000
WTPZ44 KNHC 230256
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010
THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF FRANK HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE HAVE
WEAKENED WHILE INCREASED BANDING IS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50
KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 55 KT
FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.
RECENT FIXES FROM CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
THAT FRANK IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. MOST OF THE TRACK
MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE REMAINS LARGE SPREAD IN
THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED OF FRANK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR AT LEAST A STEADY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE
FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE REGIONAL
HURRICANE MODELS. GIVEN THE LARGE UNCERTAINLY AT 72 HOURS AND
BEYOND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE TVCN
CONSENSUS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DESPITE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY
SHEAR IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS BRING FRANK TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN TWO DAYS. THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS SHOW A
LITTLE LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN THEY DID BEFORE. THE UPDATED
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.
GIVEN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 14.0N 96.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 14.2N 97.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 14.6N 99.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 15.2N 101.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 15.7N 102.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 16.7N 104.6W 75 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 17.7N 107.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 18.5N 110.0W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
EPAC: Ex-Tropical Depression FRANK
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm FRANK
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Dvorak classification up per SSD:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/1145 UTC 14.3N 97.9W T3.5/3.5 FRANK
23/0545 UTC 14.3N 97.4W T3.0/3.0 FRANK
22/2345 UTC 13.8N 96.3W T3.0/3.0 FRANK
but best track from ATCF holding steady:
EP, 09, 2010082306, , BEST, 0, 142N, 971W, 50, 998, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1008, 150, 20, 60, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FRANK, M,
EP, 09, 2010082312, , BEST, 0, 143N, 978W, 50, 998, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 40, 40, 1008, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FRANK, M,
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/1145 UTC 14.3N 97.9W T3.5/3.5 FRANK
23/0545 UTC 14.3N 97.4W T3.0/3.0 FRANK
22/2345 UTC 13.8N 96.3W T3.0/3.0 FRANK
but best track from ATCF holding steady:
EP, 09, 2010082306, , BEST, 0, 142N, 971W, 50, 998, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1008, 150, 20, 60, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FRANK, M,
EP, 09, 2010082312, , BEST, 0, 143N, 978W, 50, 998, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 40, 40, 1008, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FRANK, M,
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Except for shallow BAM, Guidance parallels Mexican coast:
Code: Select all
144
WHXX01 KMIA 231248
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1248 UTC MON AUG 23 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK (EP092010) 20100823 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100823 1200 100824 0000 100824 1200 100825 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 97.8W 14.5N 98.4W 14.8N 98.8W 15.3N 99.1W
BAMD 14.3N 97.8W 14.5N 99.2W 14.6N 100.9W 15.1N 102.5W
BAMM 14.3N 97.8W 14.3N 98.9W 14.2N 100.2W 14.3N 101.2W
LBAR 14.3N 97.8W 14.5N 99.4W 15.0N 101.3W 15.8N 103.6W
SHIP 50KTS 54KTS 59KTS 64KTS
DSHP 50KTS 54KTS 59KTS 64KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100825 1200 100826 1200 100827 1200 100828 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 99.4W 17.3N 99.3W 18.5N 100.0W 19.4N 101.0W
BAMD 15.4N 104.0W 16.1N 106.2W 17.5N 108.2W 19.2N 110.0W
BAMM 14.5N 102.0W 15.9N 102.1W 17.0N 102.5W 17.4N 102.8W
LBAR 16.7N 105.9W 18.6N 110.3W 20.3N 113.4W 21.8N 115.0W
SHIP 69KTS 63KTS 60KTS 54KTS
DSHP 69KTS 63KTS 60KTS 54KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 97.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 96.4W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 95.0W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 998MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 40NM
$$
NNNN
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Looks a bit of a mess there supercane at least in terms of the convective organisation on that image, but then again images can be deciving at times I suppose.
SHIPS slowly coming down with regards to the forecasted strength as well now.
SHIPS slowly coming down with regards to the forecasted strength as well now.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
I'm feeling wobbly this morning (lol)...
The NHC has me up to a Cat 1 in a day or two, but that's probably on the outside, in my opinion (upper body strength was never my strong suit)...
Frank
The NHC has me up to a Cat 1 in a day or two, but that's probably on the outside, in my opinion (upper body strength was never my strong suit)...
Frank
Last edited by Frank2 on Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:11 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re:
KWT wrote:Looks a bit of a mess there supercane at least in terms of the convective organisation on that image, but then again images can be deciving at times I suppose.
SHIPS slowly coming down with regards to the forecasted strength as well now.
No need to be circumspect--it is what it is: a sheared system. I doubt microwave will surprise us as far as organizational structure. From yesterday's Danielle kerfuffle, all I can say is, "Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results"...except when they are.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm FRANK
MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 AM PDT MON AUG 23 2010
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK HAS ERODED CONSIDERABLY
NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF AT
LEAST 25 KT. OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA SHIP NWS0020 TO THE NORTH OF
AND SHIP A8SG2 SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER ALSO INDICATE THAT THE WIND
FIELD HAS NOT EXPANDED AS FAR AS PREVIOUS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC WERE T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 50 KT DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED DECREASE IN CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION.
MICROWAVE FIX POSITIONS SUGGEST THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/07. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND DESERT SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD KEEP FRANK MOVING IN A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN
COAST. BY DAY 5...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
PERHAPS A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE IS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. AS A RESULT...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY DURING THAT
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY 72-96 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KT AND ALSO SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM AND GFDL/HWRF INTENSITY
MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN HIGHER THAN THE MODELS AFTER
THAT DUE TO THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR.
BASED ON SHIP REPORTS INDICATING A SMALLER WIND FIELD...NO CHANGES
TO THE EXISTING TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH AREA FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ARE REQUIRED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 14.4N 98.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 14.7N 99.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 15.2N 100.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 15.9N 102.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 16.7N 103.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 17.9N 106.7W 65 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 18.9N 109.6W 70 KT
120HR VT 28/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 AM PDT MON AUG 23 2010
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK HAS ERODED CONSIDERABLY
NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF AT
LEAST 25 KT. OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA SHIP NWS0020 TO THE NORTH OF
AND SHIP A8SG2 SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER ALSO INDICATE THAT THE WIND
FIELD HAS NOT EXPANDED AS FAR AS PREVIOUS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC WERE T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 50 KT DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED DECREASE IN CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION.
MICROWAVE FIX POSITIONS SUGGEST THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/07. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND DESERT SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD KEEP FRANK MOVING IN A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN
COAST. BY DAY 5...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
PERHAPS A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE IS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. AS A RESULT...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY DURING THAT
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY 72-96 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KT AND ALSO SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM AND GFDL/HWRF INTENSITY
MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN HIGHER THAN THE MODELS AFTER
THAT DUE TO THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR.
BASED ON SHIP REPORTS INDICATING A SMALLER WIND FIELD...NO CHANGES
TO THE EXISTING TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH AREA FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ARE REQUIRED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 14.4N 98.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 14.7N 99.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 15.2N 100.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 15.9N 102.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 16.7N 103.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 17.9N 106.7W 65 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 18.9N 109.6W 70 KT
120HR VT 28/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm FRANK
TROPICAL STORM FRANK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 23 2010
...FRANK WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 98.7W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM S OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO
ZIHUATANEJO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST. FRANK IS
MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FRANK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY. IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT FRANK COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL REGION OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 23 2010
...FRANK WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 98.7W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM S OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO
ZIHUATANEJO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST. FRANK IS
MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FRANK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY. IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT FRANK COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL REGION OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm FRANK
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 232042
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
200 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2010
THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK HAS CONTINUED TO
ERODE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEST CONVECTION
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
AT 1800 UTC...AND THAT WILL BE THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS INDICATE FRANK HAS
BEEN MOVING AT 285/08...AFTER SMOOTHING THROUGH SOME RATHER LARGE
WOBBLES. THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP FRANK OFFSHORE AND ON A TRACK PARALLEL
THE MEXICAN COAST. BY DAY 5...A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
PERHAPS A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS FRANK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...THAT
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE...ANY SUSTAINED
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 48 HOURS WHEN
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 15 KT. HOWEVER...BY 120 HOURS...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS/LGEM AND GFDL/HWRF INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS...
AND THEN HIGHER THAN THE MODELS AFTER THAT DUE AN EXPECTED DECREASE
IN THE SHEAR.
NEARBY SHIP REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FRANK POSSESSES A SMALL
WIND FIELD. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE EXISTING TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AND WARNING AREAS FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ARE
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 14.9N 99.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 15.2N 100.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 15.8N 101.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 16.5N 103.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 17.2N 105.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 18.3N 107.8W 65 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 113.0W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTPZ44 KNHC 232042
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
200 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2010
THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK HAS CONTINUED TO
ERODE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEST CONVECTION
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
AT 1800 UTC...AND THAT WILL BE THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS INDICATE FRANK HAS
BEEN MOVING AT 285/08...AFTER SMOOTHING THROUGH SOME RATHER LARGE
WOBBLES. THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP FRANK OFFSHORE AND ON A TRACK PARALLEL
THE MEXICAN COAST. BY DAY 5...A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
PERHAPS A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS FRANK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...THAT
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE...ANY SUSTAINED
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 48 HOURS WHEN
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 15 KT. HOWEVER...BY 120 HOURS...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS/LGEM AND GFDL/HWRF INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS...
AND THEN HIGHER THAN THE MODELS AFTER THAT DUE AN EXPECTED DECREASE
IN THE SHEAR.
NEARBY SHIP REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FRANK POSSESSES A SMALL
WIND FIELD. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE EXISTING TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AND WARNING AREAS FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ARE
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 14.9N 99.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 15.2N 100.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 15.8N 101.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 16.5N 103.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 17.2N 105.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 18.3N 107.8W 65 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 113.0W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139065
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm FRANK
ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
500 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2010
...CENTER OF FRANK PASSING WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 99.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SW OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.6 WEST. FRANK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL REGION OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
500 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2010
...CENTER OF FRANK PASSING WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 99.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SW OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.6 WEST. FRANK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL REGION OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Holding its own against the persistent easterly shear:
Dvorak classification the same from SSD:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/2345 UTC 15.2N 99.3W T3.0/3.5 FRANK
23/1745 UTC 14.7N 98.8W T3.0/3.5 FRANK
And best track holds steady too:
EP, 09, 2010082318, , BEST, 0, 148N, 989W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1009, 150, 20, 55, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FRANK, M, 12, NEQ, 120, 120, 150, 150
EP, 09, 2010082400, , BEST, 0, 151N, 997W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1007, 130, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FRANK, M,
Dvorak classification the same from SSD:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/2345 UTC 15.2N 99.3W T3.0/3.5 FRANK
23/1745 UTC 14.7N 98.8W T3.0/3.5 FRANK
And best track holds steady too:
EP, 09, 2010082318, , BEST, 0, 148N, 989W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1009, 150, 20, 55, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FRANK, M, 12, NEQ, 120, 120, 150, 150
EP, 09, 2010082400, , BEST, 0, 151N, 997W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1007, 130, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FRANK, M,
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139065
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm FRANK
KNHC 240238
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2010
AFTER APPEARING RATHER RAGGED EARLIER TODAY...DEEP CONVECTION HAS
REDEVELOPED AND PERSISTED OVER THE CENTER OF FRANK DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT
MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL
DIAGNOSES ABOUT 20-25 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER FRANK. THE SHEAR
IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE A LITTLE...BUT REMAIN AROUND 15
KT UNTIL THE CYCLONE APPROACHES COOLER WATER IN 3-4 DAYS. SINCE THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL THROUGH 36
HOURS...AND IS CLOSE TO A GFDL/SHIPS/LGEM CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.
FRANK HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/8 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM BEFORE. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP FRANK ON A TRACK PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS.
SINCE FRANK IS NOT EXPECTED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER IN SIZE
AND THERE IS NOW HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE
CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO HAVE DECREASED. THEREFORE...THE GOVERNMENT OF
MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH.
ONSHORE MONSOONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WELL TO THE EAST OF FRANK IS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS...WHILE NOT DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO
FRANK...COULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.2N 100.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 15.6N 101.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 16.2N 102.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 16.9N 104.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 17.7N 106.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 18.8N 109.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 19.8N 111.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 20.5N 113.0W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2010
AFTER APPEARING RATHER RAGGED EARLIER TODAY...DEEP CONVECTION HAS
REDEVELOPED AND PERSISTED OVER THE CENTER OF FRANK DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT
MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL
DIAGNOSES ABOUT 20-25 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER FRANK. THE SHEAR
IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE A LITTLE...BUT REMAIN AROUND 15
KT UNTIL THE CYCLONE APPROACHES COOLER WATER IN 3-4 DAYS. SINCE THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL THROUGH 36
HOURS...AND IS CLOSE TO A GFDL/SHIPS/LGEM CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.
FRANK HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/8 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM BEFORE. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP FRANK ON A TRACK PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS.
SINCE FRANK IS NOT EXPECTED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER IN SIZE
AND THERE IS NOW HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE
CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO HAVE DECREASED. THEREFORE...THE GOVERNMENT OF
MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH.
ONSHORE MONSOONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WELL TO THE EAST OF FRANK IS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS...WHILE NOT DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO
FRANK...COULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.2N 100.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 15.6N 101.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 16.2N 102.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 16.9N 104.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 17.7N 106.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 18.8N 109.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 19.8N 111.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 20.5N 113.0W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Highlights: TS warnings discontinued and TS watch hoisted; maybe some restrengthening
ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANK ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2010
...FRANK PARALLELING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 100.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EAST OF ACAPULCO. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD
TO ZIHUATANEJO HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.1 WEST. FRANK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL REGION OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
0300 UTC TUE AUG 24 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EAST OF ACAPULCO. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD
TO ZIHUATANEJO HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.1W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.1W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 99.7W
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.6N 101.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.2N 102.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.9N 104.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.7N 106.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 19.8N 111.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 100.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANK ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2010
...FRANK PARALLELING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 100.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EAST OF ACAPULCO. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD
TO ZIHUATANEJO HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.1 WEST. FRANK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL REGION OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
0300 UTC TUE AUG 24 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EAST OF ACAPULCO. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD
TO ZIHUATANEJO HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.1W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.1W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 99.7W
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.6N 101.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.2N 102.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.9N 104.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.7N 106.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 19.8N 111.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 100.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm FRANK
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 241141
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
500 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2010
...FRANK MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER AND GETTING A BETTER
ORGANIZED...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 101.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.1 WEST. FRANK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ON
WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTPZ34 KNHC 241141
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
500 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2010
...FRANK MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER AND GETTING A BETTER
ORGANIZED...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 101.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.1 WEST. FRANK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ON
WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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