ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[Chacor]

06Z SHIPS does quite a bit with 95L:

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TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    29    32    35    45    56    69    81    89    91    92    92
V (KT) LAND       25    27    29    32    35    45    56    69    81    89    91    92    92
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    29    31    36    43    51    61    73    85    92    90


Brings it to a 92 knot hurricane in 5 days.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 201125
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1125 UTC FRI AUG 20 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100820 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100820  0600   100820  1800   100821  0600   100821  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.0N  25.3W   11.5N  26.5W   11.8N  28.2W   12.1N  30.2W
BAMD    11.0N  25.3W   11.4N  26.5W   12.0N  28.1W   12.6N  30.2W
BAMM    11.0N  25.3W   11.5N  26.4W   11.9N  28.1W   12.4N  30.2W
LBAR    11.0N  25.3W   11.4N  26.9W   12.3N  29.1W   13.2N  31.9W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          45KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100822  0600   100823  0600   100824  0600   100825  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.5N  32.3W   13.9N  37.2W   16.8N  44.3W   19.1N  50.9W
BAMD    13.1N  32.8W   14.0N  38.8W   15.8N  44.5W   19.7N  49.0W
BAMM    12.8N  32.5W   14.0N  37.9W   16.4N  44.5W   19.3N  50.1W
LBAR    14.1N  35.1W   15.2N  42.3W   14.7N  48.7W   19.2N  49.5W
SHIP        56KTS          81KTS          91KTS          92KTS
DSHP        56KTS          81KTS          91KTS          92KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.0N LONCUR =  25.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  11.0N LONM12 =  24.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  11.0N LONM24 =  22.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[HurrMark]

Looks like a big old fish to me.

This year might be similar to 2000-2001 in that we may get a relatively high number of storms but troughs keep most of them away from land.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

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WHXX01 KWBC 201254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC FRI AUG 20 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100820 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100820  1200   100821  0000   100821  1200   100822  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.0N  26.0W   11.4N  27.2W   11.7N  29.0W   12.1N  30.9W
BAMD    11.0N  26.0W   11.4N  27.4W   11.9N  29.2W   12.4N  31.4W
BAMM    11.0N  26.0W   11.5N  27.2W   11.9N  29.0W   12.4N  31.1W
LBAR    11.0N  26.0W   11.6N  27.7W   12.4N  30.1W   13.4N  33.0W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          45KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100822  1200   100823  1200   100824  1200   100825  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.6N  32.8W   15.1N  38.4W   17.9N  46.3W   19.3N  52.4W
BAMD    12.9N  34.0W   13.9N  39.6W   16.4N  44.7W   21.2N  48.6W
BAMM    12.8N  33.4W   14.6N  39.0W   17.2N  45.7W   20.0N  50.8W
LBAR    14.3N  36.5W   15.1N  43.7W   14.9N  49.6W   20.3N  50.5W
SHIP        58KTS          84KTS          92KTS          90KTS
DSHP        58KTS          84KTS          92KTS          90KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.0N LONCUR =  26.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  11.0N LONM12 =  24.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  11.0N LONM24 =  23.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  100NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[CrazyC83]

Seems reasonable, if not even conservative. I can certainly see this becoming a Cat 3 or a Cat 4 in the next few days.

[hurricaneCW]

I think the models are too far east with re curvature though. I doubt it recurves east of 55W despite the troughiness in the Atlantic.

[sandyb]

i hope it does not recurve for sometime would be nice to get almost to the east coast then make that turn make it exciting anyway

[KWT]

ECM ensembles agree with you HCW, they suggest a possible Bermuda threat and I'd concur with that view as well...though the operational models are in total agreement of something between 55-60W.

[GTStorm]

Sandyb, at least you're honest....

[KWT]

This is starting rather far south, we are very lucky to be in a troughy pattern otherwise this would be a huge threat down the line, as it is the models are in amazing agreement, I'm not sure I've seen them be in such superb agreement very often before!

[gatorcane]

I agree KWT, we have amazing model agreement and though it is forming at a low lattitude, I feel comfortable it is going to get scooped up just like Colin did...could even take the same path as Colin..hopefully head out into the Atlantic graveyard where most storms tend to end up.

Models are forecasting a very large and powerful system out of this though...I think we will feel very fortunate that trough is there to protect those in the Caribbean and U.S....hopefully Bermuda.

[hurricaneCW]

We may be fortunate with this system but the season has several weeks to go. Long range models build up the heights across the Atlantic and increase the chances of storm advancing further west. It's important to keep in mind that even in a troughy pattern, occasionally storms sneak through.

[MWatkins]

Interesting KWT...but agreement doesn't always imply accuracy

I am not convinced this one is a goner yet. Last night's Euro was a bit more interesting than the GFS...not developing this much until it starts to bend NW.

The Euro leaves more mid-level ridging in place in the western Atlantic...

0Z GFS: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168m.gif

Euro at 168 hrs (same verify time)

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0082000!!/

So by 240 hours it traps the model cyclone...it's still sitting at 30/60 instead of flying around the east edge of the ridge like the GFS displays.

I could totally see that happening. GFS overstates the ridge...cyclone is south of the model progs...and we have a big slow down/stall scenario.

I think that's thing to watch for...what's the trend in the mid-level ridging as we get into next week. With all of this contenential heat around, it's hard to believe the ridge is just going to fold as expansively as portrayed.

Gotta love the tropics.

MW

[KWT]

The problem is Mike we've already seen several systems recurve more or less near where the models take 95L, a sheared TS and a weak wave both recurved between 55-65W and if they recurved, a full blown major hurricane will almost certainly get taken up by even a fairly weak trough I'd imagine.

I suspect we will see a stair-step action occur, I don't think it just scoops up at the first time of asking like the GFS seems to suggest, I can certainly see it taking a couple of troughs and thats why I'm thinking a Bermuda hit is quite likely.

The first trough that lifts 95L up is now at just 72-96hrs out...and no way the models bust when they are in total agreement at this stage...

[gatorcane]

Interesting KWT...but agreement doesn't always imply accuracy

I am not convinced this one is a goner yet. Last night's Euro was a bit more interesting than the GFS...not developing this much until it starts to bend NW.

The Euro leaves more mid-level ridging in place in the western Atlantic...

0Z GFS: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168m.gif

Euro at 168 hrs (same verify time)

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0082000!!/

So by 240 hours it traps the model cyclone...it's still sitting at 30/60 instead of flying around the east edge of the ridge like the GFS displays.

I could totally see that happening. GFS overstates the ridge...cyclone is south of the model progs...and we have a big slow down/stall scenario.

I think that's thing to watch for...what's the trend in the mid-level ridging as we get into next week. With all of this contenential heat around, it's hard to believe the ridge is just going to fold as expansively as portrayed.

Gotta love the tropics.

MW

Well after the series of troughs, the GFS is showing a long-wave pattern change. Nice ridging at 336 hours but by then Danielle should have recurved....

[KWT]

Yeah I'd be surprised if the likely pattern for 95L will repeat too often to that extreme, still there is a weakness there to be fair and a pretty large upper trough

Anyway any bets on what the GFDL does, bet it recurves at 45-50W!

[ronjon]

I agree KWT, we have amazing model agreement and though it is forming at a low lattitude, I feel comfortable it is going to get scooped up just like Colin did...could even take the same path as Colin..hopefully head out into the Atlantic graveyard where most storms tend to end up.

Models are forecasting a very large and powerful system out of this though...I think we will feel very fortunate that trough is there to protect those in the Caribbean and U.S....hopefully Bermuda.

Not to throw cold water on you guys since you're both knowledgeable posters, but the latest 00Z ECM run puts this storm at roughly 28N-60W on the operational run (where's it grinding to a halt) and the ECM ensemble run where it's at 29N-63W in a similar situation with high pressure ridging to its north at 10 days! While it may be likely that it does eventually recurve into the open Atlantic, that's an awful long time out to close the book on an Atlantic re-curve scenario. There are already some hints in the long range CMC, ECM, and GFS of the jet lifting north and high pressure building back into the eastern Atlantic.

[floridasun78]

let NOT call this fish guys and ladys YET things could chance next few runs i think you smarter and saying fish this only first model runs

[hurricaneCW]

As of now I would say 70% chance it recurves at or east of 60W, 25% chance it recurves between 60-70W or a Bermuda effect and about a 5% or less chance of it going west of 70W, potentially threatening the east coast. Chances of an U.S. east coast landfall, less than 2%.

[CrazyC83]

If relatively weak Colin was able to recurve, a major hurricane Danielle would easily go into that hole, correct? Although it could stay far enough south and miss the trough completely...