000
WTNT31 KNHC 300250
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...DANIELLE MOVING SLOWER AND WEAKENING OVER THE OPEN NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 53.0W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.0 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH
NEAR BERMUDA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT21 KNHC 300241
TCMAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 53.0W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......210NE 270SE 180SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 600SE 600SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 53.0W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 53.7W
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 40.8N 51.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 180SW 210NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 42.0N 47.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 270SE 180SW 210NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 43.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 270SE 180SW 210NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 45.1N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 51.5N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 60.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 53.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT41 KNHC 300250
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY ERODED INTO AN ELONGATED BAND IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER
AND TAKES ON THE APPEARANCE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...
A UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 29/2133 UTC STILL INDICATED
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE...AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 87 KT AND
A PRESSURE OF 968 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF
THE AMSU ESTIMATE AND A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB.
DANIELLE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN SOME DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/14. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT DANIELLE HAS CLEARLY BEEN CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND THE FLOW PATTERN IS EVOLVING INTO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH TYPICALLY MOVES SLOWER THAN A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS LATITUDE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON DANIELLE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OR EVEN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15-20 KT FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWARD BY DAYS
3 AND 4 AS A LARGER AND STRONGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND ACTS TO KICK OUT THE EXTRATROPICAL
DANIELLE CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...AFTER THAT.
DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER
MUCH COOLER WATER THAT LIES NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GET A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY BY 72 HOURS
FROM THE LARGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMING OUT OF CANADA...
WHICH WILL HELP THE EX-DANIELLE CIRCULATION REMAIN LARGE AND FAIRLY
STRONG OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES.
THE 34-KT WIND RADII REMAIN LARGE AND ARE UNCHANGED BASED ON LIMITED
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE. 12-FT SEAS
RADII WERE SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM TAFB AND THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 39.3N 53.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 40.8N 51.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 42.0N 47.4W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 31/1200Z 43.5N 42.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 01/0000Z 45.1N 34.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 02/0000Z 51.5N 27.5W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 03/0000Z 60.0N 30.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
000
WTNT31 KNHC 300843
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010
...DANIELLE WEAKENING AND QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.4N 52.0W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DANIELLE IS STILL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...BUT ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY...AND BECOME A LARGE AND
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH
NEAR BERMUDA LATER TODAY. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT21 KNHC 300841
TCMAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
0900 UTC MON AUG 30 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 52.0W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......240NE 270SE 180SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 600SE 600SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 52.0W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 52.5W
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 41.6N 49.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 180SW 240NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 42.7N 44.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 270SE 180SW 210NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 44.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 50NW.
34 KT...220NE 270SE 180SW 210NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 46.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 53.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 63.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.4N 52.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT41 KNHC 300841
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
AS DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER
AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 65 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND A 30/0449Z AMSU OVERPASS THAT INDICATED
DANIELLE STILL POSSESSED A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF AN EARLIER 29/2133Z AMSU OVERPASS THAT YIELDED AN INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 87 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. DANIELLE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY A
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15-20 KT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...A LARGER AND STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND HELP TO ACCELERATE WHAT WILL BE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK IS
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
DANIELLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER COOLER WATER THAT WILL BE APPROACHING 20C. BY 72 HOURS...WHAT
WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE AT THAT TIME MAY STRENGTHEN
SOME AS BAROCLINIC ENERGY GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE MUCH
LARGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING OUT OF
NORTHEASTERN CANADA. THE EX-DANIELLE CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN
LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ALREADY LARGE 34-KT WIND RADII
AND THE 12-FT SEAS RADII BASED ON A FEW SURROUNDING BUOY
OBSERVATIONS...AND ON 29/2344Z AND 30/0134 ASCAT WINDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 40.4N 52.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 41.6N 49.3W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 31/0600Z 42.7N 44.3W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 31/1800Z 44.0N 38.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 01/0600Z 46.0N 32.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 02/0600Z 53.0N 26.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 03/0600Z 63.0N 32.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
FONT11 KNHC 300842
PWSAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
0900 UTC MON AUG 30 2010
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
40.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 2 4 6 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 2 5 7 11 12 17 NA
TROPICAL STORM 84 74 67 60 55 55 NA
HURRICANE 14 21 25 27 30 22 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 14 20 21 22 22 17 NA
HUR CAT 2 X 2 4 4 5 4 NA
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 2 1 NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 55KT 55KT 55KT 55KT 50KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT31 KNHC 300843
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010
...DANIELLE WEAKENING AND QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.4N 52.0W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DANIELLE IS STILL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...BUT ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY...AND BECOME A LARGE AND
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH
NEAR BERMUDA LATER TODAY. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT21 KNHC 300841
TCMAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
0900 UTC MON AUG 30 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 52.0W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......240NE 270SE 180SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 600SE 600SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 52.0W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 52.5W
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 41.6N 49.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 180SW 240NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 42.7N 44.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 270SE 180SW 210NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 44.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 50NW.
34 KT...220NE 270SE 180SW 210NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 46.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 53.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 63.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.4N 52.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT41 KNHC 300841
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
AS DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER
AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 65 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND A 30/0449Z AMSU OVERPASS THAT INDICATED
DANIELLE STILL POSSESSED A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF AN EARLIER 29/2133Z AMSU OVERPASS THAT YIELDED AN INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 87 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. DANIELLE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY A
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15-20 KT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...A LARGER AND STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND HELP TO ACCELERATE WHAT WILL BE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK IS
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
DANIELLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER COOLER WATER THAT WILL BE APPROACHING 20C. BY 72 HOURS...WHAT
WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE AT THAT TIME MAY STRENGTHEN
SOME AS BAROCLINIC ENERGY GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE MUCH
LARGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING OUT OF
NORTHEASTERN CANADA. THE EX-DANIELLE CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN
LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ALREADY LARGE 34-KT WIND RADII
AND THE 12-FT SEAS RADII BASED ON A FEW SURROUNDING BUOY
OBSERVATIONS...AND ON 29/2344Z AND 30/0134 ASCAT WINDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 40.4N 52.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 41.6N 49.3W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 31/0600Z 42.7N 44.3W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 31/1800Z 44.0N 38.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 01/0600Z 46.0N 32.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 02/0600Z 53.0N 26.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 03/0600Z 63.0N 32.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
FONT11 KNHC 300842
PWSAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
0900 UTC MON AUG 30 2010
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
40.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 2 4 6 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 2 5 7 11 12 17 NA
TROPICAL STORM 84 74 67 60 55 55 NA
HURRICANE 14 21 25 27 30 22 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 14 20 21 22 22 17 NA
HUR CAT 2 X 2 4 4 5 4 NA
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 2 1 NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 55KT 55KT 55KT 55KT 50KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes
000
WTNT31 KNHC 301448
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010
...DANIELLE MAINTAINING HURRICANE STATUS IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 50.7W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.7 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION AT A FASTER SPEED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...DANIELLE WILL STILL REMAIN
A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE WAVES...AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH
NEAR BERMUDA LATER TODAY. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES
EAST COAST. ADDITIONALLY...WAVES NEAR 10 FEET...3 METERS...ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND
OF NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG
000
WTNT21 KNHC 301446
TCMAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 50.7W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......240NE 270SE 180SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 600SE 600SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 50.7W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.6N 51.7W
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 41.9N 47.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 210NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 43.4N 41.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 240SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 46.0N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 240SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 48.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 240SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 53.0N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...300NE 270SE 150SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 61.5N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N 50.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG
000
WTNT41 KNHC 301449
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO
SUBSIDE...WITH THE REMAINING COOL CLOUD TOPS OCCURRING IN THE
NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. USING A SHEAR PATTERN...THE TAFB DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATED A 4.0...OR 65 KT.
SIMILARLY...TWO AMSU MEASUREMENTS OF THE WARM CORE ALSO SUGGESTED
70-75 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
FINALLY...SHIP WCZ5528 AT 13Z REPORTED 64 KT WINDS...974 MB
PRESSURE...AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 52 FEET. DANIELLE
REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.
DANIELLE IS IN THE MIDST OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND INDEED THE
ENVIRONMENT CANADA BUOY 44140 IS HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS ALONG WITH THE USE OF THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC FORCING ARRIVES THIS
EVENING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE CYCLONE AFTER TRANSITION
WITH PEAK INTENSITY JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE.
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KT. THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME CAPTURED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH
SHOULD ACCELERATE IT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST BY DAYS THREE AND
FOUR IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FIVE. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER
PROVIDED POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE
EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF DANIELLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 40.9N 50.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 41.9N 47.7W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 31/1200Z 43.4N 41.2W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 01/0000Z 46.0N 31.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 01/1200Z 48.0N 24.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 02/1200Z 53.0N 21.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 03/1200Z 61.5N 38.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG
000
FONT11 KNHC 301448
PWSAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 2 8 11 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 2 5 7 11 21 25 NA
TROPICAL STORM 84 74 67 60 54 50 NA
HURRICANE 14 21 25 27 18 14 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 14 20 21 22 14 12 NA
HUR CAT 2 X 2 4 4 3 2 NA
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 1 NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 55KT 55KT 55KT 45KT 40KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG
WTNT31 KNHC 301448
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010
...DANIELLE MAINTAINING HURRICANE STATUS IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 50.7W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.7 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION AT A FASTER SPEED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...DANIELLE WILL STILL REMAIN
A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE WAVES...AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH
NEAR BERMUDA LATER TODAY. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES
EAST COAST. ADDITIONALLY...WAVES NEAR 10 FEET...3 METERS...ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND
OF NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG
000
WTNT21 KNHC 301446
TCMAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 50.7W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......240NE 270SE 180SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 600SE 600SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 50.7W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.6N 51.7W
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 41.9N 47.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 210NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 43.4N 41.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 240SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 46.0N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 240SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 48.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 240SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 53.0N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...300NE 270SE 150SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 61.5N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N 50.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG
000
WTNT41 KNHC 301449
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO
SUBSIDE...WITH THE REMAINING COOL CLOUD TOPS OCCURRING IN THE
NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. USING A SHEAR PATTERN...THE TAFB DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATED A 4.0...OR 65 KT.
SIMILARLY...TWO AMSU MEASUREMENTS OF THE WARM CORE ALSO SUGGESTED
70-75 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
FINALLY...SHIP WCZ5528 AT 13Z REPORTED 64 KT WINDS...974 MB
PRESSURE...AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 52 FEET. DANIELLE
REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.
DANIELLE IS IN THE MIDST OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND INDEED THE
ENVIRONMENT CANADA BUOY 44140 IS HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS ALONG WITH THE USE OF THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC FORCING ARRIVES THIS
EVENING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE CYCLONE AFTER TRANSITION
WITH PEAK INTENSITY JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE.
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KT. THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME CAPTURED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH
SHOULD ACCELERATE IT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST BY DAYS THREE AND
FOUR IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FIVE. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER
PROVIDED POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE
EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF DANIELLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 40.9N 50.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 41.9N 47.7W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 31/1200Z 43.4N 41.2W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 01/0000Z 46.0N 31.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 01/1200Z 48.0N 24.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 02/1200Z 53.0N 21.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 03/1200Z 61.5N 38.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG
000
FONT11 KNHC 301448
PWSAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 2 8 11 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 2 5 7 11 21 25 NA
TROPICAL STORM 84 74 67 60 54 50 NA
HURRICANE 14 21 25 27 18 14 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 14 20 21 22 14 12 NA
HUR CAT 2 X 2 4 4 3 2 NA
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 1 NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 55KT 55KT 55KT 45KT 40KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010
DANIELLE IS STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC SINCE
YESTERDAY AND RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE. USING A SHEAR PATTERN...THE TAFB DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATED A 3.5...OR 55 KT. AN AMSU
MEASUREMENT OF THE WARM CORE INDICATED 62 KT AT 1616Z USING THE
CIMSS TECHNIQUE. BASED UPON A BLEND OF THESE...DANIELLE IS
DOWNGRADED TO A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. A 1340Z ASCAT
PASS ALLOWED US TO CONTRACT IN THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII
SOMEWHAT.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD PROCEED QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ALL
AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ALONG WITH THE USE OF THE FSU CYCLONE
PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL BY EARLY TUESDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONE
DEVELOPS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. DANIELLE SHOULD
REMAIN A LARGE CYCLONE AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH PEAK
INTENSITY JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE FOR A DAY OR SO.
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT.
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME CAPTURED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE IT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY DAY THREE IS
ANTICIPATED AND THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR. THE TRACK FORECAST DURING THE
EXTRATROPICAL PHASE IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE REVISED TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED
POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL
PORTION OF DANIELLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 41.3N 49.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 42.0N 45.5W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 31/1800Z 43.0N 38.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 01/0600Z 45.5N 30.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 01/1800Z 48.0N 23.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 02/1800Z 55.5N 23.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010
DANIELLE IS STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC SINCE
YESTERDAY AND RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE. USING A SHEAR PATTERN...THE TAFB DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATED A 3.5...OR 55 KT. AN AMSU
MEASUREMENT OF THE WARM CORE INDICATED 62 KT AT 1616Z USING THE
CIMSS TECHNIQUE. BASED UPON A BLEND OF THESE...DANIELLE IS
DOWNGRADED TO A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. A 1340Z ASCAT
PASS ALLOWED US TO CONTRACT IN THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII
SOMEWHAT.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD PROCEED QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ALL
AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ALONG WITH THE USE OF THE FSU CYCLONE
PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL BY EARLY TUESDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONE
DEVELOPS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. DANIELLE SHOULD
REMAIN A LARGE CYCLONE AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH PEAK
INTENSITY JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE FOR A DAY OR SO.
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT.
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME CAPTURED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE IT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY DAY THREE IS
ANTICIPATED AND THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR. THE TRACK FORECAST DURING THE
EXTRATROPICAL PHASE IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE REVISED TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED
POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL
PORTION OF DANIELLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 41.3N 49.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 42.0N 45.5W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 31/1800Z 43.0N 38.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 01/0600Z 45.5N 30.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 01/1800Z 48.0N 23.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 02/1800Z 55.5N 23.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
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- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
858
WTNT21 KNHC 310235
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
0300 UTC TUE AUG 31 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 47.1W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 550SE 450SW 340NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 47.1W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 48.0W
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 42.3N 41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 270SE 240SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 44.3N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 180SE 150SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 270SE 240SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 47.0N 26.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 50.7N 22.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...ABSORBED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.3N 47.1W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
WTNT21 KNHC 310235
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
0300 UTC TUE AUG 31 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 47.1W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 550SE 450SW 340NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 47.1W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 48.0W
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 42.3N 41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 270SE 240SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 44.3N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 180SE 150SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 270SE 240SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 47.0N 26.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 50.7N 22.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...ABSORBED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.3N 47.1W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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