EPAC: Ex-Tropical Depression FRANK

[cycloneye]

[Kingarabian]

Very nice!

[supercane]

Evening vis looks robust:


Small core on microwave:

[Chacor]

EP, 09, 2010082600, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1070W, 70, 984, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 0, 15, 1008, 140, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FRANK, D,

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 260250
TCDEP4
HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2010

THE BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE THAT BRIEFLY APPEARED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DISAPPEARED BENEATH THE CIRRUS CANOPY.
THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN EYE AND HAS
BEEN HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION AND INITIAL MOTION OF THE
HURRICANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...BASED ON
A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM
UW/CIMSS. THE SHEAR HAS OBVIOUSLY WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS FRANK REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS LITTLE...IF ANY...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. AFTER 36
HOURS...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
COOLER SSTS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12 KT. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
IN 2-3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD AS
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW RECURVATURE TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA
WHILE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTH OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER SOLUTION.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON ASCAT DATA THAT
ARRIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 17.2N 107.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 17.6N 109.2W 75 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 18.1N 111.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 18.5N 112.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 19.1N 113.4W 60 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 20.3N 114.3W 50 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 21.3N 114.3W 35 KT
120HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 114.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

EP, 09, 2010082612, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1090W, 75, 981, HU

75 knots at 8 am pdt

[KWT]

Yeah thats a good presentation there, eyewall is closed off but it does look a little elongated to be honest but its decent enough right now!

[cycloneye]

This should be the last hurrah before it reaches cooler waters.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 261437
TCDEP4
HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2010

A 0907 UTC TRMM OVERPASS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE ON BOTH THE
37 AND 85 GHZ CHANNELS...THOUGH THIS FEATURE IS NOT APPARENT IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE
INCREASED TO 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE 70-75 KT
RANGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT...NEAR THE LOWER END OF
THE ESTIMATES...DUE TO THE ELONGATED CLOUD PATTERN. THE HURRICANE
REGIONAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT OR
GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
AN INCREASE IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE 26 DEGREE C SST ISOTHERM IN 36-48 HOURS AND A MORE STEADY
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND THAT TIME. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE
TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AND IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
LGEM INTENSITY MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10...A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THEREAFTER...A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES NEAR THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS
OTHERWISE SIMILAR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 17.4N 109.3W 75 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 17.8N 110.8W 75 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 18.2N 112.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 18.9N 113.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 19.6N 113.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 21.0N 114.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 31/1200Z 23.0N 114.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[supercane]

Not the best looking hurricane ever, with no eye visible on IR in the face of NE shear:


But still maintaining an eye on microwave:

[supercane]

Tight little core:

[cycloneye]

MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
200 PM PDT THU AUG 26 2010

FRANK APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE TODAY. AN EYE HAS
OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS
EARLIER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED
ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED A BIT TO 80 KT.

THE HURRICANE HAS RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...290/9...AND
NOW LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH IS FORECAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH STRENGTHENS NEAR THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST. THE NHC
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION
AND POSITION...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

NONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND IN
FACT...MOST HAVE A GRADUAL WEAKENING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN 15-20 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOWN BY THE
SHIPS MODEL AND COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. FRANK IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26 DEGREES C IN ABOUT 36
HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...
SHOULD CAUSE A MORE RAPID WEAKENING BEYOND THAT TIME AND IS
REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 18.1N 110.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 111.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 19.0N 112.9W 70 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 19.6N 113.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 20.3N 114.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 21.5N 114.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 22.5N 114.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 31/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[lester]

EP, 09, 2010082700, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1109W, 80, 978, HU

Stays the same

[supercane]

Eye feature gone from microwave imagery:

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 PM PDT THU AUG 26 2010

FRANK HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY. THE EYE SEEN EARLIER IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AS THE SUN
SET AND A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED THAT THE
EYE HAS OPENED UP. BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS FRANK MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND
INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FRANK HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/9. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE HURRICANE
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THERE IS AN
EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND AS
SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONGER CYCLONE THAT MOVES
FARTHER NORTHWARD. THE NHC FORECAST PREDICTS A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS AS FRANK IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND BECOME
A SHALLOW SYSTEM.

AN AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SITE MAINTAINED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY
ON SOCORRO ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 38 KT AND A
PRESSURE OF 997.5 MB.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 18.2N 111.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 18.6N 112.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 19.2N 113.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 19.9N 114.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 20.7N 114.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 21.6N 114.3W 35 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 22.7N 114.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 01/0000Z 24.0N 114.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[supercane]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 271431
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANK ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010

...FRANK WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 112.0W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST. FRANK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FRANK IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FRANK IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 271430
TCMEP4
HURRICANE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 112.0W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 112.0W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 111.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.3N 112.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.0N 113.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.8N 114.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.2N 114.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 23.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 112.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 271431
TCDEP4
HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010

FRANK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SMALL
AREA OF PULSATING DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BANDING FEATURES. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 3.5 AND 4.5 RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH
THE DVORAK RULES SPECIFY 77 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...THESE
RULES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO YIELD A HIGH BIAS FOR WEAKENING TROPICAL
CYCLONES. USING A BLEND OF T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY
VALUES...THE WIND SPEED IS SET TO 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WITH
THE CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS A GRADIENT OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...STEADY WEAKENING IS PREDICTED. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE
RATHER CLOSELY. FRANK IS PREDICTED TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER THIS EVENT COULD EASILY OCCUR
SOONER.

FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF FRANK HAS NOT
MOVED AS FAR TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS EARLIER ESTIMATED...AND THIS
REQUIRES A SLIGHT EASTWARD RELOCATION FOR THIS PACKAGE. BASED ON
THE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK...THE FORWARD MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO
HAVE SLOWED TO NEAR 5 KT. EVEN FURTHER DECELERATION IS LIKELY AS
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN
DUE TO A DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA. SINCE THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE REDUCED TO A SHALLOW CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS... IT WILL
PROBABLY NOT RESPOND MUCH TO THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED TO A CRAWL LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 18.8N 112.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 19.3N 112.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 20.0N 113.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 20.8N 114.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 21.2N 114.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 01/1200Z 23.0N 114.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 271431
PWSEP4
HURRICANE FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 2 7 14 25 33 41
TROP DEPRESSION 1 16 31 37 39 37 36
TROPICAL STORM 86 75 57 44 33 28 22
HURRICANE 13 7 5 5 3 2 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 12 6 5 4 3 2 1
HUR CAT 2 1 1 1 1 X X X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 45KT 40KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)

LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

ISLA CLARION 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13)

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[supercane]

65 kts may be too high. Frank caught in the act of public exposure:

[KWT]

Yeah I'd imagine this one is somewhere around 55kts and probably winding down at a decent clip, getting a rather sheared look now for sure!

[cycloneye]

KWT, do you have the ACE that Frank has gotten so far and the EPAC totals to then update at the TT thread?