ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[RL3AO]

Looks like a quick recurve East of Bermuda on the 00z GFS.

thats better if we want to get earl further west.

Who does want Earl to get further west?

Its storm2k. People want major hurricanes hitting the US. Its "exciting".

[Ivanhater]

Taken care of..back on topic...

[TheDreamTraveler]

This is interesting. All of the models here, except the GFS, go West.

[Hurricaneman]

If you look at the gfs, the ridge almost closes the weakness, but fails and takes this out as a fish storm, but there is a possibility that a farther west solution could happen if the weakness closes shop but probably no farther west than 70w at best

[supercane]

TheDreamTraveler, that appears to be from the earlier 18Z run interpolated to the advisory time. Those represent the "early" models. Also, there are many more models. Here's a plot from CSU showing most of the models with the exception of the ECMWF (which is not free):

[somethingfunny]

TheDreamTraveler, that appears to be from the earlier 18Z run interpolated to the advisory time. Those represent the "early" models. Also, there are many more models. Here's a plot from CSU showing most of the models with the exception of the ECMWF (which is not free):

It looks like a bouquet of flowers!!!!

[supercane]

Danielle model tracks from easternuswx.com shows mostly recurve, but NOGAPS and GFDL still want to turn back westward:

GFS ensemble members:

[KWT]

Models have trended to the right which would be good news for Bermuda, think the odds of a bendback a pretty low still from the looks of things.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 261258
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1258 UTC THU AUG 26 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE (AL062010) 20100826 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100826  1200   100827  0000   100827  1200   100828  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.0N  55.4W   25.1N  56.9W   26.2N  58.6W   27.7N  60.1W
BAMD    24.0N  55.4W   25.6N  56.9W   27.1N  58.6W   28.7N  60.3W
BAMM    24.0N  55.4W   25.4N  56.9W   26.6N  58.7W   28.1N  60.4W
LBAR    24.0N  55.4W   25.7N  56.8W   26.9N  58.3W   28.5N  59.6W
SHIP        90KTS          95KTS          99KTS         101KTS
DSHP        90KTS          95KTS          99KTS         101KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100828  1200   100829  1200   100830  1200   100831  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.2N  61.6W   31.3N  62.3W   33.1N  58.5W   37.7N  53.1W
BAMD    30.5N  61.4W   35.1N  59.4W   38.5N  56.2W   40.6N  51.1W
BAMM    29.7N  61.5W   32.8N  60.7W   35.2N  57.5W   38.4N  52.8W
LBAR    30.2N  60.2W   34.1N  57.4W   38.3N  45.2W   40.9N  26.9W
SHIP       103KTS          96KTS          80KTS          59KTS
DSHP       103KTS          96KTS          80KTS          59KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  24.0N LONCUR =  55.4W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  22.0N LONM12 =  53.6W DIRM12 = 327DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  19.3N LONM24 =  51.5W
WNDCUR =   90KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   85KT
CENPRS =  970MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  150NM RD34SE =  105NM RD34SW =   90NM RD34NW = 120NM
 


[terrapintransit]

Wow...finally the models agree! I think it's safe to say goodbye to Danielle now...

[KWT]

Looks like the models now agree the threat to Bermuda is reducing again and note the further north-east this one goes in the short term the greater the risk Earl slips on through.

Danielle will probably help cause a heatwave of some sorts in the UK which is neat.

[CrazyC83]

The Azores might have something to really worry about though, since an early turn east keeps Danielle in the Gulf Stream for a long time and could delay transition to extratropical...a more easterly track puts them into the line of fire...

[AdamFirst]

Yeah the proof is in the pudding. Bermuda's gonna luck out.

Who knows what Earl is going to do though.

[KWT]

Yeah Crazy I did say that yesterday, it does need to be watched IMO esp if the bend to the east is strong enough.

[CrazyC83]

There is a lot of shear at the mid-levels after the easterly turn, but it seems to be in the same direction so it may not hurt as much. Upper-level shear is remarkably low in the area around 38N 50W, and SST's are 25-27C which should hold its intensity at least. I don't think Danielle is done after the recurve...

[supercane]

Danielle late dynamic guidance summary from 12Z shows all recurve except NOGAPS:

[KWT]

Yeah a couple of models still are trying to bend it back to the west but overall most models now are pretty much in total agreement on a recurve and we can see that its also going to stay decently east of Bermuda afterall.

[terrapintransit]

All the models will probably move back to the west tonight...LOL

Danielle late dynamic guidance summary from




12Z shows all recurve except NOGAPS:

[cpdaman]

i would not declare bermuda out of the woods yet.....most likely absolutely.....but .....models handle upper troughs poorly and let's see if tonite danielle bends back more to the WNW and gains some longitude.....also should she move more W than N....she will be at a slightly lower latitude when the trough is supposed to scoop her up.....as long as some ensembles have bermuda in their sights and it is close ....it's not all clear in bermuda

[dixiebreeze]

Going to be some good surfing around Bermuda and the US east coast this weekend. Unclear how close Danielle will get to Bermuda, but I'll bet everyone there is watching very closely.