EPAC: Ex-Tropical Depression FRANK

[Chacor]

A NEARLY STATIONARY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

ABPZ20 KNHC 211730
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...LOCATED ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LOWRY/BRENNAN

[KWT]

This is looking decent, looks like the EPAC is once again trying to develop a system, lets see how far it gets this time round!

[supercane]

Still has some organizing to do looking at MW imagery:

[KWT]

Its looking pretty impressive on the Vis imagery though to be fair!

[supercane]

True. Also appears to have circ based on ASCAT pass:

[KWT]

Looks like a broad ciculation there, probably does justify a High Risk warning for development but probably doesn't quite make it to depression status just yet, but its close, I'd go with 80% now...

[cycloneye]

NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep932010_ep092010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008211938
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP


TD Nine-E at 2 PM PDT.

EP, 09, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 139N, 930W, 25, 1007, TD

[KWT]

Well there ya go they've gone right with a TD...

There have been alot of these close to CA systems this season so far, lets see if this one actually gets further then the last one!

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 212038
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MULTIPLE CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE
INITIATED AT THIS TIME...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AT 1800 UTC.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM...AS THE DEPRESSION IS SITUATED
BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND OVER VERY WARM WATERS OF
ALMOST 30C. BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE INTENSITY OF THE
CYCLONE WILL BE PRIMARY DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH IT INTERACTS WITH
THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE
CENTER WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL IN THE
SHORT TERM AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT...AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING WESTWARD MOTION OVER
THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW THE CYCLONE
MOVING ONSHORE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS THE DEPRESSION INTERACTING
WITH A SECOND VORTEX DURING THIS TIME THAT NONE OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE SHOWS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD
MOTION FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE RIDGE LIFTS NORTH. THIS
SOLUTION REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE...EXCLUDING THE GFS. THIS INITIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS
LARGER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE WEAK INITIAL STEERING
PATTERN AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH THE MONSOON FLOW AND LAND.

GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 13.9N 93.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 13.9N 93.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 13.8N 94.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 13.7N 95.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 13.7N 96.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 14.0N 98.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 15.0N 101.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 103.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[KWT]

I reckon this one will become our next storm in the EPAC basin, and I wouldn't be shocked to see this become a hurricane providing the easterly shear doesn't pick up again.

[Macrocane]

I agree that this could be the first hurricane in almost 2 months on the EPAC basin, I'm sursprised how fast it developed.

[CrazyC83]

Is this the same system that failed in the Caribbean?

[KWT]

Hmmm I'm not sure to be honest Crazy, it may well be part of the same general gyre though?

[lester]

I always thought it was 91E..

[supercane]

Continues to produce deep convection:



And improved appearance on microwave as seen on Aqua pass:

[KWT]

Looking better and better, quite possibly isn't that far off from being a TS based on those images there!

[cycloneye]

WTPZ34 KNHC 212349
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010

...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 93.5W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ WESTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE
CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ WESTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE
CHACAHUA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...
4 KM/HR. A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Cyclenall]

Out of the three tropical depressions active in the western hemisphere, this one is by far the most interesting. It's in a good spot and isn't moving very quickly so this one has good potential to blow up to a major hurricane. It looks to be 30 knots now and should become a TS at any time now. Spiral banding looks great and the center is rapidly improving in organization.