE INNER EYEWALL STRUCTURE OF
DANIELLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. THE OUTER
CONCENTRIC RING LOCATED ABOUT 60 NMI FROM THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE...HOWEVER...IS WELL DEFINED AND SYMMETRIC...AND APPEARS TO
BE CLOSE TO COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
CONSEQUENTLY...THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS TRACK OVER
COOLER WATER. IT IS WORTH NOTING...HOWEVER...THAT THE SHIPS MODEL
PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS
DECREASED FROM 14 TO 4 PERCENT...SUGGESTING A SMALL CHANCE OF THIS
SCENARIO COMING TO FRUITION.