EPAC: Ex-Tropical Depression FRANK

[HURAKAN]

KWT, do you have the ACE that Frank has gotten so far and the EPAC totals to then update at the TT thread?

Code: Select all

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1    23.7    Celia    4    2.72    Blas
2    10.8    Darby    5    3.94    Estelle
3    3.52    Frank    6    0.53    Agatha
Total: 44.14 (0)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Pacif ... ane_season

[cycloneye]

KWT, do you have the ACE that Frank has gotten so far and the EPAC totals to then update at the TT thread?

Code: Select all

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1    23.7    Celia    4    2.72    Blas
2    10.8    Darby    5    3.94    Estelle
3    3.52    Frank    6    0.53    Agatha
Total: 44.14 (0)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Pacif ... ane_season

The update for Frank there is until August 25

[HURAKAN]

EP, 09, 2010082718, , BEST, 0, 190N, 1121W, 55, 994, TS

18z ... down to ts

[supercane]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 272034
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANK ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010

...FRANK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...NOW A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 112.2W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. FRANK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND FRANK WILL PROBABLY BECOME A DEPRESSION BY LATE
SATURDAY...OR SOONER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


000
WTPZ24 KNHC 272034
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 112.2W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 112.2W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.9N 112.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.7N 113.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.5N 113.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.2N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTPZ44 KNHC 272034
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010

FRANK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH RATHER DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS FRANK MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND CONTINUES
TO BE IMPACTED BY EASTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
NOW SHOWS THE SYSTEM BEING REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM MODEL
PREDICTION. GIVEN THE CURRENT RATE OF WEAKENING...HOWEVER...FRANK
COULD DEGENERATE BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS EVEN SOONER THAN
INDICATED HERE.

THE CENTER IS MOSTLY EXPOSED AND IS NOW EASY TO FIND ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 320/5. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH DIGS INTO CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST ON THIS
PACKAGE TO BE CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IN 3-4 DAYS...
FRANK WILL PROBABLY BE SO WEAK THAT IT WILL BE RESPONDING MAINLY TO
SHALLOW-LAYER STEERING. BY THAT TIME FRAME...THE NHC FORECAST
MERELY SHOWS A VERY SLOW...OR NO...MOTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 19.3N 112.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.9N 112.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 20.7N 113.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 113.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 22.2N 112.8W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 30/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 31/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010

ONLY A SMALL SPOT OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT
OF FRANK...OTHERWISE THE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DROPPING AS FAST AS THE RULES ALLOW. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 45 KT...AND THAT MAY BE GENEROUS.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS PROBABLE DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR
AND THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND NOW SHOWS FRANK
DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/6. A GENTLE TURN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF FRANK. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED EASTWARD ON THIS RUN...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.
DISSIPATION OF THIS SMALL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT FOUR
DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 19.8N 112.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 20.5N 112.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 21.2N 112.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 21.6N 112.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 30/0000Z 21.9N 112.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 31/0000Z 22.0N 111.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[lester]

Best track down to 35 kts.

[WeatherGuesser]

Frank seems to be more or less stuck in place for now.

[supercane]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 281438
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 28 2010

...FRANK BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 112.3W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE REMNANT LOW OF FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE REMNANT LOW OF
FRANK IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


000
WTPZ24 KNHC 281437
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 112.3W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 112.3W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 112.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.3N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.7N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.9N 111.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 112.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 281439
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 28 2010

FRANK HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND WHAT
REMAINS IS A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. BASED ON THE
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR A WHILE NOW...FRANK NO LONGER QUALIFIES
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW ON THIS
ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION STILL
APPEARS VIGOROUS...AND THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ONLY
LOWERED TO 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/6...TO THE EAST AND A BIT FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD STEER
THE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW OF FRANK NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY
OR TWO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.8N 112.3W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.3N 112.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 29/1200Z 21.7N 112.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 30/0000Z 21.9N 111.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN